The winter wave is coming - but this year probably without lockdowns and school closings.
A new forecast explains why the situation is still becoming precarious.
Munich - The winter wave of the corona virus, which was feared last year, will also come this year.
The nationwide incidence has already increased rapidly in the last few weeks, currently it is 118 infections per 100,000 inhabitants.
Thanks to the vaccine, the situation is fundamentally different this year.
Nevertheless, the intensive care units in German hospitals are getting fuller.
A current forecast by
n-tv
with the Covid simulator from Saarland University shows hardly any improvement for the coming months.
Quite the opposite: the incidence in Germany around Christmas should be 250 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
According to the simulation, the wave will then peak in March - at an incidence of almost 500. After that, however, improvement is in sight: the curve flattens out again as quickly as it rose.
Corona forecast brings gloomy numbers: Researchers still see hope
But according to the report, the simulation shows another point: The above calculations are based on a vaccination rate of 69 percent by mid-December.
If 72 percent of the population had already been vaccinated at the same time, the wave would peak at the end of January - and that would only be 220 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, not 500. These would also be three for the simulated numbers of intensive care patients and deaths Percent mean a significant improvement.
It has become clear to most people in the past year and a half that such simulations do not always occur in exactly the same way, but rather that they should sharpen the eye for possible scenarios.
One can expect that humans will again massively change these simulations as an unpredictable factor.
Corona forecast for the fourth wave: This can be achieved by the vaccination quota
In the research report “The Winter Dilemma” by various German scientists, it is assumed that the increase in intensive care patients will induce people to protect themselves.
Therefore, at least according to the researchers' assumption, they will limit their mobility themselves - even without new lockdowns or measures.
In addition, there is hope that with an increase in intensive care patients, previous skeptics will still be vaccinated.
Since particularly strong restrictions are counterproductive, according to the researchers, they recommend a middle course: Few major events and wear masks wherever it is justifiable.
The current dramatic situation in Great Britain shows how precarious the situation can become with the number of infections rising, especially in hospitals.
