The Ethiopian civil war made headlines last week as the provocative rebels, members of an ethnic group living in the north of the country, stunned the world and managed to defeat the Ethiopian national army in battle over several key towns, and begin determined military progress toward the capital Addis Ababa.
In Israel, they rushed to return the families of the diplomatic staff, and officials in the system expressed concern about the fate of the remaining Ethiopian Jews in the country.
In Addis Ababa, supporters of the government of Abi Ahmad, the prime minister of the Ethiopian Peace Prize, held a huge rally against the rebels, apparently the largest demonstration in the country's history.
Government supporters protest in Addis Ababa, Photo: Reuters
But what is behind the conflict, which threatens to put an end to two decades of prosperity in Ethiopia, a prosperity that has made it one of the most developed and rich countries on the continent? The main background to the civil war is ethnic. Ethiopia is made up of many ethnic groups, but the three most significant of which are the Urmo, whose members number 25 million people and live mainly in the center and south of the country; Amhara, which numbers 19.9 million people; And the Tigray, a group of negligible size relative to the other two, numbering about 5 million people and concentrated mainly in the Tigray district in the north of the country.
But Ethiopia's complex history has placed the Tigras at the center of the political stage in recent decades.
In 1991, members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray, the same organization that now threatens the Ethiopian capital, overthrew the Marxist and dictatorial regime of ruler Mengistu Haile Mariam, leading a coalition of resistance groups from all over Ethiopia.
Despite being a relatively small group, the number of militant fighters in the coalition that liberated Ethiopia from Mengistu's rule was ten times greater than that of all other groups.
Amharic militiamen in Ethiopia // Photo: AFP,
Due to the military power of the Popular Front for the liberation of Tigray, after the liberation of Addis Ababa it was the members of the organization who gained key positions in the newly established regime.
The new federal structure of the state allowed for extensive autonomy for the Tigray district, including the preservation of the military power of the Popular Front for the liberation of Tigray - as part of "special units" placed at the service of the county government.
With the outbreak of hostilities, experts estimate that this force numbers close to a quarter of a million soldiers and possesses heavy weapons that include anti-aircraft missiles and tanks.
From a crisis to a civil war
The new regime that came to power took over hungry Hungary, plagued by civil war and ethnic divisions.
The communist rule of Mengistu and his allies left behind a backward economy.
Despite enormous challenges, Ethiopian leaders in the years following the Civil War managed to march the country's economy forward and control, with varying degrees of success, ethnic tensions within the country.
In 2018, Avi Ahmad came to power in the country.
Ahmad sought to strengthen the pan-Ethiopian identity at the expense of ethnic division in the country.
He founded a new umbrella party called the Prosperity Party.
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray saw the establishment of the new party as an attempt to reduce their power in the governing apparatus, and refused to join the new party, arguing that it was an unconstitutional move.
An aerial bombardment on a main road in Ethiopia,
The transition of the Popular Front to Tigray Liberation for the opposition has exacerbated relations between Ahmad's majority rule and the province's leadership, a tension that has intensified over the past two years.
In early 2020, after an attack by members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray on the Ethiopian army headquarters in the province, Ahmed, who won the Nobel Prize for the peace agreement he signed with Eritrea, decided it was time for military action against the organization.
Large columns of armored vehicles and vehicles of the Ethiopian army entered the province of Tigray, and fierce fighting broke out in various hotspots.
Ethiopian Air Force fighter jets bombed the capital of Tigray province, Makla.
Along with the Ethiopian National Army, both the Amharic militias and Eritrean soldiers, known for their cruelty, took part in the huge operation.
Troops managed to occupy the main cities in the province within a few months and the rebels disappeared into the mountains, along with the leadership of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray.
Military upheaval
Although it seems that Ahmed's move was a success, in the summer of June there was a military upheaval.
The provocative rebels launched an attack that succeeded in undermining and breaking the forces of the Ethiopian national army and its auxiliary forces.
The Tigers were joined by other rebel organizations in Ethiopia as the Oromo Liberation Front challenges the Ethiopian army in the east and south of the country.
From the few reports coming from the field, the Ethiopian government has closed the country to foreign media and heavily monitored internet networks, it appears that the Ethiopian national army is on the verge of collapse.
Pictures of huge columns of captive and submissive Ethiopian soldiers have surfaced on social media and encouraged the collapse of morale among government supporters.
Damage caused to a building during the Ethiopian civil war, Photo: AP
Alongside the vague reports of military discrimination by the government, there are reports of massacres of civilians.
Ethiopian government spokesmen say the rebels are executing prisoners and young Amharas who are of conscription age for fear of being militia members.
The rebels, for their part, claim that innocent civilians were killed in the government bombings.
According to few credible reports emerging from the country, the various rebel groups now united in a political coalition are on the verge of closing in on the capital and claim the fighting is nearing an end.
It is unclear in the meantime whether again, as in the 1990s, the Popular Liberation Front will be able to dictate the fate of the whole of Ethiopia, or whether the country is on the path to an all-out ethnic war that could last for years.