The nomination period for the general election of the Legislative Council is over, and the ten districts are directly elected, "there is competition among districts." In many districts, there are situations where two established systems are competing against one non-organized system.
In the end, under the new electoral system, are the two establishment candidates unbreakable, and can the non-establishment factions break through?
Some scholars have analyzed that whether the non-establishment faction can win the local direct election depends on the turnout rate. He believes that if the establishment faction is evenly distributed, the non-establishment faction needs to obtain at least 35% of the votes to successfully grab the beach; if the establishment faction is not evenly distributed, The non-establishment faction only needs to obtain between 25% and 30% of the votes to be elected.
There are rumors in the political circles that pan-democratic supporters may fall for the purpose of pulling the establishment system "star figures" and mobilize to vote for the non-organizational factions.
However, some pan-democrats believe that under the new election system, non-establishment candidates are only "accompanied by running". They also pointed out that the non-organizationalists who decided to stand for election are not "fellows" and do not think that there will be a large number of pan-democratic supporters. vote.
After the electoral reform, regional direct elections adopted the "dual-seat single-vote system", which is different from the previous "single-seat single-vote system". There are two seats in the ten regional direct elections, and this time each district has at least "three fights for two", that is, three. People competed for two seats, and the "four fights for two" situation appeared in the east of Hong Kong Island, the north of the New Territories and the northeast of the New Territories.
The most intensely competitive district is Kowloon East, where as many as five people participated in the war. They were Deng Jiabiao of the Federation of Trade Unions, Yan Wenyu of the DAB, Chen Jinxiong of democratic thinking, and Hu Jianhua and Li Jiaxin who did not declare political connections.
Pan Zhuohong's joining the battle group may have an impact on Liao Tiancheng
Among them, in the southwestern New Territories constituency, the DAB Chen Hengpin and the Federation of Trade Unions Chen Yingxin and the non-organizational Liu Zhuoyu played against each other. Liu Zhuoyu defeated the actual political round table Tian Beichen in the district council elections the previous year and was hailed as the "Tian Beichen Nemesis."
According to the middleman in the established areas, Liu Zhuoyu's main line of the middle class is completely different from the ticket source of the Federation of Trade Unions, but is closer to the source of Chen Heng's votes, which is expected to affect Chen Heng's.
However, some people in the region believe that the DAB's regional network is huge, and it is not easy for Liu Zhuoyu to defeat Chen Hengpin.
It is worth noting that on the east side of Hong Kong Island, in addition to the three establishments of the Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong, Liang Xi, the Federation of Trade Unions Wu Qiubei and the New Democratic Party Liao Tiancheng, the non-organizational managing director Pan Zhuohong also joined the battle group.
Some people in the region estimate that Pan Zhuohong is famous for the Shazhong line, and his image is more prominent than other non-organized candidates. It is expected that his source of votes is similar to that of Liao Tiancheng, and he also focuses on the middle class line, which may have an impact on Liao's election.
In other regions, on the west side of Hong Kong Island, the New Democratic Party Ye Liu Shuyi, the Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong Chen Xuefeng and the non-establishment faction Fang Longfei were elected.
For Kowloon West, the Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong, Zheng Yongshun, West Kowloon New Power Liang Wenguang, and former Chairman of the Chinese People's Association and former Legislative Councillor Feng Jianji were elected.
In the north of the New Territories, there were Liu Guoxun from the Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong, Shen Haojie, chairman of the Yuen Long District Council who reported independence, Zhang Xinyu, the new direction of Hong Kong, and former Secretary-General of the People's Forces Zeng Liwen participated in the war.
Zhang Zhigang, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and president of the One Country, Two Systems Research Center, wrote in a newspaper a few days ago that it is expected that the voter turnout rate in direct elections in this election will only be 20%.
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Zhang Zhigang expects that more than 20% of the voter turnout is not optimistic about non-establishment elections
According to the results of past elections, the democrats and the establishment have a ratio of 6-4 votes. However, under the new electoral system, the outside world expects that the turnout rate will not be as high as in the past.
Zhang Zhigang, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and president of the One Country, Two Systems Research Center, wrote in a newspaper a few days ago that it is expected that the voter turnout rate in direct elections in this election will only be more than 20%. The next fall "is an inevitable policy consequence."
He also pointed out that the high or low turnout rate under the new system will no longer affect the election results of the "patriotic and love Hong Kong camp," and will only become pure academic discussions or gossip after dinner.
Cai Ziqiang, a senior lecturer in the Department of Politics and Administration at CUHK, believes that the selection of non-organizational factions is not optimistic.
According to his analysis, if the non-organizational faction wins direct elections in the region, it depends on the allocation of votes of the established candidates. If the establishmental votes are evenly distributed, the non-organizational faction needs to obtain at least 35% of the votes to successfully grab the beach; if the establishment does not allocate votes In all cases, the non-establishment faction can be elected with 25% to 30% of the votes.
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The pandemic refers to the non-establishment faction as "accompanying the run"
There are rumors in the political circles that pan-democratic supporters may fall for the purpose of pulling the establishment system "star figures" and mobilize to vote for the non-organizational factions.
Some pan-democrats pointed out that the first election under the new electoral system expected that the central government wanted to create a competitive situation and believed that non-organizationalists would eventually be "accompanying the run."
The person also stated that the non-establishment factions who signed up for the election were not "fellows." He emphasized that the pan-democratic camp was not interested in this Legislative Council election. Pan-democratic supporters will only vote in a minority even if they do, or they will vote in favor of voters in the middle, thinking that the argument is unreasonable.
For the list of candidates from all sectors in the Legislative Council election,
please click here to refer to the "Hong Kong 01" election website.
Legislative Council elections︱The voter turnout rate is expected to be only 20%. Zhang Zhigang: Pan-democratic candidates advertised non-organizational or DQ Legislative Council elections︱ Tan Yaozong: Low turnout rate or because of rest assured that Ma Yue questioned the expectation to manage the full list of candidates for the Legislative Council election90 There are two camps of competing Jiudong and 5 people fighting in the education sector, multiplayer in the functional constituency, and friendly competition in the social welfare project.
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