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Without a quick solution to the arrest case in Istanbul - Israel will have to change policy regarding Turkey
In the past, the countries knew how to separate the political crisis from tourism and trade, but the escalation in the affair will be a signal that this era is over.
According to senior Israeli officials, the next 48 hours will be critical to understanding whether this is an incident or a political event.
Meanwhile, the murky relationship makes handling the affair doubly complicated
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Turkey
Erdogan
detention
Naftali Bennett
Lightning Ravid
Sunday, 14 November 2021, 18:00 Updated: 18:01
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In the video: Bennett on the arrest of the Oknin couple (Photo: Roni Knafo)
Even after the consultation that took place this morning (Sunday) with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett regarding the arrest of an Israeli couple in Turkey, the question marks that exist in Israel regarding the affair are still more numerous than the exclamation marks.
Two senior Israeli officials dealing with the issue have estimated that in the next 24 to 48 hours the picture is expected to become clearer.
It will then be clearer whether this is a consular incident that got out of hand and can be quietly resolved within a few days, or whether it is an event that has already degenerated into a diplomatic incident similar to the Naama Issachar arrest in Russia about two years ago.
In the last two days, contacts have taken place between Israel and Turkey on the issue, including at senior levels, but even after that it is not clear how the Turks are interested in moving forward in the affair.
Israeli officials are encouraged by the fact that so far the Turkish media has covered the affair in a relatively minor way.
No Turkish official has spoken publicly on the issue.
Just for comparison, when Turkish intelligence revealed a few weeks ago the arrest of 15 Mossad agents who allegedly operated in Turkey - a real media festival was held around the issue
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It is not clear how the Turks are interested in moving forward in the affair.
The Oknin couple arrested in Turkey (Photo: Egged)
During the cabinet meeting this morning, shortly after the photographers left the room, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett addressed the ministers and asked them to "keep a low profile in the media" regarding the arrest of Israelis in Turkey. A similar message was conveyed to families as well. In Israel, there are fears that the sharper the media discourse in Israel on the subject, the greater the chance that the relative silence in the Turkish media will be disturbed. Therefore, senior Israeli officials say, time plays a critical role. Every day that passes the chance of resolving the affair quietly only decreases.
The person who has been leading the handling of the affair in recent days is Foreign Minister Yair Lapid. He is also joined by President Yitzhak Herzog, who is the only senior Israeli official to speak with Turkish President Erdogan in recent years, and Mossad chief Dedi Barnea. Prime Minister Bennett is regularly updated on the issue, but has not entered into it personally at this stage.
One of the key questions is how involved Erdogan is.
The prevailing assessment in Israel in recent days is that this is a fairly routine detention that has deteriorated and escalated and not an order from the top of the Turkish president, who has decided to turn the two Israelis into bargaining chips.
On the other hand, the parties dealing with the issue do not rule out the possibility that in the coming days it will be revealed that this is indeed the case.
The only senior to speak to Erdogan in recent years.
Yitzhak Herzog (Photo: Mark Israel Salem and Avshalom Shashoni)
The ongoing crisis in Israeli-Turkish relations makes the handling of this affair doubly complicated.
Israel does not have an ambassador in Ankara and Turkey does not have an ambassador in Tel Aviv.
There is no ongoing political dialogue between the parties and at the political level there is an almost complete disconnect.
Trust between the parties, a critical commodity in cases of this kind, does not exist at all.
In such a situation it is very difficult to reach a quick solution in quiet contacts.
Since US President Joe Biden took office, and even more so since the formation of the new government in Israel, it has seemed that Erdogan is actually trying to warm up relations. Like other leaders in the Middle East, Erdogan knows that one of the ways to get to Washington is through Jerusalem, and if Erdogan now exacerbates the crisis with Israel, the result will be a worsening of tensions between him and the White House.
Erdogan needs to warm up relations with Washington.
Joe Biden (Photo: AP)
Israel did not give in to Erdogan's courtship.
Despite the 40-minute phone call he had with President Herzog after the latter took office, Jerusalem was in no hurry to run into the arms of the Turks.
Israel's suspicion of Erdogan is enormous.
The latter has shown in the past how even after he signs a reconciliation agreement with Israel, he has no problem returning in a short time to an opposing and hostile attitude towards it.
In the past, Israel and Turkey have been able to separate the political crisis from the rest of the relationship and continue uninterrupted to increase mutual trade and tourist traffic.
If the current affair escalates, it will be a clear signal that this era is over.
It will also be a warning siren regarding the ability of Israel to protect its citizens who are on Turkish soil.
The Foreign Ministry has refrained from warning Israeli citizens against visits to Turkey so as not to further escalate relations.
If no quick solution is found to the Israeli arrest case, there will be no escape from changing this policy
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