The videos on social media did not leave much room for imagination.
Long columns of Russian armor, flexible tanks and combat vehicles of all kinds have been moved to bases near the western border of Russia while the whole world sees.
Amateurs filmed on mobile phones and from above satellites documented the vast gathering areas of the huge army that was being built on the doorstep of a country interested in joining the NATO alliance.
While the Kremlin's highly hidden threat is growing in the face of Ukraine's borders, in the form of a force of more than 100,000 troops, armor, helicopters and fighter jets, the Putin regime continues to deny Western accusations, claiming its right to carry out military movements in Russia and no Russian intent. To embark on a military operation in the territory of Russia's neighbors.
The American reaction seems feverish and confused.
Washington yesterday sent to Ukraine two patrol ships, part of a reconstruction of the Ukrainian navy, after it fell entirely into Russian hands during the invasion of the Crimean peninsula in 2014. But apart from the completion of arms deals with Kiev, significant military steps were not taken by the Biden administration.
Defense Minister Lloyd Austin was sent to meet with his Ukrainian counterpart but apart from Britain, which announced sending special forces to the country, actual military aid or even increasing NATO forces in neighboring countries did not come up for discussion.
The fear in Kiev is that now, as in 2014, Ukraine may find itself alone in the battle against one of the most powerful armies in the world.
Although the Ukrainian army is not the army it was eight years ago, it has since gained significant facelift, rich combat experience and the acquisition of quality weapons such as Jablin anti-tank missiles and deadly UAV-made UAVs. The world is shaking in the corridors of power in Kiev.
While the United States takes Putin's words seriously, all emerges from a New York Times publication, and does not consider it a bluff or a threat designed to squeeze concessions, like building Russian forces near a border in April, there are several possible scenarios for a Russian military operation in Ukraine. Specific military let will be achieved within a time period of between days and weeks, without risking a significant response from the West or being sucked into an endless cycle of combat.
The first, and more likely, option is limited operation near the Crimean peninsula, one that will ensure access from the peninsula to water sources like the Dnieper River that will provide water sources for the territory Russia annexed in 2014. The second option is a larger operation that would include the occupation of any mossy coastline , All comment from Mariupol that remains under Ukrainian control and in fact blocks direct land access between the Crimean peninsula and Russia. Such an option could prove to be more military complex and would require the deployment of large military forces and large naval maneuvers.
The third, and more dangerous, option for Russia is an invasion aimed at aiding pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine, in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
The rebels revolted against Russia and established two separate republics in the provinces in 2014. This led to ongoing fighting that continues at a low intensity even today.
Such an action could require the retention of Russian military forces deep in Ukrainian territory, which could lead to high casualties and prolonged fighting, which could not be accepted with understanding among Russian public opinion and severe pressure from the West.
But if it is not entirely clear what Russian military action on Ukrainian territory would look like, it is clear to everyone that this is a real possibility in case Putin feels he has an opportunity or a fitness hour and a lack of a determined response from the West could bring this fitness hour closer and endanger Ukraine.
