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US estimates: "Short window of opportunity to prevent Russian invasion of Ukraine"
The New York Times reports that Washington and NATO members are formulating an economic and military response in case Putin decides to launch a new operation in Ukraine in light of the large concentration of forces on the border.
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United States
Russia
Ukraine
Vladimir Putin
Guy Elster
Saturday, November 20, 2021, 11:00 p.m.
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The West is trying to figure out if the crises are related.
Russian and Belarusian forces in joint exercise, this month (Photo: AP)
The United States has warned its European allies that there is still a small window of opportunity to prevent Russia from taking military action against Ukraine, the New York Times reported Saturday night in the New York Times. Due to this concern, based on Russia's large concentration of forces within Ukraine's borders, the West began to formulate a package of economic and military measures designed to deter Moscow.
According to US sources, Russia has not yet made a decision on its next move, but its concentration of forces has been taken seriously and Washington does not think it is a show. The head of the US intelligence service, Avril Haynes, traveled to Brussels this week to brief NATO ambassadors on the US intelligence information on the situation and the potential Russian military operation. The immediate issue in the talks was the fear of a Russian attack.
The United States has also shared the information it has with Ukraine.
Yesterday discussed the chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff US General Mark Milly, the commander of the army Ukraine on the "activities alarming in the region" of Russia, according to a statement of the Joint Chiefs.
Intelligence American and British are convinced more and more that the president of Russia Vladimir Putin is considering military action to take over more territory From Ukraine, or to destabilize the country so that a more pro-Russian government would be formed.
More on the subject
On the way to resolving the crisis?
Belarus evacuated the immigrant camps on the Polish border
May take advantage of the energy crisis in Europe.
Putin, this week (Photo: AP)
As early as April, a similar concern arose as Russia concentrated forces near its borders with Ukraine, but the current force movement, which includes more troops and advanced equipment, has caused greater concern. This is partly because Russia is trying to disrupt the activities of the UAVs to gather intelligence from Ukraine. In addition, the fighting in eastern Ukraine has flared up since Ukraine used an UAV to attack the rebels' artillery position, and in response Russia launched fighter jets.
"It's not inevitable that there will be an exacerbation of the kinetic conflict, but all the parts have already come together," said Frederick Hodges, a former United States military commander in Europe and now a member of the Center for European Policy. "If we, in the West, seem incoherent and willing to work together, then the chances of the Kremlin making a bitter mistake in the calculation increase."
US intelligence has identified Putin's growing frustration with Ukraine's peace process, set up by France and Germany in 2014 after Moscow annexed the Crimean peninsula and ignited a separatist uprising in eastern Ukraine. Several former officials have said Putin may want to secure a land connection between eastern Ukraine and Crimea, and so U.S. experts believe Putin sees the coming months a unique opportunity to act. This is, among other things, in light of the change of government in Germany, with the end of Chancellor Angela Merkel's long tenure.
In addition, the surge in energy prices has made Europe more dependent on cheap gas supplies from Russia, especially in the coming winter months and in light of the depletion of Europe's gas reserves. Europe's fears of losing access to Russian energy may limit support for tougher sanctions on it.
A Western source said Russia had already begun manipulating energy supplies to Europe.
According to the source, when energy prices are global, Putin feels he has more room for maneuver.
In addition, rising prices have increased Russia's profits and its ability to finance military operations.
NATO describes the concentration of forces as "large and unusual". Blinkan and his Ukrainian counterpart in Washington, D.C.
The US administration wants to create a "common prescription" for actions to be taken by the United States and Europe in the event of a new military operation by Russia against Ukraine.
While there are parts of Russia's economy that have not yet been sanctioned, the United States will need to consolidate support for Europe to impose new measures that will be effective.
On Thursday, the Senate finally approved Julian Smith's candidacy as the new United States ambassador to NATO. For months, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz delayed approving her appointment, making it even harder for U.S. efforts to formulate a unified response to the growing threat Ukraine.
At the same time, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg yesterday described the concentration of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border as "large and unusual". In Berlin.
"Not sure exactly what Putin is planning"
According to a recent report from the Center for International and Strategic Studies, Russia has sent forces to a site in the Crimean peninsula known as the "Cape Opocal" and transferred a larger number of forces to a former warehouse complex near the Russian town of Pavlovsk. Currently, short-range tanks, Hovitzer cannons and Iskander missiles are under attack from the Ukrainian border.
Earlier this week, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin also warned against concentrating Russian forces at the border. "We are not sure exactly what Putin is planning, but we are following these movements," he said.
Washington's fears have escalated after CIA chief William Burns visited Moscow this month on behalf of President Joe Biden to warn Moscow of an attack on Ukraine. US officials have warned Russia that using its powers to threaten Ukraine or take over more of its territories is unacceptable, and will provoke a determined response from the West.
While some have warned that it is too early to judge Moscow's response, others believe that Russia does not take the threat of the West seriously.
Intelligence sources are still trying to figure out if there is a connection between the crisis on the Belarus-Poland border and the concentration of Russian forces on the border with Ukraine.
At this point, intelligence sources said they had not found Russia's direct involvement in the crisis, and there are those who believe that Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko created it himself with little, if any, Russian involvement.
However, a Western source said that NATO members should note that the two events occur in parallel, and that Putin has a long history of exploiting crises in neighboring countries to advance his interests.
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