After the corona slump, the upswing should now come.
For a possible traffic light coalition, the scope for distribution increases.
Berlin - Good news for the traffic light parties in a difficult phase of the coalition negotiations: SPD, Greens and FDP can probably plan more tax revenues than expected.
The tax estimates assume that around 179 billion euros more will flow into the coffers of the federal, state and local governments by 2025 than was predicted in May.
"The next federal government can build on a solid budget and financial policy," said Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (SPD) on Thursday in Berlin.
Tax estimate: Almost 12 billion euros more for the federal government
According to the experts, the federal government alone will earn 11.7 billion euros more in the coming year than was initially expected. A total of 305.4 billion can then be planned. In the following years, things should continue to be just as good: between 2021 and 2025, an average of an additional 14 billion euros will flow into the federal budget each year. In the case of the federal states, the plus is even higher.
The main reason for optimism is the expected economic upturn after the bottom of the pandemic.
The recovery - dampened by delivery bottlenecks and the coronavirus episode - is not progressing as the federal government initially expected.
According to the autumn forecast, however, the economy will pick up significantly in the coming year.
The “economic wise men”, advisors to the federal government, also expect private consumption and industrial production to normalize again.
Because of the pandemic, however, there has been more uncertainty in tax estimates since last year than before.
It is hardly foreseeable whether further waves of infection will slow down the economy and consumption again, how the virus will mutate and whether the vaccination rates will rise as desired.
Tax estimate: forecast should facilitate coalition negotiations
The optimistic forecast gives the SPD, Greens and FDP more leeway in the ongoing negotiations on a coalition agreement: It is possible that one or the other contested project can now be afforded. The fundamental financial problem of the traffic light, however, hardly solves additional income of the expected magnitude. An additional 50 billion euros are to be invested annually in climate protection, digitization and education - with a debt brake and without increasing taxes.
The negotiators are therefore struggling to find ways to mobilize more funds, for example through the KfW development bank, public companies or investment companies. These companies and companies are not part of the federal government's core budget, so they are allowed to take out loans. For example, a trunk road company could borrow money and rehabilitate the road network. Even the “economic wise men” recently had differing opinions as to whether or not it makes sense to circumvent the debt brake.
One thing is certain: In the past few years, the Corona crisis has torn a huge hole in national budgets.
In 2020 and 2021, the federal government approved new debts of more than 370 billion euros.
According to preliminary plans, almost 100 billion euros in loans could also be taken out in the coming year with the debt brake suspended.
The Federal Audit Office has just warned that the federal debt mountain threatens to rise to almost 1.5 trillion euros by the end of 2022.
“The federal government has exhausted its financial leeway,” it said.
(dpa)
