The Judea and Samaria Division held its annual exercise last week.
As always, the scenarios practiced were extreme: from the transition to an emergency that required a quick takeover of the West Bank, to dealing with complex kidnapping attacks.
Unlike previous exercises, this time the participants lamented the feeling that some of the things practiced might happen in reality.
There is no indication of something specific - if it were, it would be frustrating - but a combination of a variety of indications, and a sober look to the future, show that the area is facing change, and not necessarily for the better.
Or as the outgoing division commander, Brigadier General Yaniv Al-Aluf, concluded: "We are at the beginning of a new era, the introduction of which is being written these days."
The dramatic event is the ongoing loss of governance of the Palestinian Authority.
It is manifested almost every day, in every sector.
From an increase in criminal crime (including drugs, protection and the arms trade), to a decrease in the number of arrests of Hamas members carrying out the PA's security apparatus.
The result is that the negative factors in the field raise their heads.
In some areas of the West Bank these are criminals, and in others - terrorist elements.
Earlier this month, a senior Hamas official in northern Samaria died in Korona.
His funeral became a mass demonstration of the organization, including the raising of flags and open defiance of the Palestinian Authority.
Abu Mazen was furious, and in response ousted all the commanding staff of the security forces in the sector.
This week he appointed them replacements, who have not yet taken office.
They are expected to return governance to the territory, but need to be particularly optimistic to believe it will happen.
Heavy inheritance
Abu Mazen celebrated his 86th birthday on Monday this week. A Palestinian state will no longer be established in his day, but the twilight of his tenure casts a heavy shadow even on what will be left of his legacy. The future of the PA is in the fog: it is being gnawed at from the outside by Hamas, which is gaining strength and power, and it is being gnawed at the inside as a result of the rivalry over the chief's inheritance.
It is difficult to miss the concern of the top security officials in Israel, who understand that nothing good will come of it. In the absence of a political horizon, the steering wheel and stability are dedicated to the IDF and the GSS. They are the ones who hold the security and ensure the relative calm on the ground, and they are the ones who may be required to keep the Palestinian Authority alive in the future - to prevent its enemies (who are the enemies of Israel) from taking over Judea and Samaria, as they did a decade and a half ago in Gaza.
As reported this week, the new head of the GSS, Ronen Bar, recently met with Abu Mazen in Ramallah. This was not Bar's only meeting in the Arab world. In Jordan, these meetings were part of the process of taking office: getting to know leaders and senior officials in the parallel security services, with the aim of creating a personal relationship with them that can be relied on in day-to-day work and especially on command day.
This is critical in the face of the Palestinian Authority. Security coordination has saved lives in the last decade, on both sides. The weakening of the Palestinian security apparatus is bad news for the PA, but also for Israel. It imposes an additional burden on the GSS, which is leading the counterterrorism efforts. Arrests made in the past by the Palestinians are now carried out by the IDF, which conducts 120-80 counterterrorism operations on average per week (4-3 per night).
In most cases, terrorism is exposed and thwarted even in its initial stages of preparation. But the organization that was recently exposed in Samaria has taught that there are exceptions. She grew up in the GSS under her nose, planned large-scale attacks (from bombings to kidnappings) and amassed a large amount of weapons (from explosive devices to rifles). To date, more than 40 members of this Hamas-organized and funded organization have been arrested in Gaza.
The positive side is that this plot was thwarted before it was carried out.
The downside is threefold: that Hamas' terrorist efforts do not cease and their sophistication and daring in a constant trend of aliyah, that organizations sometimes manage to roll over for quite some time until they are exposed, and that it is not certain that this whole affair has cracked.
Stronghold of Hamas in the West Bank in Hebron, while this organization was revealed in several locations in the West Bank. The fear is that splitting her extra-yet thwarted, and can be enabled in the future.
In an attempt to strengthen the Palestinian Authority, Israel is trying to operate routes in a civil ceremony. The Minister for Regional Cooperation, Issawi Freij , Visited Oslo this week to raise money for civilian projects. The hope is that raising the standard of living will keep citizens away from terrorism. In the case of the bodies of IDF martyrs and Israeli civilians held in Gaza.
Explosive minefield
But Judea and Samaria is not stable not only because of the Palestinian side, but also Jewish extremists are raising their heads. The death of her beloved godfather during a police chase, to the sense of laxity of law enforcement when required to deal with incidents of violence by Jews.
The IDF operates in the West Bank with relatively limited forces: 12 battalions, and several other border companies. This makes it possible to hold the territory, and focus on Palestinian terrorism. Dealing with violence against Jews is a secondary priority, and in any case it is less convenient for the army. Soldiers who secure settlements, and sometimes eat with residents on Saturday nights, encounter those they protect when confronting Palestinians. "We are not good at it," an officer in the sector admitted this week. "It's a job for the police, not the military."
But the police in Judea and Samaria are weak, and so are their forces. This returns the bullet to the army. "This is also at the cost of confronting some of the elements on the ground. In order for him to succeed, he needs the clear support of his commanders and managers - from the Chief of Staff."To the Prime Minister's Committee - who meanwhile refrain from making clear value statements that could complicate them in this explosive minefield.
The one who intends to act is Defense Minister Ganz.
Yesterday, he convened a hearing to discuss the situation in Judea and Samaria. Just like on the Palestinian side, the horizon on the Jewish side does not bode well. Removal orders for Jews - what immediately radiates on the ground.
This blink must stop. Not only because it is a matter of law and order in a democratic state, but because its potential is particularly explosive. Jewish terrorism will inevitably lead to an increase in Palestinian terrorism And directly - to the detriment of the security of us all.
