The issue of the Iranian nuclear program and the return of the Iranians to the negotiating table is currently at the center of Israel and the P + 1 countries.
Recall that in 2015 the powers and Germany signed an agreement led by the Obama administration and entered into force in January 2016, essentially slowing down the Iranian enrichment rate through several measures that limited Iran in terms of enrichment, uranium enrichment and the development and use of advanced centrifuges.
At the same time, Iran has been given some relief from certain sanctions that have been in place since 1979, and some restrictions still remain.
In 2018, the Trump-led U.S. withdrew from the agreement, and severe sanctions were imposed on Iran. As a result, the Iranians began violating the agreement and made significant progress in uranium enrichment and levels, and missile development continued. After the assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani, it is clear that the activities of the Revolutionary Guards were also damaged.
The change of government in the US has changed the agenda, and the government of Biden - who was vice president at the signing of the first agreement - wants to return to the negotiating table with the Iranians and try to reach a new agreement. Decided to return to the negotiating table.
Iranian centrifuges at uranium enrichment facility, Photo: E.
P.I.
There is no doubt that Iran has progressed in the enrichment process and can probably in a relatively short time reach a sufficient amount of fissile material to produce a nuclear device, yet it is still not close to holding a nuclear bomb on all its components.
Without going into details, this seems to be part of the roots of the debate between various factors in the security system.
Last chance for a diplomatic move
The countries of Europe, Russia and China, which did not withdraw from the agreement, kept in touch with Iran and worked to bring it back to the negotiating table. They are asking for more concessions. On the other hand, the idea of the powers is to reach a full agreement and then sign. It is clear that the Iranians, who are good negotiators and givers, are interested in the Salami method to achieve much more.
I recently participated in an Elnet delegation led by Minister Elazar Stern in Paris, where we met with research institutes, government officials and other senior officials, and held a dialogue and exchange of views on the Iranian issue.
It seems that this time European countries, England, France and Germany, will be more active in formulating the agreement and will not leave the lead in American hands as it was in the Obama era.
It is likely that the Biden administration, which is preoccupied with quite a few internal issues, will also allow European countries a significant presence at the negotiating table, to the point of leading some of the issues.
Prime Minister Bennett, Photo: Haim Tzach GPO
Until recently, the State of Israel placed the center of focus and action on the Iranian issue on the United States. Recently, all those concerned have visited Washington from Israel, while the European arena has not received the required attention.
There is no doubt that the forthcoming diplomatic move, if ripe, will be the last chance to try and resolve the issue without using military force.
The State of Israel must establish a diplomatic "task force" that will meet with the leaderships of European countries, in order to influence the negotiations with Iran.
At the same time, the State of Israel must prepare a military offensive plan for the Iranian nuclear sites, and it must make it clear to Tehran that this option will be exercised if it is clear to Israel that Iran is just before the bombing.
It is clear that coordinated action with the United States and other countries is the best solution, but it is difficult to assume that such a coordinated operation can be achieved. Enough to allow Israel to act.
The chances of success of the diplomatic contacts will be better, if in the background there will be an Israeli military stick or a superpower that will be activated if Iran decides to break into a bomb.
Israel must make this clear in all its meetings on Iran with the P + 1 countries.
