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The situation in the super election year 2021: Welcome to the boss carousel

2021-11-03T15:01:33.979Z


Three parties are looking for four or five new bosses. What is this traffic light actually doing? And: 18.6 percent can also be enough for a direct mandate. That is the situation in the super election year.


Dear reader,

Today, almost everything is a matter for the boss: We are looking for new party leaders together with the CDU, SPD and the Greens.

We wonder how long the silence of the traffic lights will last.

And we look to Dresden, where a CDU candidate with a mini result and mini lead won his constituency.

It's all a matter for the boss

If you have been thinking about joining a party for a long time and getting involved in politics full-time in a prominent position - now would be a good time.

There are currently some vacancies:

CDU, SPD and Greens are looking for new bosses.

You can apply to the CDU from next Saturday, the deadline ends on November 17th.

The catch: You have to get a so-called party structure, i.e. a district, district or state association, enthusiastic about yourself, because only that you are allowed to nominate formally.

Enlarge image

Possible CDU chief position applicants Röttgen and Merz

Photo: Michael Kappeler / picture alliance

If this hurdle is over, you have to expect strong competition in the upcoming member survey.

The hottest aspirants for the party chairmanship are currently Friedrich Merz and Norbert Röttgen.

How, of all people, are these two men, who have already failed several times, to help the future opposition party CDU, who is lying on the ground, with the restart?

Good question.

I can't think of a really good answer.

In any case, I have great doubts that the party will be united after the basic vote.

No matter what his name is, the new boss will not be a savior as things stand.

The Christian Democracy, emaciated in terms of content after 16 years of government, must completely reinvent itself, make it clear to itself and the people in the country what it stands for and what it will be needed for in the future.

The way there will be a long one.

Do people trust Merz or Röttgen to at least take this path?

Or one of the others that are currently being traded?

This is what the pollsters from Civey collected for us.

The result - excitement!

- read below.

Are you closer to the SPD?

The Social Democrats also have one, maybe two, new leadership positions to fill.

Norbert Walter-Borjans doesn't like anymore, Saskia Esken is still thinking.

But lateral entrants or surprise candidates will have a hard time.

Because after the tough choice of chairman by the base two years ago, the comrades want to settle the succession this time as quickly and silently as possible.

After all, you will soon be part of the Chancellor's Party.

Enlarge image

Possible SPD dual leadership Schwesig, Klingbeil in 2019

Photo: Danny Gohlke / dpa

The board of directors wants to make a proposal as early as next Monday. The favorite is Lars Klingbeil, who, as the previous Secretary General, could be rewarded for his successful election campaign and can do well with Olaf Scholz. Should Esken switch to the cabinet, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania's Prime Minister and election winner Manuela Schwesig should lead the party together with Klingbeil. To involve the party left, Kevin Kühnert could take over the office of general secretary.

Truly no no-names, and that's exactly what Scholz wanted.

Even as a likely future Chancellor, he is not loved by his comrades, he knows that he has to give his party room to breathe, that he cannot turn the Chancellery into de facto party headquarters.

But how much consideration does Scholz really take for the sensitive comrades' soul in the end when the allure of staying power beckons?

This construction still has to pass the practical test.

Anyone who

belongs to the party leadership of

the

Greens

is not allowed to hold a government office at the same time.

So it is in the statutes.

People like to argue with the workload, in fact it is about power: Too much of it is suspect to the Greens.

Enlarge image

Possible Greens chief Lang

Photo: Michael Kappeler / dpa

Because Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck are drawn to the future Ampelkabinett, they have to vacate their chairmanship at the party congress in January after three years. And as with the SPD, the same applies here:

It must not look as if the successor is about accessories for green ministers.

That is the charm of the favored duo

Ricarda Lang

and

Omid Nouripour

, who could at least nominally form a self-confident counterweight to the green members of the government.

Lang, previously party vice and women's policy spokeswoman, belongs to the left wing and is already quite prominent despite her relatively young age of 27.

Foreign politician Nouripour, 46, is realo, an experienced member of parliament with a migration history and well connected in federal politics.

Opposing candidates are currently not in sight.

With the Greens!

This is your chance!

Pssst, traffic light negotiation, please do not disturb!

How is the traffic light doing?

The SPD, the Greens and the FDP are quietly negotiating coalitions and are mighty proud that hardly anything gets out.

All colleagues who are currently trying to find out something of substantial substance from the 22 working groups are put off by the participants: "Unfortunately, I can't tell you anything," they often say.

Or slightly modified: “I can't tell you much.” Where “not much” means “nothing”.

Enlarge image

Chancellor-designate Scholz, future Green partner (in the Bundestag)

Photo: Sean Gallup / Getty Images

I know we journalists sound pretty lewd these days.

But our job is not just to wait and see what the three would-be partners put in front of us at the end, but also to make the way there transparent.

What is the wrestling about?

Who will prevail at which point?

And why?

After all, it is about the course of this country for the next few years - and not the vain complacency of a future federal government: see how well we can get along!

On this Wednesday, the workgroups are supposed to take a break.

The chief negotiators supposedly want to use the day for a small cash drop: Are everyone on track?

Where else is it?

After all, all topics should be discussed as much as possible in one week, some groups even want to be through this Friday.

But do not tell anyone.

What the polls say

Back to looking for a chairman in the CDU.

Merz, Röttgen, Spahn, Brinkhaus, Linnemann - nobody has officially thrown their hat into the ring.

But nobody has yet said: I definitely won't do it.

So who should lead the Christian Democrats out of the crisis?

We asked people that together with the Institut Civey.

The former parliamentary group leader Merz and the former Federal Environment Minister Röttgen are clearly ahead of the others among supporters of the Union parties - with Merz clearly in first place.

Health Minister Jens Spahn, on the other hand, has a catastrophic result.

In a specific duel situation, however, Merz has hardly any advantages over Röttgen among the sympathizers of the CDU and CSU

: 47 to 43 percent - with 10 percent undecided and a not inconsiderable margin of error.

Most of the supporters of Linnemann, Spahn and Co. would take Röttgen's side if the worst came to the worst.

Mind you: This is not a survey among members of the CDU.

The party base may work very differently from the Union's potential voters.

This is exactly what Merz relies on.

The constituency of the week: # 160

Lars Rohwer

has been promoted from the regional league to the Bundesliga. The man is 49 years old, not a particularly old age for politicians, but it has been more than 30 years since Rohwer first moved into the Saxon state parliament. With an interruption in the mid-1990s, he has represented the CDU there ever since. Now he has made the leap to Berlin in the Bundestag.

In doing so, he set two records.

On the one hand, Rohwer got the

lowest first

vote

result

in the very heterogeneous constituency of Dresden II - Bautzen II that was

enough for a direct mandate in the history of the Bundestag elections: just 18.6 percent. At the same time, the Christian Democrat won closer

than any other constituency

winner

. Rohwer was only 35 votes ahead of AfD competitor Andreas Harlaß.

Remarkable: With the second votes, the CDU only came fourth in constituency 160 behind AfD, Greens and SPD.

Obviously, Rohwer owes his direct mandate to many voters who only gave him their vote to prevent a right wing victory.

Rohwer now wants to convince them that they have "made the right decision", as he recently said in an interview with colleagues from "Zeit online".

Because he knows: "I will probably not get the solidarity of the other parties again in four years."

Enlarge image

CDU politician Lars Rohwer

Photo: Sven Ellger / IMAGO

A "Rohwer" is now the new unit of measurement for tight election results, stated the CDU politician.

However, there is competition: Because a "Hitschler" and a "Helfrich" also stand for a mini lead.

In the southern Palatinate, the social democrat Thomas Hitschler was only 41 votes ahead of his CDU competitor Thomas Gebhart.

And in the constituency of Steinburg - Dithmarschen Süd there were 52 votes, the CDU man Mark Helfrich secured the victory over the SPD politician Karin Thissen.

The social media moment of the week

It's actually a television moment of the week.

But as it is nowadays, TV events only get really big thanks to Twitter and Co.

This is what happened to

Annette Dittert

, 58, ARD correspondent in Great Britain.

Dittert is currently reporting from the

UN climate conference in Glasgow

, on Sunday evening the "Tagesschau" switched live to her.

"It's about a lot, because ..." Dittert began - and paused.

She looked down for help, mumbled "Sorry" and "sorry," picked up the cell phone, pulled out her glasses, glanced briefly at the display and continued her announcer.

what happened there?

The next day, Dittert delivered the resolution in a short video via Twitter: The "mad noise" on her button in her ear had

thrown

her

off the hook

, so she wanted to take a quick look at the bullet points that she had saved on her smartphone .

"Since I unfortunately need my glasses for this as an old woman, it took a little longer."

Now Twitter is usually merciless, mishaps and blunders often lead to a shit storm.

Dittert was spared that.

On the contrary, the reactions have been and are for the most part positive: You have dealt with the small dropout with

confidence and

charm.

The stories of the week

I would particularly like to recommend these politically relevant stories from our capital city office to you:

  • The SPD staff for the traffic light: Saskia Esken in a dilemma

  • Interview with FDP treasurer Christ: "The Union will fail as a coalition partner for the foreseeable future"

  • The CDU after Laschet: The base should have a say

Heartfelt,

Your Philipp Wittrock

And once again the note on our own behalf: You can order this briefing as a newsletter in your e-mail inbox here.ata

Source: spiegel

All news articles on 2021-11-03

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