Europe, again put to the test in the face of provocations from Minsk.
For the past week, thousands of migrants from Belarus wanting to reach the EU have been flocking in the cold to the Polish border.
Facing them, dozens of soldiers, border guards and riot police continue to block them.
Painful images, which have been around the world.
And behind which stands the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, accused by the EU of instrumentalizing these flows of migrants to put pressure on Brussels and its European sanctions.
The tone is now rising between the States.
A discussion began this Sunday between the head of Belarusian diplomacy and his European counterpart.
Finally, the Twenty-Seven gathered on Monday should retaliate, by imposing new restrictions on the last dictator in Europe.
Sanctions deemed "counterproductive", argued Minsk.
We take stock.
What a situation ?
The days go by and the tension does not weaken at the border.
Thousands of migrants are still stranded between Belarus and Poland, hoping to reach the Kuznica border crossing, at the gateway to the EU.
On Saturday, the body of a young Syrian was discovered, according to Polish police, bringing the death toll at the border to 11.
On the spot, voice messages broadcast by the authorities assure migrants that Poland refuses to transfer them to Germany.
“The Polish border will remain closed.
You have been deceived by Belarus.
The Belarusian services are using you ”, proclaim the authorities.
W związku z plotkami kolportowanymi wśród migrantów, na granicy puszczane są komunikaty informujące, że nie ma zgody Polski na przepuszczenie migrantów do Niemiec.
Przeciwdziałamy niebezpiecznej prowokacji.
1/2 pic.twitter.com/1qJnQW7RC6
- Stanisław Żaryn (@StZaryn) November 14, 2021
A blockage that does not discourage the Belarusian regime.
A few hundred kilometers away, new groups of migrants are preparing to reach the border from Minsk, reports Franco-Belarusian journalist Andrei Vaitovich.
"Everything is well organized: come with tourist visas, they spend a few days in hotels, then the shuttles pick them up to bring them to the border," said the reporter.
What sanctions?
Faced with a stagnant situation, the EU intends to move up a gear by striking again and from Monday the Belarusian regime. “Lukashenko was wrong. He believed that by retaliating in this way he was going to twist our arms and have the sanctions canceled. Quite the opposite is happening, ”the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrel, said on Sunday in the Sunday Journal.
Will be targeted by these sanctions, "about thirty officials of the administration of Lukashenko", but also "individuals" and "companies" who "cooperate with him", added the diplomat, without giving more details.
"Sanctions that we have already seen previously, but which have had very little effect on the regime," remarks Carole Grimaud Potter, professor of geopolitics for whom the way out of the crisis will not require sanctions.
"The outcome will first be diplomatic, in particular by bringing Russia, unwavering support of Belarus, into the equation", judges the university.
What role for Russia?
All eyes are now on Moscow, Belarus' main ally, which could lead Lukashenko to change lines. Because if Poland accuses the Kremlin of being behind the operation, no proof formally attests it, points out Carole Grimaud Potter. For her, Russia could on the contrary hold the keys to a way out of the crisis: “Moscow's influence is considerable. Belarus is in Putin's hands. If the Lukashenko regime is still in place, it is thanks to the support of the Kremlin, especially since the European sanctions of 2020 ”, underlines the specialist.
For its part, the Kremlin militarily supports its Belarusian neighbor, which does not prevent it from delaying the provocations of its leader.
Wanting to shake up Brussels, Lukashenko had threatened to cut off gas to Europe.
A blackmail immediately condemned by Moscow which assured that the deliveries of its gas transported to Europe by Minsk would not be suspended.
The common immigration policy, the Achilles heel of the EU?
Beyond the humanitarian crisis, the blockage at the Polish border has revealed the fragility of a common immigration policy, observers say.
Because if an asylum policy of the European Union exists and remains governed by various treaties, it inevitably comes up against the will to welcome more or less great of each Member State.
“Migration policy remains in the hands of states.
We saw this as early as 2015 at the height of migrant arrivals on the continent, when a number of eastern countries - Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic - refused to accept asylum seekers on their territory. », Recalls Alexandra Goujon, political scientist, specialist in Belarus.
A breach that had been pointed out by the European Court of Justice.
“Lukashenko knows it: the migration crisis is a powerful destabilizing lever for the EU.
We can very well imagine that he will find others ... "