US sets another record for jobs available in July 0:59
New York (CNN Business) - America's
job market recovery hit a roadblock in the late summer and early fall.
In recent months, the count of jobs added to the economy has been disappointingly low.
But economists have high hopes that the streak of bad news will end the October employment report, due out this Friday morning. That could be good news for President Joe Biden after voters sent a strong message this week about their disappointment in the US economy.
Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv estimate that some 450,000 jobs were added to the economy last month, more than in September and August. Employment figures in those months were well below forecasts, worrying economists about the state of the recovery. But delta-variant infections, which were largely to blame for slow hiring, are disappearing, giving economists hope that the job market can quickly recover again.
"Relaxing the delta wave will reduce disruptions to schools and encourage companies to resume hiring," said Glassdoor Senior Economist Daniel Zhao.
"However, the latest wave has not fully reversed, so earnings are likely to remain subdued compared to the strong job growth of the summer."
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During that summer streak, the US economy added 2.7 million jobs between May and July.
On Wednesday, ADP's Employment Report, which counts private payrolls in the United States, showed a healthy 571,000 jobs added in October.
Last month, the ADP report beat the government job count, mainly because government jobs were lost.
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Optimism that October will finally get the country's job growth back on track comes with a number of expectations for Friday's report.
Economists at Japanese bank Nomura predict as many as 650,000 jobs were added last month, while Goldman Sachs expects 525,000.
That said, no matter how good Friday's report turns out, it won't solve America's worker shortage.
Worker shortage will persist
As the economy fully reopened during the summer and consumer demand soared, companies stepped up their hiring efforts.
That created a labor market in which workers can choose their jobs, making companies work harder to attract and retain staff.
In August, a record 4.3 million workers quit their jobs, for example, proof of the influence employees have on the pandemic economy.
The number of jobs opened that month stood at 10.4 million, below the all-time high of 11.1 million reached in July.
Americans pessimism about the economy grows as inflation persists
The reopening of schools, coupled with the expiration of improved unemployment benefits during the pandemic era in early September, may have pushed some Americans back into the workforce since the summer, "but not enough to meet high labor demand, "Zhao said.
"Employers are likely to continue increasing wages in the sectors affected by the shortage, albeit at a slower pace than during the summer," he added.
While these conditions look quite promising for workers, nearly two-thirds of Americans view the economy as poor, according to a survey by the Associated Press-NORC Public Affairs Research Center.
Only 35% of those surveyed said the economy was in good shape.
The culprit for the bad mood is high inflation, as well as supply chain bottlenecks that have crippled global logistics this year.
Meanwhile, the Back-to-Normal index created by CNN Business and Moody's Analytics is at 94% and American consumers are still spending big - good news for the economy as we enter the important holiday shopping season.
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