China increases its exports.
It will be enough?
0:41
Hong Kong (CNN) -
A new Chinese aircraft carrier with technology almost equal to that of its American counterparts could reach the sea as early as February next year, according to an analysis of satellite imagery by a group of based experts. in Washington.
In images provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the aircraft carrier - known only as Type 003 - can be seen nearing completion on October 23, at Shanghai's Jiangnan Shipyard.
Installation of major external and internal components, including power plants and the aircraft launch system, appears to be completed or nearing completion, CSIS said.
Only a few additional items, such as weapons and radar systems, remain to be installed before the ship can glide down the Yangtze River, the analysts added.
"Based on the information available and the progress observed at Jiangnan, the authors estimate that the Type 003 will be launched in approximately three to six months," CSIS said in a comment posted on November 9.
Chinese factories are experiencing their worst moment in the pandemic 0:58
When ready, the ship will be China's third aircraft carrier and the second domestically produced.
advertising
But unlike its sister ships, the Liaoning and Shandong, experts say the Type 003 will feature more advanced aircraft launch technology, in the style of the catapult system used by American carriers.
The new launchers will allow China to launch a greater variety of aircraft from the Type 003 more quickly and with more ammunition.
China builds replicas of U.S. military ships in the desert
Matthew Funaiole, principal investigator for the CSIS China Project, said the Type 003 would be the "Chinese army's first foray into a modern aircraft carrier."
"This is quite a significant step forward," he said.
"They have really committed to building an aircraft carrier program, and they continue to push the limits of what they are capable of."
Arms race
China now has the largest naval force in the world, and aircraft carriers are the main ships in any great power's fleet.
The huge ships are essentially a mobile airbase, allowing for the rapid and long-term deployment of aircraft and weaponry in a combat setting.
But its value is not just in terms of combat ability, Funaiole said.
They also have great value in terms of diplomatic prestige and "power projection."
"China wants to have a world-class navy. It wants to signal to the world that it has a world-class navy, (and) try to convince the nations of the region or the world that it is on par with the United States," he said.
And the symbol of US naval might internationally is its fleet of aircraft carriers, Funaiole added.
China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, was an unfinished Soviet-era ship that Beijing bought from Ukraine in 1998, upgraded, and finally put into service in 2012.
The countries that pollute the most today 0:43
The Chinese military used the technological know-how it gained from that ship to build its first domestically built aircraft carrier, the Shandong, which entered service in December 2019.
But although China's first two aircraft carriers increased their naval might, their capacity was still far behind that of the United States, which has a total of 11 such ships in service.
Furthermore, both the Liaoning and Shandong were based on outdated Soviet technology.
Those two carriers used the ski jump launch system, in which the planes simply took off from a slight ramp, while the American carriers use a more advanced catapult system to launch their planes.
Catapult-launched aircraft can take off faster and with more fuel and ammunition, giving them an advantage over ski-jump aircraft, which rely on their own force to take off.
The Type 003 appears to have the same catapult technology as the US, Funaiole said, and may even have advanced to using electromagnetic launchers, omitting the steam-based launch systems that are still used on all American ships except in the newer ones.
With the new launch system, China can deploy a new combination of aircraft at sea, including early warning and air control ships, tankers and electronic jamming aircraft.
According to an October US Congressional research report, the Type 003 is expected to have a displacement of about 100,000 tons, comparable to that of a US carrier of the same class.
Pentagon warns China rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal
However, despite the advanced launch system, Funaiole said there are still indications that the Chinese carrier is lagging behind its American counterparts, which have more catapults, a larger airway and more elevators to allow for faster deployment of the aircraft. the airplanes.
Furthermore, all American aircraft carriers are nuclear-powered, while the Type 003 is believed to operate on conventional steam propulsion, which, according to Funaiole, would limit its range.
"(Although) this may be a less important factor for China at the moment, as many of its interests are in the nearby seas," he said.
America's Naval Advantage
According to analysts, there is one important factor that will allow the US fleet to remain superior to the Chinese in the near future: practice.
The United States has been operating aircraft carriers in both combat and peacetime since before World War II, and has extensive experience in crewing ships and integrating them with the rest of its navy.
"We have been operating aircraft carriers for several generations and we have a large number of operators, engineers and technicians who have worked on them and who can pass that knowledge on to those who succeed them," said Funaiole.
By comparison, China has only operated aircraft carriers since 2012 and that experience gap is not "something that can be simply anticipated," Funaiole added.
First joint maritime patrol of Russia and China 0:50
Alessio Patalano, a professor of warfare and strategy at King's College London, said modern aircraft carriers have "incredibly complex capabilities" and that development of the technology is a long way from effective use.
"This complexity is the result of both the difficulty of developing and harmonizing technologies to operate air wings from a moving platform, and the challenge of building a 'group' of warships to support and protect it," he said.
China also has little experience in deploying the right mix of support vessels in what the US Navy calls an aircraft carrier strike group.
These include destroyers and frigates to provide defense against attacks from submarines and from the air, in addition to having ships to service and supply the combat ships that make up the strike group.
"Very few nations have aircraft carriers, and even fewer have aircraft carriers that can maintain a high operational rate, under any weather conditions, night and day," Patalano said.
Get the latest technology
Once the Type 003 is launched, it will need to be fully tested and equipped before it can officially enter service.
Initially, the US Department of Defense had estimated that the Type 003 would be ready for active duty in 2023, but has now pushed that date back to 2024.
The Shandong carrier also took two years from its launch in 2017 to its entry into service in 2019. Also, if the Type 003 carrier uses electromagnetic launch technology for its catapults, it could have difficulty operating them.
Even the United States has had difficulty using the same system on its latest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, leading to long deployment delays.
In addition, there is the question of the most modern aircraft for the new aircraft carrier.
"The challenge in judging an aircraft carrier program is to look beyond the construction of the ship," said Carl Schuster, former director of operations for the US Pacific Command Joint Intelligence Center.
China's J-31 aircraft carrier fighter prototype, a fifth-generation aircraft similar to the US Navy's F-35s, has just been revealed, according to Schuster.
With the J-31 still several years in development, Schuster estimates that it will take until 2026 for the Type 003 to be fully operational.
Funaiole said there is still no sign of the construction of a fourth Chinese aircraft carrier, although there were rumors that one was being developed or built.
"I haven't seen any visual proof of it," he said.
China says it launched a spacecraft and not a missile 0:50
In fact, overall, Funaiole said the Jiangnan shipyard was showing evidence of a turnaround from the rapid pace of military ship construction seen in recent years.
Satellite images appear to show renewed attention to orders for commercial vessels, including freighters and tankers, rather than producing new vessels for the People's Liberation Army.
But Funaiole said that more than slowing down China's naval development, commercial construction could be helping it.
"(This) massive boost to commercial production is valuable," he said.
"That generates key revenue, and some of that revenue probably helps fuel that military modernization."
CNN's Brad Lendon contributed to this article.
China
