News in the political circle|Regional direct elections to determine the distribution of stakes in New Taipei City

The Legislative Council election will be held next month. There will be competition in 10 districts and districts, and at least one "non-establishment" person will play in each district. Under the "dual-seat single-vote system", it is believed that the establishment will not be able to win two seats in each district. The result of the constituency is unpredictable and even a bit "paradoxical."

According to political sources, most of the geographical constituencies have been allocated stubs, and candidates have been allocated resources from different political parties and districts to assist in the election. For example, the New Territories North constituency with 4 candidates, the Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong, Liu Guoxun, and the chairman of the Yuen Long District Council. Both Shen Haojie and "Hong Kong's New Direction" Zhang Xinyu have received support from different people. The current elections are fairly well matched. There are two key points worth noting to break through.

There is a system that says don’t underestimate Zhang Xinyu’s election

There is still one month before the polling day. Some people in the district revealed that the stakes in each district have been "arranged."

Take the New Territories North as an example. The constituency covers the North District and the northwestern part of Yuen Long. The Hong Kong political group "Hong Kong New Direction" Zhang Xinyu participated in the election for the first time. Supported by Pakatan Rakyat and some independent organizations without party affiliation.

The current legislator of the Federation of Trade Unions, Lu Chung-hsiung, is based in Tin Shui Wai. He was a former member of the Tian Heng District. He has certain regional strength. With the support of the stakes of the Federation of Trade Unions in Tin Shui Wai, Zhang Xinyu's regional strength is expected to increase.

Some institutional media said that although Zhang Xinyu is not well-known, his victory cannot be underestimated. He was nominated by many heavyweights this time, including Professor Yuan Guoyong of the Department of Microbiology of the University of Hong Kong, and Li Xiaojia, the former CEO of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. MTR Chief Executive Officer Jin Zepei, Cheung Kong Group Executive Director Zhao Guoxiong, etc. are obviously not general.

▼Shen Haojie held a swearing ceremony earlier▼

Rural affairs push Shen Haojie to grab the beach

As for the chairman of the Yuen Long District Council, Shen Haojie, who is highly praised by the rural affiliation, although he is not an original inhabitant, he is closely related to the rural affairs. His father Shen Qingwang and the squire Liang Fuyuan are world friends. Xiangtou came to the scene to support.

Local people said that if the source of rural votes can be integrated, Shen Haojie will have more than 10,000 votes. However, Shen Haojie's source of votes is concentrated in the suburbs and there are fewer "urban votes". If you want to get into the bureau, you will still have to work harder. .

Liu Guoxun has a solid source of votes in the North District

Political circles generally estimate that among the four New Territories North candidates, Liu Guoxun, an incumbent member of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong, is "stable". Because the North District belongs to Liu Guoxun's "old nest", he served as the North District Councillor from 2007 to 2019. He was only prosperous. There are more than 4,000 votes in the constituency, and with the support of the DAB in other regions, the strength is beyond doubt.

It is understood that the DAB has mobilized rural forces to canvass for Liu Guoxun, and it is expected that he has the highest chance of being elected.

Can "non-organizational" Zeng Liwen control the overall situation?

Another candidate in New Territories North is Tseng Lai-wen, who has not declared political connections. She is the former secretary-general of the People's Forces. Although she is not well-known, it is difficult to predict the intentions of pan-democratic supporters.

Analysts from regional sources indicate that there are about 432,000 voters in the New Territories North constituency. If the turnout rate is 30%, there will be about 130,000 voters. If Tseng Lai-man gets 30,000 votes, he has a chance to break through.

Another key is the ability to "pass votes". People familiar with election operators say that if Zhang Xinyu is supported by some stubs, it still depends on the effect of "passing votes". For example, the Federation of Trade Unions mobilized supporters to vote for another person without party affiliation. It is inevitable that some votes will be lost, which will influence the election results at any time.

▼3 candidates from Northwest New Territories▼

Zhou Haoding is supported by the Rural Affairs School

Other constituencies also have similar arrangements for the allocation of stakes. For example, the DAB Zhou Hao Ding, who is running for the Northwest New Territories, has been reported to have received support from the rural power. In addition, the DAB has always been strong in Tuen Mun and Yuen Long, and the chance to win the election is high. .

As for the other candidate, Tian Beichen, the actual political roundtable, some establishments said that he has been operating in the New Territories West for a long time, coupled with his high reputation, and the market is also looking at the top line. On the contrary, the new thinking Huang Junlang lacks regional work and does not have a prominent image. He wants to win the two. It is difficult to be an incumbent member.

For the list of candidates from all sectors in the Legislative Council election,

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