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Who are undecided voters in Chile, a key player in the elections

2021-11-18T14:10:03.377Z


Chile will hold an atypical presidential election next Sunday in which undecided voters have become key.


Patricio Fernández: "We have great expectations for the next elections" 3:56

(CNN Spanish) -

Chile will attend an atypical presidential election next Sunday in the midst of an ongoing Constitutional Convention, a wave of violence in several regions that led to a state of exception - which has just been extended - and the impeachment against its president, Sebastián Piñera, who finally did not prosper.

In this context, the undecided will be key.

In this context, neither of the two main candidates, José Kast and Gabriel Boric, exceeds 25% in voting intentions for the November 21 elections, according to the latest surveys from Plaza Pública Cadem.

22% would not vote for any, do not know or do not respond.

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This survey was conducted between November 2 and 4 through cell phone calls, and 1,010 people over 18 years of age were consulted, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, according to the Plaza Pública Cadem methodology.

Behind Kast (Republican Party, 25% intention of votes) and Boric (Pacto Approve Dignity, 19%), appear Franco Parisi (People's Party, 10%) and Yasna Provoste (Christian Democratic Party, 9%), for what the undecided constitute the second preference after Kast.

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Who are the undecided in the elections in Chile?

"For some time, it has happened all over the world and also in Chile, there is a very great volatility of the vote that prevents making projections," Ernesto Ottone, an academic at the College of World Studies in Paris, told CNN.

"The current contemporary vote is very volatile, driven not so much by interests as by emotions, impulses or fears, and it can change in a very short time."

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If the polls are confirmed in the November 21 elections, there will be a second round among the most voted candidates - which could be Kast and Boric - given that neither will have obtained 50% plus 1 of the votes required by the Chilean Constitution in the first place. lap.

In that instance, the Public Square poll indicates that Kast would obtain 44% of the votes compared to Boric's 40%.

However, in its previous measurement at the end of October, the consultancy indicated that Boric would win with 43%, compared to 35% of its possible rival.

"In the second round it will be seen how strong is the fear of Kast's conservative vision or the fear of economic problems with Boric," Ottone considered.

"Every time there is a greater sector of the society that decides at the last moment, almost in the same ballot box. This poses problems for the polls: an electorate that has very little loyalty," he added.

The controversial far-right candidate José Antonio Kast adds support 3:15

The impact of the undecided on the bottom line

The behavior of that 22% of undecided - who in August reached 38% - will be key in these elections without clear preferences among the electorate.

According to the Activa / Pulso Ciudadano survey, the undecided would reach 14.5%.

In this case, 2,352 people over 18 years of age were consulted through online interviews between November 2 and 5, 2021, with a 2% margin of error, according to the published methodology.

Patricio Navia, a political scientist and professor at New York University, told CNN that due to the fact that there are several candidates with little intention to vote, the undecided are "very important" because they could change the order of arrival and even end up generating a result outside of Kast and Boric.

"The undecided do not pay much attention to politics, if they decide to vote for a candidate the results may change," Navia said.

"The days leading up to the election show that Kast and Boric are weak, although none of the others have risen."

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Ottone also highlighted that at the moment there are no elements to know if participation will be high in these elections.

Since Chile annulled the mandatory voting by law 20,568, participation in presidential elections has been 49.13% in 2013 and 46.64% in 2017, according to official figures.

"I see it difficult for there to be high participation, we are coming out of the pandemic and perhaps the participation of older people is less," Navia said.

"But fear mobilizes a lot, and given that Boric and Kast are candidates from the extremes perhaps it can change something," he added.

The influence of the Constitutional Convention on elections

Regarding the possible impact of the Constitutional Convention, launched since July 7 with the aim of drafting a new constitution, Ottone told CNN that this and the presidential elections are going by "separate ropes."

"In people's heads, they are two things that go on separate lines," he said.

Chaired by Mapuche activist Elisa Loncón, the Constitutional Convention seeks to replace the 1980 Constitution, adopted during the Pinochet dictatorship.

The call for its drafting was approved in 2020 through a plebiscite and seeks to incorporate new rights and guarantees into the text - which should be ready by mid-2022 - in a context of legitimacy crisis and social conflict.

The Constituent Assembly has many challenges 3:35

The Constitutional Convention is the result of the "social outbreak" of 2019, a wave of massive demonstrations in Chile due to the high costs of living and inequality that led to violent clashes between protesters and the police, leaving at least 31 dead.

For Navia, the Constitutional Convention has "the last word" in these elections.

"The election is less important than a normal election because if the Convention does not like the result, it could impose greater restrictions on the president," he explained.

Chile before the presidential elections

Chile is one of the richest countries in the region, but it suffered a setback in its economy in 2020 due to the covid-19 pandemic - its GDP fell by 6%, its worst recession in decades - and is looking for the path to reactivation .

The country is also experiencing a migration crisis that has led to numerous violent incidents between residents and migrants trying to reach the country.

An image of the "social outbreak" in Chile in 2019.

And in mid-October Piñera decreed a state of constitutional exception in Araucanía and other regions, citing as a cause "the serious and repeated acts of violence linked to drug trafficking, terrorism and organized crime committed by armed groups."

The state of exception was extended twice, the last time on November 9, in the face of a situation that is partly part of the historic Mapuche conflict, which affects both Chile and Argentina.

Another situation that framed the elections was the constitutional accusation against Piñera, which was approved by the Chamber of Deputies but not by the Senate, for which he was not removed from office.

The accusation was brought by the opposition after it was known in the Pandora papers that the president's family sold their part in the Minera Dominga mining project to another Chilean businessman, and that the agreement occurred in the British Virgin Islands.

Piñera had previously denied having committed any irregularity in the sale of Minera Dominga.

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Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2021-11-18

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