“Prospect of falling incidences”: an expert explains our only chance for a pleasant Christmas

The corona numbers in Germany are at an all-time high.

One modeler thinks the trend is reversible this year - under certain conditions.

Munich - intensive care units heavily loaded, dispute over "2G", canceled Christmas markets: It looks like the coming holidays will also be in Corona crisis mode.

But how strong?

Experts are already weighing up.

"Generally I am very pessimistic, we have seen an increase in the incidence of 100 per week in the republic," said Dr.

Georg-Christian Zinn, director of the Hygiene Center Bioscientia, in an interview with

.

In the coming weeks, a lot could “hopefully” happen - but in his opinion there was a lack of “decisive” political measures.

Corona forecast for Christmas: trend in numbers is still reversible

For social gatherings, he recommends everyone to do a quick test beforehand in order to minimize corona transmission.

He also emphasizes a hot topic of debate, the booster vaccination: "In addition, it is very important to boost family members who come into the risk group." In other words, older people, people with previous illnesses or a weakened immune system.

According to a Berlin corona modeler, the booster vaccination on a broad front could even reverse the fatal trend.

"We see clearly infection-reducing effects in the simulations as soon as around 30 percent of the population has received the booster," said Kai Nagel from the TU Berlin to the

newspapers.

Corona modeler to boost: "One percent of the population per day"

The prerequisite, of course, are the vaccination capacities, according to Nagel.

“Ideally, like in summer, we would vaccinate at least one percent of the population per day with the booster.

If we manage this 30 percent well before Christmas, then there is a prospect of falling incidences at Christmas. ”So far, around five percent of people in Germany have received a booster vaccination.

DIVI director Christian Karagiannidis expresses himself similarly: A million booster vaccinations per day would be necessary to significantly reduce the spread of the pathogen, said Karagiannidis in the latest episode of the NDR podcast "The Coronavirus Update".

“We are a long way from that at the moment.” An effect of the booster can, however, be expected in four weeks at the earliest.

He assumes that the fourth wave will not expire until spring 2022.

Corona winter 2021: Christmas shopping, company party and New Year's Eve

Christmas, and the company celebrations that go with it for many, are before that.

Dr.

Zinn recommends companies postpone the events and rather celebrate with employees in the summer.

He also thinks it is conceivable that shops will reduce the number of shoppers per square meter during the Christmas season.

The meetings on New Year's Eve will also have an impact on the corona numbers.

In order to get this under control again, one thing is recommended: "Last year we managed perfectly to shut down the contacts a lot, including the family contacts." If this were necessary in view of the infections, "we could do it at relatively short notice" , so tin to

.