China ahead of decisive summit in Glasgow: the big player in the fight against the climate crisis

China builds more photovoltaic systems than other countries.

But it still burns too much coal.

The country wants to become climate neutral by 2060.

Beijing has now announced a first timetable for this.

Beijing / Munich - Is Xi Jinping going to Glasgow or not?

A few days before the start of the UN climate conference COP26, this is becoming increasingly unlikely. There is still no official statement on this, and Xi has not been abroad since the beginning of the corona pandemic. At least the experienced climate negotiator Xie Zhenhua will be there in person. This enables informal discussions at least with him, which is immensely important at such conferences. Xie recently emphasized that China * was working on a success of the climate conference. Xie had also spoken to US climate officer John Kerry * twice in advance.

But even if President Xi does not fly to Glasgow, China's role at the climate summit from October 31st will be of great importance: The fight against climate change * can only be successful if the People's Republic, currently the largest emitter of greenhouse gases *, is ready to make further concessions to have. In Glasgow, all signatory states of the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 are to ambitiously sharpen their climate targets. The agreement calls for global warming to be limited to below 2.0 degrees, if possible to just 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times.

Time is of the essence for everyone *.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated in a report presented on Monday that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has reached new highs in 2020 despite the corona pandemic.

The UN Environment Program (UNEP) announced on Tuesday that the international community would have to increase its climate protection efforts sevenfold if it wanted to achieve the 1.5 degree target.

Previous goals, especially those of the industrialized countries as well as China and India, are far from sufficient.

The decisions are difficult for the emerging economies of China and India.

You are still in the middle of the development process that Europe and the USA have long since passed.

Nevertheless, just because of their size, they absolutely have to go along with them.

China: Is more than the 30/60 target for climate protection?

After much hesitation in recent years, China has adopted public goals. Beijing's well-known commitment is the so-called 30/60 target: the country's greenhouse gas emissions should peak by 2030 at the latest. Until then, the CO2 intensity of the economy should continue to decrease. From 2060, China wants to be climate-neutral. India, on the other hand, has not yet announced a climate neutral date.

The energy turnaround is already underway *, and there are already countless wind turbines on north China's windswept hills.

There are photovoltaic systems all over the country.

China's emissions trading started in July and is to be gradually expanded.

But according to the plans, China's emissions will also increase slightly until at least 2030.

Until then, the energy efficiency should first be increased.

China's pledge from the end of 2020 is: By 2030, CO2 emissions per unit of economic output should decrease by 65 percent compared to 2005.

This means that fewer greenhouse gases should be emitted in order to produce the same goods and provide services.

Renewable energies are expected to make up around 25 percent of energy generation by 2030.

Coal consumption is expected to decrease from 2026.

China: First timetable to reach 30/60

In the past few days, China has published the first, somewhat more specific, timetables. At the weekend, for example, there was a strategy paper that, among other things, sets out stages on the way to goals that have already been announced in 2030 and 2060. In 2025, non-fossil fuels should contribute “around 20 percent” to the energy mix. As already mentioned, the target of 25 percent renewables by 2030 is known. The new strategy paper specifically states that a total of 1,200 gigawatts of solar and wind power should be installed by 2030. What is new is that China has peaked in oil consumption

during the 15th five-year plan (2026-2030) - shortly after the already announced maximum in coal consumption in 2025. Beijing had not yet commented on the subject of oil and natural gas.

Also new is the target contained in the paper of covering more than 80 percent of the energy requirement with renewable sources and nuclear power by 2060.

At the recent UN conference on species protection in Kunming, Xi Jinping had surprisingly said that at the moment

100 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity will be created in China's deserts *.

Construction is going according to plan.

According to

more than India’s current solar and wind capacity - and four times the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze.

Xi's announcement also supports

unconfirmed reports, according

to

, that the project is part of a 400-gigawatt renewable energy project planned by China in the desert.

This mega-project could consist of a network of smaller plants.

In the past few days, the northwest Chinese provinces of Qinghai and Gansu announced new wind and solar plants with a total capacity of 24 gigawatts.

China: Action Plan by 2030

In a further action plan for the years up to 2030, China announced on Wednesday, in addition to known measures, to shut down or convert older heavy industrial plants with high emissions. New capacities in the steel, aluminum and cement sectors are to be strictly regulated in order to prevent “blind investments”. The construction sector and energy-intensive industries such as iron and steel, metals, building materials and chemicals should save more energy. According to the official Xinhua news agency, concrete plans are to follow soon.

Lauri Myllyvirta, China expert from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, criticizes the 2030 action plan. It does not contain any numerical targets.

"It seems that China is traveling to Glasgow with little clarity on three key issues: At what level will emissions peak, how long before 2030, and how quickly will they decrease after peak."

China: Between Sustainability and Energy Security

The problem remains with coal, the raw material with the highest CO2 emissions per unit of electricity generated. The share of coal in China's energy mix has only fallen very moderately since 1978: from two thirds to 58 percent. But after the corona pandemic, many regions quickly turned to cheap coal for economic recovery. Some approved the construction of coal-fired power plants, which Beijing would now like to stop again. But now everything is uncertain anyway due to the violent power crisis in China *. This crisis has also to do directly with China's climate targets: Most provinces did not achieve their energy-saving targets for this year. As a result, many of them are now rationing electricity. In addition to the horrific global raw material prices, this is the most important reason for the current crisis,which already threatens international supply chains *.

Due to the lack of electricity, energy backup has priority, at least for a short time.

The problem: the larger the share of coal in the energy mix in 2030, the more difficult the path to climate neutrality from then on will be.

China: Paths to Climate Neutrality

Advice is provided by the International Energy Agency IEA. Together with Chinese researchers, she has developed a roadmap for climate neutrality for the energy sector for the country, which uses the 30/60 target as a guide. According to the IEA timetable, China's demand for coal should have fallen by 80 percent, for oil by 60 percent and for natural gas by 45 percent by 2060. Increased efficiency, new materials and the so-called “capture and storage of carbon dioxide” (CCS) will bring some progress, said Timur Gül, head of the IEA department for energy technology policy and responsible author of the timetable recently at the presentation. Technologies such as CCS or negative emissions from bio-energy could then neutralize the last emissions from 2060.These will continue to arise, for example, from heavy industry or long-distance freight transport.

For half of the emission reductions required from 2030 onwards, China will have to rely on technologies that do not yet exist, Gül emphasized.

Investments in research and innovation are therefore imperative.

Ultimately, the same applies to the rest of the world, including Germany.

The challenge is enormous for everyone.

China: More ambitious targets unlikely due to electricity crisis

Meanwhile, the world is pushing Beijing to move even faster beyond 30/60.

The IEA thinks this is entirely feasible.

"China has the ability, the economic resources and the political ability to peak earlier - around the mid-2020s," said IEA Director General Fatih Birol.

A commitment from China in Glasgow beyond 30/60, however, has not become more likely due to the electricity crisis.

There will be a lot of debate in Glasgow.

Preparations for the content are mainly going on behind the scenes.

Xi recently phoned Chancellor Angela Merkel * and French President Emmanuel Macron on the subject.

The director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Ottmar Edenhofer recommended that the EU use its political capital and forge a new climate alliance * with China and the USA.

It's going to be exciting in Glasgow.

In any case, cooperation between the most important climate sinners would be vital for all of us.