Doctors and data researchers have analyzed how the corona pandemic could likely develop if countermeasures are not taken efficiently.
The predictions are alarming.
Berlin - The corona pandemic in Germany has gotten out of hand.
Politicians from all parties are fighting for restrictive measures to break the fourth wave.
But it is not foreseeable at the moment whether the current measures, such as the introduction of the 2G rule in Bavaria, Saxony, Hamburg and Baden-Württemberg will be sufficient.
A group of scientists who deal with contact numbers has particularly great doubts.
Data scientists from the Berlin company NET CHECK, Prof. André Karch from the Institute for Epidemiology and Social Medicine at the Westphalian Wilhelms University in Münster and Prof. Bernhard Renard from the Hasso Plattner Institute at the University of Potsdam have calculated the possible course of the pandemic.
They came to the conclusion that there could be up to 400,000 new infections with the coronavirus every day at the end of December if the current level of contact and the vaccination rate continue unchanged.
Researcher: Massive increase in contacts in the second half of October to blame for the current Corona situation
From 300,000 new infections, the experts assume a critical burden on the health system.
And Lothar Wieler, the head of the RKI, also last calculated what it means for the system if 50,000 people are infected with the corona virus every day.
Six percent of them would have to be treated in a clinic, at least eleven percent of them would have to be in the intensive care unit, Lothar Wieler explained at a press conference.
Extrapolated to 400,000 infected people, 2,800 people would have to be cared for in the intensive care unit.
Numbers that would bring the health system to collapse.
Some regions are already complaining about a tense situation in the intensive care units.
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A curve shows the course of daily new corona infections if the vaccination rate is not doubled and contacts are significantly reduced.
© NET CHECK
400,000 new infections per day represent the worst-case scenario for the scientists. It was calculated using the NET CHECK contact index, which is calculated daily and describes contact behavior in Germany.
The contact behavior of the population is analyzed using millions of anonymized GPS data from smartphone users.
With the early warning system, NET CHECK had already correctly predicted the second corona wave.
Net-Check experts correctly predicted the second corona wave
If the experts are right this time too, a terrible scenario threatens.
The report says: "The model results suggest that - if the current conditions continue unchanged - there may be a massive wave of infections in December that will infect most people who are not vaccinated." In the pandemic, the researchers noted an increase in contacts, which was particularly strong in the second half of October.
According to the study, the level of contact almost doubled.
An immunologist expects around 30 million corona infections in winter.
Three scenarios
were drawn:
Scenario A
: The current contact level and the current vaccination rate continue unchanged.
At the end of December, up to 400,000 new infections are to be expected daily, which could result in an “overcritical” burden on the health system.
Scenario B
: The vaccination speed is doubled, the contact process remains the same.
In this case, up to 300,000 new infections can be expected daily.
Scenario C
: The vaccination speed is doubled, the contact process is halved.
The daily new infections remain well below 100,000.
Scientists predict that there is no getting around contact restrictions
In their study, the experts come to the conclusion that “acceptable case numbers can only be achieved by doubling the current number of vaccinations per day and lowering the contact index by 50 percent.” This would mean avoiding contacts, “but above all, large accumulations” will.
Contacts with potentially infectious people would also have to be reduced, for example by means of a clearly defined test strategy.
In practice, the requirements would amount to contact restrictions and mandatory testing, even for unvaccinated people.
Another expert also gave a gloomy winter prognosis: The immunologist Peter Kern expects around 30 million corona infections in winter.
List of rubric lists: © dpa / Marijan Murat / Rolf Vennenbernd (collage)