Thanksgiving essentials are out of stock

Dr. Huerta: Thanksgiving is the acid test 0:58

New York (CNN Business) -

If you notice that your shelves are empty when you go shopping for Thanksgiving, you're not alone.

In the week ending Nov. 7, retailers had fewer stocks of essentials for Thanksgiving compared to the same period last year, according to IRI, a market research firm that tracks retail sales in USA.

During that first week of November, frozen whole turkey stocks were at an average stock rate of 64% at national retailers, IRI found.

At this time last year, that figure was around 86%.

Packaged pie availability was about 68% that week, compared to 78% in 2020. Liquid sauce, with a stock rate of 73%, is down about 12 percentage points compared to last year.

Cranberry sauce, with an availability of 79%, has dropped from 89% in the same period.

• No turkey?

  No problem!

  Try a plant-based menu for Thanksgiving this year

IRI uses e-commerce transaction and point-of-sale data to track weekly store fill rates.

Retailers generally like to have a stock rate of around 95% overall, said Krishnakumar Davey, president of IRI's strategic analysis practice.

This year, stores don't come close to that.

Several factors are contributing to Thanksgiving staples disappearing from store shelves, including supply chain breaks and an unexpected surge in demand.

But if you haven't done your shopping yet, don't panic: you won't have to cancel Thanksgiving.

But you may have to spend more than you would like and have to do some substitutions.

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Supply chain issues and early buyers

Manufacturers and grocers say supply chain disruptions and high demand, both during the year and before the holidays, have contributed to emptier shelves.

Ocean Spray, a farmers' cooperative that makes cranberry sauce and sells bagged cranberries, said "consumers may experience some availability issues at times in a variety of cranberry products" due to supply chain issues.

The cooperative said it does not expect "significant impacts" on the availability of its products.

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And SpartanNash, a food distributor that also owns grocery stores, has struggled to stock a number of Thanksgiving items, CEO Tony Sarsam said.

"There are probably ... half a dozen classic Christmas items that will be harder to find this year," he noted, including turkey, pie, frozen pies, runny sauce and cranberry sauce.

Sarsam has struggled with other ingredients, including cream cheese, which is popular with home bakers and appears in many Thanksgiving recipes, he noted, such as whipped cream and butterscotch chips.

Supply chain problems come to the Thanksgiving table

Stores have been running low on some Thanksgiving staples this year, according to data from retail research firm IRI.

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Flavored pieces for baking, in flavors such as caramel and peanut butter, have been in high demand and encountered supply chain disruptions this year, according to Allison Kleinfelter, a Hershey spokeswoman.

"There may be some places where they are sold out or sold out during the Christmas baking season," he said.

Kleinfelter noted that "the production of our chocolate chips (milk, dark and semisweet) is strong and follows consumer demand."

Cream cheese is another item that has been harder to find before the holidays.

Kraft Heinz has seen "unprecedented demand for Philadelphia cream cheese in the last year," said Jenna Thornton, a spokeswoman for the company.

"We expect that trend to continue through the holidays and we plan to ship approximately 30% more product to Philadelphia in November and December," he added.

One thing you should be able to find without a problem: filler.

IRI data shows that stock rates for fill mixes stood at 92% in the first week of November, up from 90% in the same period last year.

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'A Thanksgiving Day of Alternatives'

So what happens if, or when, you can't find the food you want or haven't started shopping yet?

Don't stress too much, you can probably find what you need.

But you may not get exactly what you want, and you may not count on finding deals.

While in previous years retailers or product manufacturers may have tried to incentivize sales with near-holiday promotions, given that supply is low and demand high, that is unlikely to happen this year, said IRI's Davey.

And you may need to go for a different brand than what you were looking for.

"If you're particular about some things, you may or may not find them on your shelf," Davey said.

"That is the key conclusion."

Davey said he doesn't expect the out-of-stock to get worse as we get closer to the holidays.

• A "potentially significant" storm could hit the US East Coast with rain and snow during Thanksgiving week.

Some limitations have already been alleviated, according to IRI data.

Stock rates for frozen fixed weight turkeys increased to 64% in the first week of November, a significant increase from 40% in the last week of October.

Butterball has noted that "whole turkey sales have been earlier and faster, potentially explaining the reported stock losses," said Christa Leupen, a company spokeswoman.

"We can say that there will be Butterball turkeys available in stores this season," he said.

Cargill, also a major turkey processor, "is confident that there will be an ample supply of turkeys for Thanksgiving this year throughout the United States," said Daniel Sullivan, a company spokesman, even when he had to make certain adjustments in production this year.

Stew Leonard Jr, CEO of the small supermarket chain Stew Leonard's, said he is having trouble stocking some brand name products.

But he has been able to make substitutions so that the shelves are not empty.

"I would say this is a Thanksgiving Day of alternatives," he said.

"I cannot guarantee our customers that they will have all the items they want," he added.

"But I can guarantee that they will have an alternative to what they want."

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