Snow, ice and frost? November forecast wobbles considerably - weather expert warns of "winter carrots"

Snow down to the plains !?

There is still no trace of winter in Germany.

The November forecast is shaky.

Weather expert brings a vegetable into play.

Munich - The November weather is currently quite "boring" in Germany.

At least that's how the German Weather Service (DWD) describes the calm, undisturbed autumn weather.

The highs "Silvi" and "Tilda" form a high-pressure bridge from the Azores to Eastern Europe and they largely keep fronts away from Germany.

And that’s how it stays on the whole - boring.

"The typical November

" said meteorologist Dominik Jung from

The November weather looks dreary and gray from today (Wednesday) to the end of the month, according to the weather expert: “Now and then the sun shines out between fog and haze.

That's it!

On Saturday there can be some rain or drizzle, otherwise it will mostly stay dry. ”Be careful!

It can be slippery in places on the roads.

"Fog and light frost are a great combination for creating icy frost," warns Jung. 

In the higher elevations of the Alps - above 1,500 meters - a little snow should fall on Saturday, according to the DWD.

But after the short interlude, "calm and boring autumn weather" returns.

November weather in Germany: prospects for the coming week

First onset of winter at the end of November 2021 - NOAA weather model

What about a heavy onset of winter in November?

At the end of November, according to the weather model of the US weather agency NOAA, Europe and Germany will be really wintry.

According to the calculations, ice and snow at low altitudes are possible in the third decade, explains Wetterfrosch Jung in his current video.

Gradients in some calculations of the ensemble forecast deviate from the so-called long-term climate mean from 1981 to 2010 at an altitude of 1,500 meters - and indeed significantly.

They go down a lot - with outliers down to minus 10 degrees to minus 13 degrees.

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Snow in november?

Deep Peter caused chaos in the Ore Mountains at the beginning of November.

© Bernd März / imago

Onset of winter at the end of November 2021: NOAA corrects model forecast

A general weather situation emerges according to the US model on November 20, 2021. Large parts of Europe and Germany are flooded by cold air masses. "That would bring us permafrost and temperatures down to minus ten degrees at night and in some places also a closed blanket of snow," says Jung. In southern Germany, individual “fat outliers” can be seen, since the temperatures would plummet. But it's just outliers, the weather expert dampens the joy of snow fans. There are also calculations over the course of the year that are above the long-term climate mean.

And: The US weather model is currently the only thing that counts in this future, emphasizes the meteorologist.

The European weather model is not yet available for this period.

“It's all a bit shaky,” says Jung.

However, NOAA has diligently corrected the temperatures in the current forecast trend downwards.

The motto for the forecast for the first onset of winter in November is to wait and see.

November forecast 2021 - weather expert suspects "winter carrot"

Dominik Jung remains cautious: “It's almost like every winter again.

In the medium term, the weather models repeatedly simulate winter weather and suddenly these calculations disappear again. ”Apparently there is already a term for this supposed onset of winter:“ That is what meteorologists like to call the winter carrot with a smile. ”There is snow on the weather maps and ice cream "curled" and at the end ...

Meteorologists are certain: a La Niña winter is imminent.

But does the weather phenomenon have consequences for winter in Germany?