Dr. Gil Befman, the chief economist of Bank Leumi, and the economist Benyahu Bolotin of Leumi Capital Markets, expect that fuels of all kinds will continue to rise in price, at least in the near term. The reason: the highest gas prices in the world.
In their review, they write that "the high price of natural gas is expected to divert demand for oil in the near term, which will support high oil prices and may even lead to a further increase. This is especially true if supply does not increase accordingly by OPEC + or OPEC +" B".
However, in their understanding, "in the medium term, with the passing of natural gas shortages, oil prices are expected to fall, particularly against the background of the expected increase in OPEC Plus and US oil production."
"The possibility that the U.S. government will restrict oil exports and distillates also exists. However, such a move could hurt the incentives of U.S. oil producers, so that eventually U.S. oil production may shrink and supply in the market decrease."
"In addition, this move may provoke a backlash from other countries, which will lead to a trade war, with an emphasis on countries that are oil importers, and increase international tensions due to the high global demand for oil."
The two caution the prophecy of rage, estimating that "for now, it seems that the administration will not take such a step, especially in light of estimates that global energy shortages are temporary and that next year a certain surplus in the market and global reserves will be replenished. ".
To Befman and Bolotin, things are related to domestic American politics.
"Imposing a ban on energy exports could exacerbate U.S. political tensions, further weaken confidence in Biden, strengthen Republican power and may even lead some Democrats to oppose some of the administration's moves, which could jeopardize the transfer of Biden's investment program. Back Better '".
