The differences between allergy, flu, cold and covid-19 2:54
(CNN) -
A flu pandemic like the one in 1918 could be even worse than COVID-19 has been, and the world is not ready to face it, the National Academy of Medicine said in a series of reports published Wednesday. .
Work must now begin to develop next-generation vaccines and improve capacity in low- and middle-income countries so they can make their own vaccines without relying on wealthy nations to make them available, the reports recommended.
And governments must figure out how to ensure that companies have the incentive to work on these vaccines without knowing if they will ever be used or needed.
Is it allergy, flu or covid-19?
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Covid-19 has been terrible, said the Academy, an independent body that advises the US federal government on medicine and health, in the first of the reports.
"However, from an epidemiological perspective, Covid-19 does not represent a 'worst case' pandemic scenario, such as the 1918-19 influenza pandemic, which resulted in at least 50 million deaths worldwide." says the report.
Flu vs.
covid-19
The flu kills between 290,000 and 650,000 people annually in a normal year, according to the WHO.
Covid-19 has killed 5.1 million people worldwide.
The next influenza pandemic could kill 33 million people, the Academy said.
Experts recommend getting a 1:11 flu shot
It is difficult to predict when a new flu pandemic will occur, but it is certain that one will occur.
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"Influenza pandemics have occurred repeatedly, and experts worry that the risk of an influenza pandemic may be even greater during the era of covid-19 due to changes in global and regional conditions affecting humans, animals and their contact patterns. While it is difficult to predict when it will happen, a major influenza pandemic is more a question of 'when it will happen' than 'if it will happen', "he added.
Develop vaccines
One important recommendation: a global "giant leap" to develop a universal flu vaccine that would protect people against current and future strains.
Current flu vaccines must be reformulated regularly, adjusted each year, and do not protect against new emerging strains that could cause pandemics.
What is the best time to get a flu shot this year, according to experts
And this must be done as a matter of global coordination.
"We have too many loopholes, and too much depends on underfunded and informal arrangements," reads one of the reports.
"In the face of the magnitude of the threat, we are woefully unprotected. We urgently need to strengthen our collective defenses against pandemic influenza and we must do so in a way that is sustainable."
More deaths from covid than from the 1918 flu pandemic 1:00
One report recommends having 4 billion to 8 billion doses of the flu vaccine ready to use just in case.
"Preparation has to be an ongoing commitment; it cannot be from year to year, or from crisis to crisis," Dr. Victor Dzau, president of the National Academy of Medicine, said in a statement.
"Covid-19 has enabled the emergence of new capabilities, technologies, collaboration, and policies that could also be implemented before and during the next influenza pandemic. Investing in science, strengthening health systems, and ensuring trust to protect women is critical. people from the health, social and economic consequences of seasonal and pandemic influenza. "
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Coordinated effort
One report specifically recommends that the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the Advanced Biomedical Research and Development Authority, the Department of Defense, and other agencies now invest in research for newer and better flu vaccines.
"This will allow the selection of the most suitable candidates for the purpose to lead to authorization and sufficient production and distribution to optimize influenza control in various settings and phases of pandemics and epidemics," the report reads.
Next flu season would be severe, according to experts 1:14
"The World Health Organization should advocate and coordinate with multilateral stakeholders (eg, the Coalition for Innovations in Epidemic Preparedness), governments, funding agencies, the vaccine industry, and organizations philanthropic efforts to build the global capacity for preclinical, clinical and immunological evaluations of influenza vaccine candidates, including new candidates using innovative structures, targets and delivery systems to potentially expand or enhance protection, "he added.
One of the reports notes that the covid-19 pandemic has shown that the use of masks and physical distancing contributed to the drastic reduction of influenza activity globally.
"The masks would be simple and cost-effective during the next influenza pandemic, and public health agencies should require their use, when justified by the severity and incidence of influenza," the Academy said in a statement.
Flu Influenza Pandemic
