United States: "After the defeat of the Democrats in Virginia, Donald Trump will want to take advantage of the unpopularity of Joe Biden"

Olivier Piton is a public law attorney in the United States and author of

Kamala Harris.

The Pioneer of America

FIGAROVOX.

- The Democrats lost, Tuesday, November 2, 2021, the post of governor of Virginia, a state barometer.

A very bad omen, one year away from the renewal of Congress.

How to explain this poor electoral result?

Olivier PITON.

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The Democratic defeat in Virginia is doubly remarkable.

First, Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin defeated veteran Terry McAuliffe by 50.9% to 48.4%.

The score may seem narrow.

He is not.

If you compare to the presidential election of exactly a year ago, Democrats lose between 7 and 10 points which is huge in such a short time.

Then, the election was played in the suburbs, the famous “

”, in particular in the northern part of the state which constitutes in fact the southern suburbs of Washington DC.

The democratic ebb is more than 14 points.

The election of a Republican like Glenn Youngkin who kept Donald Trump at bay during his campaign without denying his links with him showed that a Republican candidate, if he was new to the landscape, could perfectly win .

Olivier Piton

This poor result is explained firstly by the fall in popularity of Joe Biden who has lost nearly 15 points since August and whose low popularity rating is barely above 40%. approval, takes the Democratic Party into a downward spiral. Virginia has often been a highly sensitive barometer of variations in popularity and has often sanctioned unpopular ruling parties. This had already been the case in 2009, only a year after the election of Obama when the former president had experienced one of his rare poll “air holes”. Only point which relativizes a little the defeat of the Democrats, recently all the governors of Virginia who were elected never belonged to the party in power.

In the background of this rout,: the incessant quarrel between the left wing and moderates paralyzes the adoption, in Congress, of massive investments.

Is Joe Biden dependent on his left wing?

Can he get rid of it?

Indeed, Joe Biden is threatened by the ideological and political division of the Democratic Party which ultimately has nothing to envy to the state in which the Republican Party finds itself, also very divided.

The radicals accuse Joe Biden of being too timid on the level of public spending envisaged for his plan on the modernization of infrastructures (“

”) and the other for his plan of social spending and on the climate.

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Its first plan in particular, was reduced to 1,750 billion dollars (1,500 billion euros).

But it is currently the right wing of the party that makes the country ungovernable and blocks reforms.

In spite of the planing of the budget of “

”, a moderate senator of West Virginia, Joe Manchin, still refuses to vote the plan and his missing vote is enough to prevent the passage of the text in a Senate where the Democrats do not have. majority only thanks to the vote of the de facto president who is none other than Vice-president Kamala Harris.

Joe Biden is under double pressure and he has not found the solution to pass his reforms.

This helplessness feeds discontent.

Can we, also, conclude that waving the scarecrow Donald Trump is no longer enough?

No, because Donald Trump is no longer quite the center of attention.

Democrats are scuttling themselves and the election of a Republican like Glenn Youngkin in Virginia who kept Donald Trump at bay during his campaign without denying his ties to him has shown that a Republican candidate, if only he was new to the landscape, could win perfectly.

It is now complicated to associate the Republican Party with Donald Trump.

The aura that the former president possesses with the Republican electoral base remains strong.

Next year will see whether or not he could take advantage of Joe Biden's unpopularity to take his revenge in 2024.

Olivier Piton

Could this Joe Biden setback benefit Donald Trump?

Is it premature to make the former Republican president the favorite in the next presidential election?

That is the whole question and it is still too early to answer it.

The midterm elections will determine two things: Will the Republican candidates want to use Trump during their campaign?

Nothing is less certain and the example of Virginia proves it.

We can win without Trump.

And will there be a Trump effect for the candidates who have accepted his support?

It is too early to know but it is certain that Donald Trump will want to make his political comeback in these elections next year.

If he retained a base of loyal voters, Donald Trump however came out weakened from the last election, in particular because of his excesses. Couldn't he be overtaken by a conservative personality? What names could come out of the Republican Party hat?

We talk a lot about the young governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis who leads a fierce opposition to Joe Biden, in particular in the field of the health crisis, since I recall that the governors have the control of the health policy of their State.

DeSantis would see himself recovering the legacy of Donald Trump in the long term.

And he's only 43 years old.

However, the aura that the former president possesses with the Republican electoral base remains powerful.

Next year will show whether or not he could take advantage of Joe Biden's unpopularity to take his revenge in 2024 as he announces or whether Republican voters, in particular the moderates, would prefer a less divisive candidate.