The second Corona winter in Germany is imminent.
The number of cases is dizzying.
Viola Priesemann and a group of researchers are now demanding speed with boosting or two weeks of solidarity.
Munich - what happens if we carry on as before?
What do we have to do by Christmas?
Scientist Viola Priesemann (39) has published a current corona strategy paper together with 21 other researchers.
Her goal is to "clear up misunderstandings" and "to get through the winter well".
Booster vaccinations are therefore a powerful means of slowing the fourth wave - and sustainably.
But speed is required here.
Otherwise only an "emergency protection switch" could help.
Viola Priesemann: "A situation like last winter - we don't want that"
"A situation like last winter - we don't want that," emphasized the physicist Priesemann in a virtual event at the Science Mediacenter on Thursday.
Always making improvements here and there in a desperate situation was frustrating.
The “lockdown light”, for example, would have had no effect at all.
The scientist from the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization has been developing model calculations for the spread of the coronavirus since the beginning of the pandemic and is primarily responsible for the strategy paper.
Corona: “Worst-Case-Scenario” at Christmas
“If we continue like this, the numbers will keep going up. Intensive care units are already extremely full. Vaccinations and boosters progress slowly, ”explains Priesemann. Problem with a slow vaccination pace: The protective effect of the vaccination against transmission and severe course diminishes especially in the vulnerable group. This strategy would likely overload the health system, the researchers concluded.
The scenario is called “Keep it up!” And describes the “worst-case scenario” in the 16-page paper with the title “Sustainable strategies against the Covid pandemic in Germany in winter 2021/2022”. So something has to happen if the corona situation in Germany is to improve.
However, according to the scientists' models, not every measure or restriction has a lasting effect.
The second scenario “The burden on the health system” assumes that measures such as AHA + LA and 2G / 3G are taken when the health system is overloaded.
There are other local restrictions, but these are then relaxed again.
The infection rate would stabilize, but the incidence would remain high for a while.
"The faster you boost, the sooner the wave can be broken"
“Boosting is a very effective measure to break the current wave” - this is the conclusion in the “Vaccination and Booster Offensive” scenario.
The vaccination rate in Germany would have to increase significantly for this.
"The faster you boost, the sooner the wave can be broken".
By Christmas, 50 percent should be boosted in Germany.
The signatories of the strategy paper reject a general vaccination requirement.
Reluctant people would rather scare them off and also not reach convinced opponents of vaccination.
Viola Priesemann is optimistic with her prognosis for Christmas: “I hope that we are not at the limits of the intensive care units and that we have regional restrictions.
Have stopped 50 percent of the booster vaccinations and the fourth wave. "
Lockdown alternative is called "emergency protection switch"
If this does not work, there is a suggestion in the strategy paper: the "emergency protection switch".
The term stands for a two-week shutdown - a lockdown that should be well announced and prepared.
Priesemann appeals to the solidarity for the people who work in intensive care units.
According to the researchers, the "emergency protection switch" has a braking effect.
“It will relieve the intensive care units and contact follow-up in the next few weeks.
That brings air in, ”says Priesemann.
In their opinion, it would be best to say now: "If we don't have this under control by then, we'll say that's enough and do it."
2G, 3G, booster vaccinations, tests - but what really helps against the explosive number of corona infections.
The Charité virologist Christian Drosten paints a less optimistic picture.
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