Benjamin Morel is a lecturer in public law at the University of Paris II Panthéon-Assas.
FIGAROVOX. - Marine Le Pen was received as a Head of State by Viktor Orban yesterday in Hungary. Can this position abroad allow the RN candidate to strengthen her presidential stature?
Benjamin MOREL. -
This is the main objective of this visit. Traditionally, candidates tour the heads of foreign governments. It should be understood that a campaign is won, unfortunately, rarely on a program. It is won on a few strong ideas and on an incarnation. A candidate who seems to be discussing on an equal footing with a foreign head of government begins to symbolically change. Of course, this is only a staging, but this gives credibility to the stature by making it more visualizable and familiar. Marine Le Pen had already tried it, with Vladimir Poutine, in 2017. Still, the foreign dignitary must agree to receive you. This restricts the diplomatic space of candidate of the National Rally ... From this point of view,the departure of Matteo Salvini and Donald Trump leaves a great void for her.
The other goal is to stand alongside whoever is the most popular and resilient representative of the “populist” current in Europe. Viktor Orban was Prime Minister from 1998 to 2002. He was Prime Minister again in 2010 on clearly populist software and has not left office since. Even if it is now tending to restructure itself, its opposition has long been exploded like a puzzle. His party, Fidesz, structurally understands the 50% in opinion polls and in elections. His membership of the European People's Party (the main right-wing party of which the French Republicans and the German CDU / CSU are also members) enabled him to obtain, until recently, a sort of European immunity certificate. He was thus able to go much further in theopposition with Brussels than Poland, without real retaliatory measures. In Viktor Orban, Marine Le Pen seeks proof by example that what she proposes is possible, since already achieved elsewhere.
Viktor Orban has set up a savage liberalism, one of the least protective models in Europe, which would undoubtedly frighten the most pro-business voters of Marine Le Pen… not to mention the popular classes.
Benjamin Morel
Asked about Hungarian anti-LGBT laws, Marine Le Pen claims to be “against any sexual proselytism towards children”. Is the candidate in the process of “straightening out” her speech on societal issues?
The concern lies in the fact that, beyond the position concerning the Union and the immigration file, there are actually quite a few hooks between Marine Le Pen and Viktor Orban.
The latter has set up a savage liberalism, one of the least protective models in Europe, which would undoubtedly frighten the most pro-business voters of Marine Le Pen… not to mention the popular classes.
On societal issues, Viktor Orban wants to be very conservative.
He thus enshrined the prohibition of marriage and adoption by same-sex couples in the Constitution.
We are quite far from a Marine Le Pen, or even an Eric Zemmour, who do not want
a priori
not go back on the Taubira law. The two have theorized for some time that these topics do not bring their electorate together, but divide it. Their bases are found on immigration, but are divided on the societal in a very antagonistic and irreconcilable way. It is therefore above all for Marine Le Pen to return politeness to her host by supporting him against other European governments. Hungary is under attack over its laws on homosexuality and its alleged “promotion” in the media and cultural works. However, it does not seem to me that these statements should be interpreted as a programmatic shift. This would not make strategic sense at this stage, including against Zemmour who holds the same position.
According to surveys, between 20% and 35% of French people would opt for a Frexit in the event of a referendum.
This theme can be quite mobilizing for a first round, but Marine Le Pen concluded that it could represent a glass ceiling for a second.
Benjamin Morel
This visit was an opportunity for Marine Le Pen to oppose the “will to enslave” the peoples by the European Union. Is this a way for her to get back to basics and thus re-mobilize an electorate seduced by Eric Zemmour?
According to surveys, between 20% and 35% of French people would opt for a Frexit in the event of a referendum. This theme can be quite mobilizing for a first round, but Marine Le Pen concluded that it could represent a glass ceiling for a second. In addition, the objective since 2017 was mainly to seduce LR voters rather worried about the economic adventure that an exit from the euro would imply for their savings. The fact remains that the CSP + having gone to Zemmour, this theme is essential to preserve the working classes. In fact, it conditions the establishment of an ambitious social policy for them.
For the moment, however, we are not witnessing a major strategic shift. The RN knows that the first turn is not acquired, but he wants to avoid burning his ships for the second. Marine Le Pen's program, however, like that of almost all of the LR candidates, is not possible under constant European law. This applies in particular to the establishment, even in certain areas, of a primacy of French law over European law. Therefore, three choices. Either you are leaving the Union; we have just said that this was no longer the option considered. Either you are talking nonsense and crossing your fingers that the voters do not realize it. Either you say that it is possible… because a treaty changes and that you propose to change them.
By talking about Europe with Viktor Orban, Marine Le Pen shows that she has at least one ally and that therefore her program is not inapplicable or does not have Frexit as a prerequisite.
Benjamin Morel
Just changing the treaties is not easy and a lot of campaign promises are sent to the graveyard of crazy ideas for this reason. It takes several years, and at least a few allies. By talking about Europe with Viktor Orban, Marine Le Pen shows that she has at least one… and that suddenly her program is not inapplicable or does not have Frexit as a prerequisite. We can always say that such a reformist ardor will very quickly come up against the inertia of Brussels and that it is therefore a matter of staging. Remember François Hollande and the European fiscal pact… If you want to renegotiate the treaties, you need the unanimity of the 27 (with possible referendums, even necessary in Ireland, the Netherlands…). However, it is true that thewe could use this same argument on the programs of Eric Zemmour, Michel Barner, Valérie Pécresse, Xavier Bertrand, Emmanuel Macron, Yannick Jadot, Arnaud Montebourg, Jean-Luc Mélenchon ... fortunately for our policies, the French do not hear much. thing to European law.