The Limited Times

Now you can see non-English news...

Gloomy winter scenario: Expert expects 30 million infections - and calls one age group "time bomb"

2021-11-17T04:28:01.493Z


The fourth corona wave is causing great concern in Germany. Whilst a few stricter rules apply, an expert's prognosis makes one sit up and take notice.


The fourth corona wave is causing great concern in Germany.

Whilst a few stricter rules apply, an expert's prognosis makes one sit up and take notice.

Munich - The number of coronavirus cases is skyrocketing, the pandemic situation in Germany is explosive.

The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) also reported terrifying values ​​on Tuesday.

Many are now looking towards winter and Christmas.

Most recently, SPD health expert Lauterbach issued a gloomy December forecast.

Another expert's predictions are no less worrying.

"Dynamism driven by the unvaccinated": Expert explains the risk of infection for non-vaccinated people

The hospitals in Germany are full of corona patients.

The majority of people in intensive care units are not vaccinated.

"The current momentum is largely driven by the unvaccinated," the immunologist Peter said core from

ntv.de

.

Because they have "a much higher probability" of being infected with the corona virus.

He told the news channel: “80 percent protection against infection through vaccination means that as a vaccinated person I only have 20 percent of the infection risk that someone who is unprotected has.

So there is a fivefold chance that it will be infected. ”It is true that so-called“ vaccination breakthroughs ”do occur again and again.

But these represent a smaller proportion of the total number of infections and often lead to an easier course of the disease.

Winter forecast makes you sit up and take notice: Unvaccinated people are "food for the virus"

Kern called the non-vaccinated in Germany “food for the virus”.

They would get infected "this winter".

This prognosis was recently formulated by Andreas Gassen, head of statutory health insurance physicians.

According to the two experts, everyone should become immune to the virus - whether through a corona vaccination or an infection.

How dangerous infection is, however, "everyone should have understood after 100,000 deaths," warned core from

ntv.de

.

The vaccination campaign in Germany has been standing still for weeks.

Vaccination quota in Germany (as of November 16)

According to the RKI vaccination dashboard, at least 56.2 million people in Germany are fully vaccinated.

That corresponds to 67.7 percent of the total population.

As a result, at least 58.3 million people (70.1 percent) received one or more doses of the vaccine.

Coronavirus in Germany: Expert draws gloomy winter scenario

But what does that mean for the corona situation in Germany?

Kern expects extreme numbers of infections for the winter, of which around a third will be vaccinated and around two thirds will be non-vaccinated.

All non-vaccinated people (around 20 million people) would become infected in winter.

And 13 percent of those over 60 have not yet been vaccinated.

They are the time bomb in this event.

Immunologist Peter Kern opposite ntv.de.

According to the expert, "around 20 percent" of people who received a vaccination would become infected during the same period.

That would then correspond to around eleven million people.

Projected, Germany expects "around 30 million infections" in winter.

In addition, Kern forecast the following figures:

  • With regard to the age distribution of the non-vaccinated around 3000 unvaccinated patients in the intensive care units.

  • In addition, there would be a similarly high number of intensive care patients from the group of vaccinated persons.

    Vaccination breakthroughs as well as waiting for a booster vaccination play a role here.

  • The immunologist made it clear that 3000 vaccinated patients had to be cared for.

    "The unvaccinated on top are the problem."

For comparison: According to the RKI, around five million people have been infected in Germany since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the DIVI intensive care register, there are currently 3,184 Covid patients in the intensive care units (as of November 16).

Corona: 2G completely ineffective?

- "If there would be a nationwide lockdown ..."

Explosive in relation to the immunologist's winter prognosis: This he made in view of the current corona measures in Germany, such as the common hygiene measures and 2G, as applies in Bavaria, for example *.

"If there were a nationwide lockdown, these values ​​would of course be lower," explained Kern.

Such a measure was already ruled out by some politicians before the Corona summit on Thursday.

For example, the Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia and the Chairman of the Prime Minister's Conference (MPK) Hendrik Wüst said that he “definitely does not want to return” to a lockdown or school closings.

In any case, the Corona plans of the traffic light * let you look to the summit with excitement in view of the Corona forecasts.

(mbr) Merkur.de and tz.de are offered by IPPEN.MEDIA

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2021-11-17

You may like

News/Politics 2024-03-14T14:37:18.423Z

Trends 24h

Latest

© Communities 2019 - Privacy

The information on this site is from external sources that are not under our control.
The inclusion of any links does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them.