On one of the days of August this year, it hit a point on the American radar screens that was moving at a tremendous speed. That is, China has developed hyper-sonic (hyper-sonic) missiles that could very soon hit any point in the United States and any U.S. Navy ship.
What makes hypersonic missiles so frightening is their unimaginable speed: between five and ten times the speed of sound, or in other words - between 6,000 and 12,000 km / h. No interception system exists - no iron dome, no arrow and no systems The American - is unable to intercept missiles moving at such a speed.
China's hypersonic missiles are on display, Photo: PLA
And if that's not enough - these are guided missiles.
This means that unlike a ballistic missile, which exits the atmosphere and moves in an almost predetermined trajectory toward a pre-launched point, a hyper-sonic missile has unlimited in-flight navigation capability, allowing it to hit moving targets - for example, US Navy aircraft carriers.
"Americans just fell asleep on guard," explains Eli Bar-On, an expert in performance research and advanced weapon systems.
"While the U.S. arms industry focused on developing aircraft, which were the ultimate weapon of the 20th century, the Russians and Chinese focused on developing missiles, which are the ultimate weapon of the 21st century.
In this area, they have opened a gap of 10 to 15 years from the capabilities of the United States, "whose arsenal has nothing close to an operational hyper-Sony missile."
An experiment conducted by the Americans last month on an initial prototype of a hyper-Sony missile failed, and it seems that there is still a long way to go.
Joint naval maneuvering of China and Russia near Japan
U.S. intelligence has been aware for several years that Russia has succeeded in developing operational hypersonic missiles, but the fact that the Cold War ended about 30 years ago and U.S. focus shifted to China, along with overconfidence in U.S. Air Force and Navy capabilities, has caused Washington to become complacent. Faced with the technological gap that the Russians have opened up in the field of missiles. But somehow, no one in the US's huge intelligence array noticed that the Chinese also entered the hyper-Sunni race, bypassing America in the round.
"The Chinese missile launched in August did miss the target by about 20 miles, but given the fact that it is an unlimited-range missile capable of hitting any point on Earth, it is a very small deviation," explains Bar-On.
"The Chinese have shocked the Americans - they have shown that they are very close to the point where they will have an operational hyper-Sunni missile, and the implications of that in terms of U.S. national security and the security of the entire world are enormous."
Aircraft carrier George Washington and her group of escort battleships, Photo: US Navy
Since it is currently impossible to intercept them and their range is unlimited, the hyper-sonic missiles, capable of carrying nuclear weapons, could destroy any major city in the US. But - assuming a nuclear war with China is not going to break out soon - this is not even the biggest concern .
From ocean controls to ducks in range
Since World War II, U.S. global power has been largely based on its fleet of aircraft carriers, which has no real competitor in the world. The American aircraft carriers from the Nimitz series and their successors from the Gerald Ford series are the largest war machines built Ever in human history.
Each such naval monster, equipped with nuclear propulsion that theoretically allows it to sail relentlessly for decades, carries on board a crew of about 4,500 (in the "Ford" series) to about 6,000 (in the "Nimitz" series) sailors, armament personnel and air crew fighters .
These turn it into a portable airport with about 75 to 90 fighter jets, electronic warfare planes and helicopters, which can appear at relatively short notice at any point across the globe where someone has dared to upset Uncle Sam.
Since the Battle of Midway in 1942, in which American aircraft carriers crushed those of Japan, they have been sailing around the world like sharks in the depths of the sea - terrorizing their surroundings without anyone being able to threaten them.
The hyper-sonic missiles break this equation, turning the unchallenged controls of the oceans into giant ducks in range.
China Army missiles, Photo: Getty Images
"These missiles can 'see' their targets, just like humans," Bar-On explains.
"Before launching them into the general area of the target, they upload pictures of it to their computer, and when they get close to it, they start looking for it. As soon as they find a match between the object in the field and the image set for them, they dive into the target "There is no way to evade such a situation."
Image-based guidance systems also exist in other advanced weapon systems, but their combination with an indefinite, non-interceptible missile turns the hyper-sonic weapon into a "game changer" - a new player in the arena that fundamentally changes the rules of the game and power relations.
This fact put the Americans in a "frenzy", and since learning about the Chinese experiment they have launched a race against time to close the gap in the development of their own hypersonic missiles, and no less importantly - in the development of defense systems against them.
Bar-On explains that ballistic missiles, which can be intercepted by existing means today, also enter the atmosphere at a tremendous rate, which does not fall short of that of hypersonic missiles. The critical difference, however, lies in the fact that the hyper-Sony missile is actually a "pilotless aircraft" that cruises at low altitudes and enjoys a much greater maneuverability. A guided ballistic missile is launched into the general area of the target, and 'falls' in its direction at tremendous speed. In the short time it has until it hits the ground it can maneuver a maximum of a few hundred meters in each direction, using wings. With a mobile purpose like an aircraft carrier, which is in constant motion. "
The combination of the enormous speed and relatively low altitude flight and maneuverability, provides the hyper-sonic missile with protection against interception systems such as the arrow missile, which can "catch" the target only at high altitudes, and are therefore suitable for intercepting ballistic missiles only;
But this combination also creates one of the major engineering challenges in developing a hyper-sonic missile: the long flight at low altitude and tremendous speed creates immense friction with the air, which greatly heats the missile body.
It needs to be protected with the help of special materials and advanced cooling mechanisms, which require very complex technological development.
F-22 American Stealth, Photo: Getty Images
So how do you intercept a low-altitude missile that is still tearing up the atmosphere at thousands of miles per hour?
The answer, in one word, is laser.
A powerful laser beam, moving at the speed of light, localizes on the missile and heats its warhead within a few seconds until it explodes.
In fact, here in Israel, the defense industries have been working for several years on similar developments designed to intercept "regular" mortar shells, rockets and missiles.
The Americans hope to present first results around 2024, but this impressive schedule also has explosive potential.
Triple international crisis
In the past year, China has significantly stepped up its military maneuvers near Taiwan and the belligerent declarations against Taipei.
The Chinese, who say out loud that Taiwan is an integral part of China and that their goal is to bring about a renewed "union" between the two, are now waging a race against the clock parallel to that of the Americans.
If they obtain operational hypersonic missiles before the U.S. can protect its aircraft carriers from them, it could accelerate a military invasion of Taiwan in the short time window left until U.S. interception systems mature.
South of there, in Australia, are also beginning to feel the waves generated by the emerging Chinese giant.
Canberra understands that if Taiwan falls they could become the next target of Chinese expansion.
While this is a far-fetched scenario whose chances of realization are not high, for the Australians it is an existential threat that they have no way of coming to terms with.
Australian submarine, Photo: BBC screenshot
The constant Australian fear of China, combined with the experiment conducted by Beijing on the hyper-Sony missile, has recently provoked a triple international crisis. To this day the Australians have relied on the fact that the U.S. Navy, with its invincible aircraft carriers, would cut off all Chinese thoughts of invading the southern continent. Now, not sure they can trust that assumption. As a result, Australia, which had signed a deal to buy submarines from France at an imaginary value of 56 billion euros, canceled at the last minute the contract in favor of buying larger and more advanced submarines from the US.
This move provoked tremendous outrage in Paris, which in an unprecedented move brought its ambassadors from Washington and Canberra back for consultations. But despite the crisis and the justified anger of the French, the Australians stood their ground. The eight giant American submarines purchased at the site these French can carry 28 nuclear missiles each. Australia does not have its own nuclear weapons, but the implicit assumption in the new strategy is that in the event of a Chinese threat of invasion, the US will supply it with the missiles and so will Beijing, who will know that it will be hit by a particularly painful counterattack.
It is too early to eulogize American military supremacy as well as the dominance of aircraft carriers, which in a few years' time will likely enjoy at least a partial ability to deal with the new threat.
But it is quite possible that the entry into the arena of hypersonic missiles heralds the end of an era: aircraft carriers, which have made the huge battleships an extinct species, may well be the next victim in the natural selection process of modern warfare development.
And even above the future of the aircraft themselves - including the most advanced stealth and unmanned aerial vehicles - a question mark is already beginning to hover: because whoever can attack any target in the world with a missile, what need does he have in the Air Force?