Antoine Bristielle is director of the Observatory of Opinion of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, researcher in political science at Sciences Po Grenoble.
FIGAROVOX. - Arnaud Montebourg has proposed blocking private money transfers, notably through Western Union, to countries that refuse to repatriate their nationals targeted by an expulsion measure from French territory. Is immigration definitely the central theme of this campaign?
Antoine BRISTIELLE. -
It is clear that the questions of insecurity and immigration occupy a central place in the political debate at the present time. Yet the politico-media sphere acts largely as a distorting prism at this level. When we ask the French about the issues that concern them most at the moment, delinquency and immigration are in the top 4, being cited by 27% and 29% of French people respectively [1]. But they are behind other subjects such as the environment (30%) and, above all, purchasing power (41%), which at the present time is without any dispute, the theme that concerns our fellow citizens the most.
Words from the left in the mouth of someone on the far right carry more weight than words from the far right in the mouth of someone on the left.
This is the major problem for Arnaud Montebourg.
Antoine Bristielle
We must also stop looking at opinion polls in a global way and go into the details of the figures.
There are major differences in terms of generations and political positioning.
In a recent note [2], we showed that the issues of insecurity and immigration were considered a priority only by voters close to LR and RN and by those over 60 years of age.
For young people, on the contrary, it is the expectations in terms of social protection, the environment and purchasing power that must be met.
The presidential candidate has attracted the wrath of his camp ... Can this however serve him electorally?
The political space has become much more complex for several years and the simple axis "left-right" no longer manages to transcribe all the reality of the political space. It can be disturbing as labels on the right and left have structured political life for decades. In reality it is clearly necessary to differentiate the positions taken on economic questions and the positions taken on cultural questions. We can be “right” on both aspects (this is the case of Eric Zemmour), “left” on both dimensions (Jean-Luc Mélenchon for example) or right on economic issues and more to the left on cultural issues as is Emmanuel Macron. As for Arnaud Montebourg, he seeks to occupy the last space of this dial:a left-wing position on economic issues and a right-wing position on cultural issues. We can clearly see this with his recent outings on immigration issues.
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Electorally his strategy can be agreed. It is a space that has been largely neglected since the departure of Florian Philippot from the National Rally and which brings together a substantial number of voters - between 15 and 20% of the electorate according to our calculations. Nevertheless the major handicap for Arnaud Montebourg is that he remains identified with the left, even with the left of the left of the time of the "slingers" under François Hollande. However, for the electorate of the left, the economic problems experienced can in no way justify attacking an immigrant population, whether in a material or symbolic way. More than 70% of French people who position themselves on the left declare that "
reducing the number of immigrants would have no impact on the number of unemployed in France.
"[3].
To capture this electorate on the left on economic issues and on the right on cultural issues, it is much better to come from the right - like Marine Le Pen in 2017 - than from the left.
Or to put it another way, words from the left in the mouth of someone on the far right carry more weight than words from the far right in the mouth of someone on the left.
This is the major problem for Arnaud Montebourg.
Left-wing candidates must succeed in imposing their themes, under penalty of disappearing in the first round of the presidential election.
Antoine Bristielle
Did the Zemmour phenomenon participate in "right-wing" the presidential debate?
A political campaign is the interaction of three actors: citizens, political representatives and the media. As we said above, if immigration and insecurity worry some French people, it is far less than other issues. The importance of “right-wing” themes in public debate is therefore largely explained by the back-and-forth game between the media and politicians. The media focus on Eric Zemmour's breakthrough and on the themes he carries leads the rest of the political space to want to position themselves on these same questions while at the same time hardening their positions on these issues. Zemmour's breakthrough in the polls and in the media thus leads to a right-wing approach, both in terms of issues and positions. He dictates the tempo.
However, it is a major mistake for the other candidates and in particular the left-wing candidates not to try to stop this dynamic.
They must succeed in imposing their themes, under penalty of disappearing from the first round of the presidential election.
[1] IPSOS electoral survey for the Jean-Jaurès Foundation
[2] https://www.jean-jaures.org/publication/ce-qui-est-essentiel-et-ce-qui-ne-lest-pas/
[3] French Fractures 2021