Miami prepares to welcome 2 million travelers on Thanksgiving 3:25
New York (CNN Business) -
The Christmas travel season is off to a relatively mild start, with good weather and few flights canceled.
But many in the industry worry that luck won't last until the holiday season ends, right after the New Year.
Major US airlines operate with fewer pilots and flight attendants than before the pandemic.
With bookings almost returning to normal, airlines are trying to do more with less this holiday season.
The October service collapses at Southwest Airlines and American Airlines demonstrate what happens when schedules are disrupted without the staffing levels needed to quickly recover from canceled flights.
Problems multiply rapidly, resulting in hundreds of additional cancellations.
"I think all airlines are on edge," said Casey Murray, president of the Southwest Airlines Pilots Association.
"A blizzard or major event could cause lengthy delays and cancellations."
And anyone with their flight canceled will have trouble finding an alternate way to get to their destination.
"If there are problems, rearranging people with canceled flights will be difficult. The planes are very full," said Savi Syth, an airline analyst at Raymond James.
advertising
Pandemic Travel 2.0: How to travel on Thanksgiving this year?
Staff shortage
Airlines that have experienced recent service outages admitted they did not have enough staff to deal with the issues.
Bob Jordan, who will become CEO of Southwest early next year, told investors last month that weather and air traffic control issues caused "a significant number of crews and aircraft to be out of position and then that it took several days to recover. "
"We inconvenience thousands of customers and further challenge our stellar employees," he said.
"And I just want to apologize to both our customers and our employees."
Jordan said Southwest is making additional adjustments to its program to make sure that doesn't happen again.
When air traffic almost came to a halt during the first months of the pandemic, all airlines used early retirement and procurement packages to voluntarily cut staff.
They are all struggling to increase staffing now, but it takes time to hire, train and certify pilots and flight attendants, so much of the current hiring is done with an eye toward next summer's travel season, not for this fall and winter, Syth said.
How to pack your carry-on bag and not have to pay for extra luggage
Operation settings
All airlines say they are prepared to deal with disruptions caused by weather or other problems such as air traffic control problems.
"To ensure we provide certainty to both our customers and team members, we are redoubling our efforts related to our itinerary and staff," said David Seymour, American's chief operating officer, in a note to airline staff.
"On the scheduling front, we've made sure our November and December months are tailored to meet customer demand and are fully supported by our staff."
But Dennis Tajer, a spokesman for the Allied Pilots Association, American's pilots union and an active pilot himself, said he is concerned that American is reducing its staff too much.
"We want to fly these flights. But the evidence from earlier this year shows what happens when things don't go according to plan," he said.
"They are building the right itinerary for as many flights as possible and it doesn't provide flexibility for when things go wrong. Hope doesn't make planes fly."
Southwest is trying to operate its current itinerary with about 15% fewer pilots than before the pandemic, according to Murray, even though the number of flights hasn't been cut nearly as much.
That leaves much less resilience when problems arise.
Fewer flights for Christmas trips
Overall, the number of domestic flights planned from last weekend to just after New Year's Day is down 12% compared to the same period in 2019. This, according to data from Cirium, a data-tracking service of airlines.
Among the big four US airlines that handle about 80% of air traffic, Southwest and American have the most aggressive itineraries compared to their pre-pandemic levels.
The number of flights is down just 10% at Southwest and 9% at American.
Meanwhile, Delta and United are down more than 13% compared to 2019.
Executives at United and Delta say their more limited schedule should allow them to avoid the service problems experienced at Southwest and American earlier this fall.
"If we wanted to be bigger than we are, we honestly couldn't. We could be a little bit, maybe, but not much bigger without risking operational performance issues like you've seen in other airlines," he told investors last month. Delta president Glen Hauenstein.
"So we want to stay where we are confident that we can really fly with the schedules that we set."
Two of Europe's top destinations move into CDC's highest travel risk category
"Our north in this recovery is to make sure we do the right thing for clients. And if that means sacrificing some potential short-term profits to ensure a reliable operation, then so be it."
So said United CEO Scott Kirby in a letter to customers explaining his airline's reduced itinerary.
Murray, the head of Southwest's pilots union, says his airline has made changes to its operations since the service collapse in October that resulted in the cancellation of 2,000 flights over a weekend and tens of thousands of stranded passengers.
"I'm not as worried as I was all summer," he said.
Thanksgiving
