In the last three days of the nomination period for the general election of the Legislative Council, there is a good chance that there will be "competition in each district" in direct elections in the 10 districts. In many constituencies, there will be two establishments versus one non-establishment faction.
Liu Cheuk-yu, a member of the Tsuen Wan District who reported that they were independent and democratic, ran for the Southwest New Territories constituency yesterday (9th), against the current Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong Member Chen Hangpin and the "Little Flower" of the Federation of Trade Unions Chen Yingxin.
Some members of the DAB have pointed out that the DAB has always been the target of attacks in the elections, but whether the non-establishment factions can be mobilized this time is another matter. I believe that the election is also "each has its own way." The establishment should consolidate its supporters.
Some people in the establishment area believe that Liu Zhuoyu's participation in the election has a greater impact on Chen Hengbin. Because Liu focuses on middle-class people, the source of votes may overlap with the DAB, but has nothing to do with the Federation of Trade Unions.
Cai Ziqiang, a senior lecturer in the Department of Politics and Administration at CUHK, believes that the election situation for non-organizationalists is not optimistic. Larger.
Some people in some areas expect Chen Hengbin to be more affected, but his status is difficult to be shaken
Some members of the DAB said that the votes of the establishment and non-establishment parties are not the same. Everyone "has their own things" and each strives for the support of the public to consolidate their own fundamentals. They also say that the DAB has always been a democrat in the past. Subject, but as to whether the opponent can use this method to work this time, it is unknown.
Some people in the establishment area said that it’s not certain how many people would think that Liu Zhuoyu belongs to the democrats, and Liu Zhuoyu’s main line of the middle class, which is "inconsistent" with the votes of the Federation of Trade Unions, is closer to the source of Chen Heng's votes. Liu Zhuoyu's participation in the election has a greater impact on Chen Hengpin, but the DAB's regional network is huge, I believe Liu Zhuoyu can hardly shake Chen Hengpin's seat.
Cai Ziqiang: If the establishment team successfully allocates votes, the non-organization team must get 35% of the votes to be elected
The "2 vs. 1" battle was also seen in Hong Kong Island West, Kowloon Central and Northeast New Territories.
In the southeastern constituency of the New Territories, the democratic party Sai Kung District Council vice chairman Choi Ming-hei recently participated in the election. It is expected that Lin Suwei, the "professional motivation" who swayed the DAB Li Shirong and replaced Fang Guoshan in the battle.
Cai Ziqiang estimated that if the non-organizational faction is to win the local direct election, the required vote rate depends on the allocation of votes of the establishmental candidate. If the establishmental votes are evenly distributed, the non-organizational faction needs to obtain at least 35% of the votes to successfully win the beach; If the votes are not evenly distributed, the non-establishment faction can be elected with 25% to 30% of the votes.
However, he mentioned that the establishment was defeated in the district council elections in 2019 and lost most of the stakes in the districts. It is inevitable that the district work will be unfamiliar. I believe the establishment will have a higher difficulty in matching votes in this election.
He believes that the election situation of the non-establishment faction is not optimistic. There are no important pan-democrats in this election, and the candidates who are running for the election are less well-known. In addition, the democratic camp has low voting intentions, even in the dual-seat single-vote system. Next, it is expected that most of the seats in the constituency will be taken over by the establishment.
Pan Zhuohong intends to move to Hong Kong East
It is understood that Pan Zhuohong, the managing director of Zhongke Xingye, who originally planned to elect Kowloon West, is considering moving to Hong Kong Island East. He appeared in Quarry Bay yesterday afternoon to collect voter nominations.
If Pan succeeds in entering the gate, it will force Wu Qiubei of the Federation of Trade Unions, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong, Liang Xi and the New Democratic Party of Liao Tiancheng, and they will become the most competitive electoral district.
When Pan Zhuohong replied to the inquiry, he confirmed that he had this consideration, but he did not explain the reason, only that he believed that he had a chance of winning in the district.
Regarding the nomination of the election committee, he recently revealed that a fifth sector election committee is willing to nominate, which made him "despair and change hope." However, when he responded to the inquiry yesterday, he said that there was no supplement.
For the list of candidates for the Legislative Council election, please refer to the "Hong Kong 01" election website.
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