Contrary to all expectations, the court in Istanbul on Friday extended the detention of Israeli tourists Natalie and the Oknin rebels by 20 days on charges of political and military espionage against Turkey.
It seems that the Turkish Attorney General's demand for an extension of detention signals that the innocent incident, which took place in the new tourist observation tower in Istanbul, is becoming a political crisis between Israel and Turkey.
In retrospect, the timing of the Oknin couple's arrest is not accidental.
Just about a month ago, the two countries experienced another crisis of confidence, when 15 Palestinians were arrested by the Turkish intelligence agency on charges of spying for the Israeli institution.
Despite the noisy floor-to-wall media coverage in Turkey, following the fact that there were no Israeli citizens among the 15 suspects, Jerusalem chose not to turn the issue into an open crisis between it and Ankara.
However, if and when the couple are not released at the next legal hearing, it seems that the arrest of the Oknin couple may lead Israel to the heart of a new "hostage" affair.
Natalie and the Oknin rebels, Photo: Courtesy of the family
Anyone who has consistently followed Turkish foreign policy knows full well that this type of "hostage" affair can be resolved in two ways: through soft power, ie: Germany's style, or in the harsh and cruel diplomacy of former US President Donald Trump.
In 2017, when Ankara arrested Turkish-German journalist Denise Yugel on charges of terrorist organization and incitement of the people, Turkey and Germany found themselves at the height of a "hostage" crisis.
So, a year after the German government was forced to intervene, it was claimed in the media that Turkey had agreed to release Yugel solely in exchange for the end of German sanctions against the Turkish military industry.
Despite the criticism, Germany managed to bring the affair to an end in February 2018 - after it seemed that Ankara were happy with the results.
Adv. Nir Jaslovitz, Advocate for the Detained Spouses in Turkey
Thus, Ankara also drew a "gun" against the United States - in the case of Reverend Andrew Bronson, who was imprisoned in a Turkish prison for espionage in October 2016. Unlike in Germany, the United States chose for a long time to indirectly monitor the arrest. Fruit, US changed strategy. In July 2018, then-President Trump and his deputy Mike Pence carried out a "blitz of tweets" that directly threatened the Turkish economy and caused the Turkish pound to depreciate against the dollar. At the same time, Trump began imposing sanctions on senior Turkish officials involved And finally, in October, Turkey was forced to fold and release Pastor Bronson. And here, apparently, Ankara's 'hostage policy' ended. But it turns out not to be. In a scenario similar to the one faced by Germany and the United States.
Former United States President Donald Trump Photo: AFP
It is no secret that over the years Erdogan has made political capital in his home from creating crises with non-Muslim countries, especially with Israel.
Thus he managed to divert the public's attention from burning issues in the country.
The President of Turkey is well aware today that public sympathy for him is at an unprecedented low.
For the first time Erdogan and his nationalist allies are not leading in polls against the alliance "just not Erdogan".
The main reason for this change in trend is mainly due to the devaluation of the value of the Turkish lira against the dollar, which reached an all-time low (dollar = 10 Turkish lira) on the day of the extension of the Oknin couple's detention.
Therefore, Israel must be very careful and creative in order not to serve Erdogan's interests for propaganda purposes.
Jerusalem is required to do everything in its power to bring about the release of the innocent couple - including the use of its ties in Washington and Berlin.
The author is an expert on Turkey at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University and the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Defense