In Portugal, doomed budget threatens government survival

The socialist government of Antonio Costa, which has ruled Portugal since 2015 with the support of the radical left, is playing its survival Wednesday October 27 on the occasion of a vote in Parliament on its draft budget for 2022 that the opposition has promised to reject. The announced failure of the finance law would pave the way for the dissolution of Parliament and the convening of early legislative elections, warned the President of the Republic, the conservative Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, in the hope of forcing a compromise .

he insisted on Monday, judging that the state budget is an essential tool to relaunch thePortuguese economy thanks to European funds allocated in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic.

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"We will do everything to find an agreement, but we will not do it at any cost"

, reacted Tuesday the Prime Minister, who ruled out resigning on his own and promised to lead his camp in the event of an election anticipated.

At the end of the first day of budget debate in Parliament, the minority government seemed to have given up on convincing at least one of the two parties of the anti-liberal left, the Left Bloc or the Communist Party, to abstain in order to allow the adoption. of the draft budget during the vote at first reading scheduled for Wednesday at the end of the day.

Antonio Costa took power six years ago by sealing an unprecedented alliance with these two parties, which supported him during his first term without entering the government or forming a formal coalition like the one that leads neighboring Spain.

At the time, the Portuguese left gathered to turn the page on the austerity policy implemented by the right in exchange for the international rescue plan granted to Portugal in 2011. Discussions around the 2022 budget have taken place. elsewhere came up against the will of the radical left to repeal provisions of the labor code inherited from the time of the “troika” of creditors (EU-ECB-IMF).

Fragile left union

This fragile union of the left - known by the Portuguese under the name of “geringonça”, an expression designating a makeshift device - had started to crack after the elections of autumn 2019. Winner but remained at eight seats of the absolute majority Antonio Costa then avoided negotiating new agreements guaranteeing stability until the legislative elections scheduled for the end of 2023, preferring to negotiate the necessary parliamentary support on a case-by-case basis. A year ago, the 2021 budget was narrowly adopted thanks to the abstention of the Communist-Green coalition and a small animalist party.

The risk of a budgetary deadlock materialized this time when the Communist Party, following in the footsteps of the Left Bloc, announced on Monday its intention to vote against the government's draft budget, accusing it of not doing so. enough to increase the purchasing power of the Portuguese or to ensure the financing of public services.

The former allies have mutually blamed each other for the failure of the negotiations, pointing to the intransigence of the opposing camp in terms of calculating pensions or increasing the minimum wage.

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However, the scenario of anticipated legislative elections does not favor any of the forces present, except the extreme right which hopes to confirm its breakthrough in the presidential election last January, commented to AFP political scientist Paula Espirito Santo, of the University of Lisbon. In its desire to distance itself from socialist power, the radical left risks a

, while the Prime Minister and the President must now manage

, which is striving to overcome the health crisis thanks to the success of its vaccination campaign, she added. And, on the right, the two conservative parties have also been caught on the wrong foot, in the midst of internal disputes thatthey must resolve between the end of November and the beginning of December.