We will never know, apparently, whether the Oknin affair was a one-off incident brewed at the initiative of a junior Turkish policeman, or whether a planned ambush by the Turkish intelligence organization in the first place.
Here or there, it's time to learn.
Following the Oknin affair, it can be stated unequivocally that a dangerous precedent has been set for the security of the State of Israel.
The affair shows that different countries may adopt a "sewing case" strategy against innocent Israeli citizens, and in this way they will be able to exploit the state's desire to protect all its citizens.
In fact, this noble position of the State of Israel is perceived by many countries as a weakness, which allows them to blackmail the state in order to achieve political, social or strategic achievements.
In retrospect, it can be determined that by extending the detention and imprisoning the couple in the Turkish prison, Ankara used exactly this method.
Turkey saw the Jewish and Israeli identity as one of the Oknin couple as a mechanism of pressure on the country.
In doing so, Ankara planned to close the circle that in its eyes remained open from a month ago.
As you may recall, Turkey accused the Mossad of operating 15 agents in its territory.
The members of the cell, which is made up of Palestinians and devotees who do not carry Israeli citizenship, allegedly followed Hamas members on Turkish soil - and reported their actions to Israel.
In contrast to the Oknin affair, the "Mossad affair" made headlines in Turkey from floor to floor.
When in Ankara they demanded clear answers from Jerusalem, Israel chose to alienate.
This form of behavior seems to have been perceived in Ankara as a political humiliation.
And it was at this point that apparently the Turks decided to use the arrest of the Oknin couple as a golden opportunity to achieve what they intended to demand in the "Mossad affair."
Now, after the end of the affair, various sources in Israel emphasize that Jerusalem has not provided any political concession to Turkey.
That may be true, days will tell.
But the silence of the print Turkish media shows that the Turkish move was not intended to win public sympathy, but only focused on something more important and tangible in the field of intelligence.
The very intervention of Mossad chief David Barnea in the affair, and his success in bringing about the release of the couple, reinforces the assessment that this is a purely intelligence issue.
So what is Turkey expected to want from Israel?
Given the immediate friction points of the two countries, there is a reasonable chance that Turkish demands are mainly focused on four different arenas: Hamas activities within Turkey, and deepening Turkish activities in the Gaza Strip, Judea and Samaria and of course the Israeli capital, Jerusalem. Israel will agree to cease operations on Turkish soil, including through "contract workers".
At the same time, it is likely that Israel will grant full freedom of action to the Turkish associations, which in turn seek to penetrate even further into Judea and Samaria and Gaza. Giving such a permit in Jerusalem would be a serious mistake for Israeli interests, since the Turkish associations are already working today - openly - against the "Judaization of Jerusalem." Alongside the humanitarian aspect, there are fears that Turkey will seek to take Egypt's role as a mediator between Hamas and Israel regarding a prisoner deal - and even to end violent rounds. Granting such status to Turkey would be a first-class strategic mistake.
Given the telephone conversation between President Herzog and President Erdogan from yesterday and the potential moves, there is indeed a chance that the State of Israel will normalize relations.
Although normalization on paper is perceived as a positive word and is necessary for Israel's security, decision makers in Jerusalem must be vigilant in the face of the normalization of normalization with Ankara: that is, Israel must maintain the integrity of the alliance it made with Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
Jerusalem is required to internalize that it is no longer the isolated state since 1948. Israel is stronger today than ever.
Therefore, any normalization move with Turkey is welcome, provided it is a real normalization that will serve the immediate interests of the country.
The author is an expert on Turkey at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University and the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Defense
