By Maria Cheng -
The Associated Press
South African scientists have identified a
new variant
of the coronavirus
this week
that could explain the sudden
increase in infections
in that country. The
World Health Organization
has brought together its experts to analyze the danger of this new strain, which contains at least
thirty mutations
that could make it more easily transmissible. Several European countries have
restricted their flights
to southern Africa despite the fact that cases have already been detected
around the world
and it could be more widespread than is known. Infections were already rising strongly in Europe and the United States for weeks with the onset of
winter
, and the fear of this new variant has caused a sharp fall in
financial
markets
and the price of
oil
.
What is the new South African variant like?
South African scientists this week identified a new variant of the coronavirus that they say explains the recent surge in infections in Gauteng, the country's most populous province.
Where it originated is unknown: it
was first detected in South Africa, but cases have already been recorded in travelers arriving in Belgium, Botswana, Hong Kong and Israel.
South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said the variant, now named B.1.1.529,
is related to an "exponential increase" in cases in recent days
, although experts are still trying to determine if it is really responsible.
A group of people wearing face masks in a shopping mall in Johannesburg, South Africa, on November 26, 2021 Denis Farrell / AP
Of the nearly 200 new infections confirmed a day in recent weeks in that country, the number of cases soared to 2,465 on Thursday.
Unable to explain this spike, the scientists studied samples of the virus and discovered the new variant.
Why are you worried about this new variant?
The first indications indicate that it
may have about 30 mutations
in the spike protein of the coronavirus, which could facilitate its spread.
[The United States will require vaccines for essential travelers who cross the border as of January 22]
Sharon Peacock, who has led the genetic sequencing of COVID-19 at the British University of Cambridge, pointed out that so far the data suggests that
the new variant has mutations "consistent with greater transmissibility"
, but "the significance of many of the mutations are not yet known. "
Lawrence Young, a virologist at the British University of Warwick, described the variant as
"the most mutated version of the virus that we have seen
.
"
This situation is worrying, he said, especially because "it appears to be spreading rapidly."
What is still unknown about this variant?
Scientists know that the new variant is
genetically different from the previous ones
, including beta and delta, but they do not know if these genetic changes make it more transmittable or dangerous.
For the White House, it is vaccines and not another quarantine that will stop the new COVID-19 outbreak
Nov. 23, 202100: 34
South African researchers have observed an increase in cases, but do not know if it is responsible.
It will take weeks to determine if the vaccines are still effective.
There is currently no indication that it causes a more serious form of COVID-19.
South African experts say that, as with other variants, some infected do not have any symptoms.
Although some of the genetic changes in the new variant seem concerning, it
is
still too
early to conclude whether the virus will pose a significant threat to public health
.
Some earlier variants, such as the beta, also initially concerned scientists.
[COVID-19 deaths double in the United States]
François Balloux, director of the Institute of Genetics at University College London, said it is impossible to make any predictions about whether this virus is more dangerous or infectious based solely on its genetic makeup.
How did this new variant come about?
The coronavirus mutates as it spreads, but many of the newer variants - including those with worrisome genetic changes - tend to just disappear.
Scientists monitor COVID-19 sequences for mutations that may make the disease more communicable or deadly, but they cannot determine this simply by looking at the virus.
They must compare the disease pattern in the outbreaks with the genetic sequences.
Determining if there is a real connection can take time.
A woman receives the COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer in Johannesburg, South Africa, on October 21, 2021 Denis Farrell / AP
Peacock noted that the variant "
may have evolved in someone who was infected but was unable to clear the virus
, giving him the opportunity to evolve genetically."
It would be a scenario similar to how experts believe that the alpha variant - which was identified for the first time in England - also arose, by mutating in an immunosuppressed person.
Are travel restrictions justified?
Maybe.
From this Friday, travelers arriving in the United Kingdom from South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland and Zimbabwe will have to
isolate themselves for 10 days
.
Several European Union countries also moved quickly on Friday to suspend air connections with southern Africa.
Given the recent rapid rise in COVID-19 cases in South Africa,
restricting travel from the region is "prudent,"
said Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease expert at Imperial College London.
[Why COVID-19 Booster Vaccines Were Not Authorized Earlier for All Adults]
Balloux, of University College London, predicted that if the new variant turns out to be more infectious than delta, the new restrictions will have little impact, although they could give some time to increase vaccination rates and put other possible prevention measures in place.
What will happen next?
WHO has convened a technical group of experts to decide whether the new variant deserves to be designated a variant of interest or variant of concern.
If so, the variant will probably be named after a letter in the Greek alphabet, consistent with the current naming system.
Several European cities protest restrictions imposed after the outbreak of COVID-19
Nov. 22, 202100: 27
The variants of interest - which currently include the mu and lambda variants - present genetic changes that are known to affect aspects such as transmissibility and severity of the disease.
The worrisome variants - which include alpha, beta and delta -
have been shown to spread more easily
, cause more serious disease, or make current tools, such as vaccines, less effective.
To date, the delta variant remains by far the most easily transmitted, accounting for more than 99% of the sequences shared with the world's largest public database.