Taiwan warns: China would be ready for invasion in 2025 2:51
(CNN) -
If China were to seize one of Taiwan's outlying islands, the United States would have few good options to respond without risking major escalation and war between the superpowers, according to the findings of a recent war game or simulation. conducted by experts in foreign policy and defense.
The scenario, outlined in a report by the Center for a New American Security, began with China's use of military force to seize control of Dongsha, a tiny atoll located in the South China Sea between Taiwan and Hong Kong. , in which some 500 Taiwanese troops are stationed.
This kind of limited aggression could be a precursor to the takeover of other islands near Taiwan or a total invasion of the democratically ruled island, as Beijing aims to test and provoke Washington's determination to defend Taiwan.
But once China had established its own military footprint in Dongsha and withdrawn Taiwanese troops, the United States had no credible way to force China to return the island to Taipei control, the report says.
Economic sanctions took too long to take effect and seemed too weak to influence China's decision-making, while any military action carried the risk of an escalation of the war, which both the United States and Taiwan want to avoid as much as possible.
Instead, the report underscores the need for a multilateral approach, suggesting that the United States, Taiwan, Japan and others work to dissuade China from taking the island in the first place.
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China escalates tension with Taiwan with warplanes 2:38
"The United States and Taiwan must begin coordinating today to build a credible deterrent against limited Chinese aggression or coercion toward Taiwan," the authors wrote.
In all scenarios, cooperation with Japan was essential to establish effective deterrence.
Increased tensions between China and Taiwan
Beijing has increased military pressure on the island in recent weeks, and Taiwan's defense minister earlier this month made a dire prediction: In 2025, China will be able to stage a "full-scale" invasion of Taiwan.
The war game centered on an invasion of Dongsha in 2025.
Last week, President Joe Biden declared that the United States promised to come to the defense of Taiwan if it was attacked by China, comments that appeared to run counter to the declared policy of the United States of "strategic ambiguity."
When asked twice during a CNN forum whether the US would protect Taiwan in the event of an attack by China, Biden said it would.
"Yes, we are committed to doing so," he said.
Biden vows to protect Taiwan and China warns of "wrong signals" about the island's independence
A White House official attempted to clarify Biden's comments on Taiwan after the forum, saying that the President "was not announcing any change in our policy and there is no change in our policy" in his comments on China and Taiwan.
The United States provides Taiwan with defensive weapons, but has been intentionally ambiguous about whether it would intervene militarily in the event of a Chinese attack.
Within the framework of the "one China" policy, the United States recognizes China's claim to sovereignty over Taiwan.
But the issue is an important point for the administration, and China's plans on Taiwan are one of the "preeminent topics" for the CIA's new China Mission Center, a newly created body focused exclusively on gathering and monitoring. intelligence analysis on Beijing, CIA Deputy Director David Cohen told an intelligence conference this week.
China could use military force to control Taiwan 1:57
An invasion of China is not yet planned
Intelligence officials have yet to see anything to suggest that China is preparing a military invasion, according to people familiar with the assessments.
Cohen, speaking virtually at a conference in Sea Island, Georgia, said the agency's analysts are trying to "understand precisely how [Chinese President] Xi Jinping, who is fundamentally the decision maker on this matter, is thinking in Taiwan "both" in relation to the [20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party] "in 2022 and" in relation to the comparative strength of the Chinese military and the US military. "
The goal is to provide policymakers with "indicators" of a possible invasion - the factors that drive decision-making in China - so that US policymakers can determine the best course of action.
"There are a number one issue with China," Cohen said.
"Taiwan is definitely one of the number one issues with China that we are focused on."
Former intelligence officials who also spoke at The Cipher Brief conference suggested that an abrupt military takeover of Taiwan was unlikely, but that China would more likely follow the model used by Russia in its 2014 annexation of Crimea: a slow and covert take on the principle, followed by more open military movements to solidify the reality on the ground.
The United States government prohibits China Telecom from operating in the country
Xi also "has no doubt come to the conclusion that it is in his best interest, when he decides to go to Taiwan, to coordinate those activities with the Russians to complicate the problem of the United States in dealing with multiple crises," said Mark Kelton, former deputy director. of the CIA.
Taiwan is going to be a test
"Taiwan is going to be a test," said Norm Roule, the former national intelligence director on Iran.
"Our resolution on China on Taiwan should be challenged. People should say, 'If you didn't defend Afghanistan, will you do it now with other countries?"
China has shown a broad willingness to test that determination.
In recent weeks, it has sent a record number of military aircraft to Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ), including fighters and early warning aircraft.
The raids did not violate Taiwan's airspace, which extends 12 nautical miles off the coast.
However, they signaled a clear message about Beijing's intentions.
"With daily forays into the airborne identification zone surrounding Taiwan, Xi is clearly signaling and testing the West's resolve," former CIA Deputy Director of Counterintelligence Mark Kelton said at the conference.
Taiwan approaches the US and denounces China 1:01
On Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for Taiwan's "meaningful participation" in the United Nations, hailing the island as a "democratic success story."
Although Taiwan could participate as less than a full member state, any such move to recognize Taipei would anger Beijing, which has made it clear that it regards Taiwan as part of China.
"The fact that Taiwan has been a strong participant in certain UN specialized agencies for the vast majority of the past 50 years is proof of the value that the international community places on Taiwan's contributions. However, recently it has not been allowed to Taiwan to contribute to the efforts of the UN, "it said in a statement.
China's strong objections have kept Taiwan out of international organizations like the World Health Organization (WHO).
The United States has maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity with respect to Taiwan, refusing to recognize the island's independence, but also to recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan.
"The exclusion of Taiwan undermines the important work of the UN and its related agencies, all of which benefit greatly from its contributions," said Blinken.
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