Ethiopia: 5 minutes to understand the escalation of the Tigray conflict

Nothing seems to be able to stop the advance of the Tigrayan rebels towards the capital Addis Ababa.

Pope Francis called on Sunday to step up diplomatic efforts to end the escalating conflict in Ethiopia between the government forces of Prime Minister and Nobel Peace Prize winner Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) .

The day before, the US government had ordered the departure of its non-essential diplomatic staff.

What is the situation on the ground?

The TPLF claimed responsibility for the capture of the two strategic towns of Dessie and Komblocha 400 km north of the capital and claims to also advance from the east towards Mile, a town on the road to Djibouti.

"With the capture of these cities, the main logistics axes that usually supply Addis Ababa are cut," said Patrick Ferras, specialist in Ethiopia and author of "Learn and understand Africa today".

Abiy Ahmed's government declared a state of emergency on November 2, and Addis Ababa authorities called on residents to organize to defend the city.

This Sunday, tens of thousands of civilians in the capital gathered in the famous Meskel Square and swore the loss of the Tigrayan rebels.

Several countries have also called on their nationals to leave Ethiopia.

"Diplomatic gestures are fairly standard as soon as there is a risk and here we can say that Addis Ababa is within gun range," said the researcher.

What do the Tigrayan rebels want?

Taking the capital is not "a goal," said Getachew Reda, spokesperson for the TPLF. "We are not particularly interested in Addis Ababa, we just want to make sure that Abiy Ahmed is no longer a threat to our people," he said, ruling out the possibility of a bloodbath if the capital , populated mainly by members of the majority Oromo ethnic group, fell.

“This conflict has political and not so much ethnic origins.

There is no fierce hatred between ethnic groups in Ethiopia, as there may have been in Rwanda and Burundi ”, decrypts Patrick Ferras.

The TPLF dominated Ethiopia's political and security structures for nearly 30 years, while the Tigrayan ethnic group is in the minority in the country.

But he was ousted from power in 2018 by Abiy Ahmed, of Oromo origin, and had to retreat to his stronghold of Tigray in the north of the country.

What ignited the powder?

In November 2020, Abiy Amhed sent the army to Tigray, accusing the Tigrayans of wanting to secede.

The fighting, which left thousands dead and hundreds of thousands displaced, plunged the north of the country into a deep humanitarian crisis.

The Prime Minister declared victory on November 28, 2020 but by June, pro-TPLF fighters had recaptured most of Tigray and then advanced in the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara.

Read also Death of civilians and mass exodus: 5 minutes to understand the conflict in Tigray

“Abiy Ahmed's victory was superficial.

The Tigrayans went into hiding in the mountains, trained and counterattacked in June, during the rainy season.

They are motivated, trained and well commanded and in four months, they have advanced 300 km ”, summarizes Patrick Ferras.

The question now is whether talks can begin despite the hatred between the two camps.