Within Reach
If I had to pick just one issue worthy of a state commission of inquiry, I would choose the Iranian nuclear program. More important and urgent than the submarine and space ship affair (important and urgent in itself), important from the Meron disaster, important from the escape of the prisoners, important from all the other burning issues on the agenda. This subject is not burning, it is ticking. Nuclear ticking. The Iranians have never been so close to a bomb (it is advisable to ignore the former Mossad chief's attempt to rewrite and glorify the current situation).
The catastrophe we face now, the helplessness, the lack of options, there are parents. There are those responsible. There is a reason and a twist. And there were those who warned. Almost all professionals have warned. Clear and explicit warnings. Even I, the little one, heard in real time some of the senior members of the defense establishment at the time (chiefs of staff, heads of the Armed Forces, heads of the Armed Forces Research Division, etc.) say something like this: Leaving the nuclear agreement without an alternative can lead to disaster.
The nuclear deal is not perfect, it has holes in it, but it gives a 12-year silence.
He is rolling Iran back two years from a bomb.
An American exit from it without early summaries of alternative plans could open the gates of hell.
The Iranians will return to advance and enrich uranium and it will be impossible to come to them with complaints.
It is not clear what the Americans will do in this case and it is not clear which Americans are involved.
After all, you can not really trust Trump.
He may leave us alone in the moment of truth.
It is impossible to build on the fact that he will attack Iran.
It is impossible to build on the fall of the regime.
It is impossible to build on the fact that the regime will surrender and crawl to a new and better agreement.
This is a hallucination.
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Get out of the agreement and impose sanctions on the Iranian regime, Trump (Photo: Reuters)
These things were said.
They echoed in closed rooms.
They are listed in the protocols.
But the decision maker ignored.
He was in euphoria.
He and his associates (really) ran the White House.
Their ambassador, one Ron Drummer, was actually the chief of staff of the President of the United States.
The sweet intoxication of power along with the cult of personality from home, did their thing.
We celebrated a victory, not knowing it was a defeat.
Trump withdrew from the agreement, adding and imposing sanctions on the Iranian regime and life looked beautiful.
The Iranians calculated their summer backwards.
It was wonderful.
It was a gift that never ceases to give.
Until the gift lost the election and the thinking backwards turned out to be our end.
On the eve of his departure from the White House, Trump still considered attacking Iran at the last minute, but senior military officials prevented him from doing so. The Iranian regime did not fall. The Iranian regime did not crawl back into negotiations for a better agreement. On the contrary: the Iranians renewed their enrichment almost immediately after the Americans left the agreement. It was their right. In terms of fissile material, they are two months bombed ( Still at a distance of about a year to a year and a half.) When they were in the agreement, they were left with a few enriched kilograms to the level of 3.5%. To the original agreement. Small on them. They make school for the west, cooperate with the east, mock america. For them, they are the superpower and the rest of the world its metastases. And they have a good reason to behave like that.
All this, a forced creation of Israel.
Now, to add insult to injury, the Biden administration is desperate to get back to the original agreement and talk about some options.
The first is "less for less" or "freeze for freeze".
That is, they do not return to the agreement, but lower the heavy sanctions in exchange for the "freeze" of Iranian enrichment.
This possibility is defined in Jerusalem as "a strategic disaster, a horrific scenario that means an obvious blackmail show by Iran that will end in a bomb."
Desperate to return to original agreement, Biden (Photo: AP)
Nuclear bleeding
Prime Minister Bennett's speech this week was groundbreaking. Following this, Bennett was criticized for becoming a babysitter, imitating Netanyahu's horror show against the Obama administration, and so on. The reality is much more complex. First, when it comes to the severity of the situation, Bennett is not alone. Along with him, on the same standout, are also Foreign Minister Lapid, Defense Minister Ganz (who this week made an equally amazing historic visit to Morocco), President Herzog, Chief of Staff Kochavi, Finance Minister Lieberman and all the heads of the security forces.
There are nuances. Ganz and Lapid will talk less about the situation in public from Bennett. They will also not give advice to Americans and will not send them implicit or direct bites, through indirect briefings or direct speech. Bennett, in this respect, is now different from his partners. He does not declare war, he does not go into jihad, there is no way he would have traveled behind Biden's back to address the two houses of Congress. For those who forgot: that Netanyahu's trip ended in defeat and victory. Defeat in the battle for the nuclear, because the agreement was approved and passed easily. Victory, because that speech helped Netanyahu defeat Yitzhak Herzog in the 2015 elections (which took place two weeks later). The election was more important to Netanyahu than the nuclear struggle.
Bennett believes that what is happening now must not be passed over in silence.
National Security Adviser Dr. Eyal Hulta has returned from the strategic dialogue in Manama, Bahrain, more concerned than he has been. He spoke there with senior US officials, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. , Was perceived in Jerusalem as inconceivable.
Believes it is forbidden to go over what is happening in silence, Bennett (Photo: screenshot, conference spokeswoman)
"An evening back to negotiations with Iran, to brand our activities against the Iranian nuclear program as a failure, it is unlikely," say the Bennett environment, "what we are doing is conveying the message in all possible ways: we need to return to Vienna talks in a different approach. Need to replace diskette. The Iranians are branding talks in Vienna as a move to lift sanctions. They're celebrating it. They rejoice, because the moderate Rohani has not succeeded and the extremist Raisi has succeeded. It is a terrible, destructive message to continue the effort against the nucleus. "
As far as Bennett (and his partners) are concerned, Israel is not bound by the agreement, if any. There is a nuance here: in 2015, after the agreement between Iran and the superpowers was signed, Israel aligned itself and stopped direct counterterrorism against the Iranian nuclear program. When Trump arrived and then, when he withdrew from the agreement, Israel returned to physical action. But now not 2015. According to Bennett, the situation is now much worse. The Iranians are much closer. We do not have the maneuvering space we had six years ago. Therefore, says Bennett, that error will not return. We will not freeze the effort and activity for even one moment. We can not afford it. We are in fateful days and a dramatic event. An urgent arterial occlusion should now be placed on the nuclear hemorrhage. If the world does not do this, Israel will have to do it.
This is "Hold Me," the next generation.
The problem is that Israel's threats in 2021 are far less credible than its threats in 2015.
The commission of inquiry will have to examine how we got into this situation.
Who abandoned the military option.
Who did not take care of alternative plans and did not try to coordinate intentions and plans with the Americans.
As strange as it may sound, a full return of all parties to the original agreement is now considered, in light of the situation, a huge and unattainable achievement.
Israel would criticize such a move, but swallow it.
It would at least have put Iran back.
In the absence of such an option, various interim agreements are seen here as a disaster.
A crisis and the explosion of talks can be a glimmer of new hope.
In such a situation, Israel hopes for what is known as a snap back, the return of the most severe paralyzing sanctions of the powers.
Right now, it looks like science fiction.
The tails wiggle in the dog
Let us ignore for a moment the sections of the indictment against Benjamin Netanyahu. The judges will rule on his case based on the evidence presented to them. The appellate judges will determine the final and final judgment. Contrary to what the herd of trumpets and the rags that follow them are familiar to you, nothing has collapsed. Case 4000 stands on its machine, slowly being built in front of the judges. The huge puzzle is filled with thousands of details, testimonies, angles and pictures. If we liken a football game, a trial, from the moment it starts until the final verdict is received after the appeal, then we are around the 15th minute of the first half. We have a long time until the break, followed by another half, followed by extra time (appeal), followed by injury time and finally maybe penalties. Yellow and red cards, upheavals and surprises are expected (remember Shula Zaken, who turned the table on Olmert between the verdict and the appeal?). At the end of the road, three people will have to make a decision based on a huge mass of information that they have digested, analyzed and filtered for years.
Let us focus on something completely different: the picture before our eyes from the testimony of state witness Nir Hefetz, and many other testimonies that will be heard later.
An image that readers of this column have known for a long time, but some, I guess, did not believe it.
A picture that paints a dramatic kidnapping incident: Benjamin Netanyahu is not master of his fate and does not make his own decisions.
As written here countless times, "he has no majority on the board."
His wife and son are in charge.
Literally.
(Photo: Knesset Spokeswoman, screenshot)
The new edition of my book on Netanyahu ("Netanyahu: Biography") includes a chapter called "The Tails Wiggle the Dog." This is how this chapter opens: On Monday, April 2, 2018, Benjamin Netanyahu convened a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office in Jerusalem. Sitting there next to him was Interior Minister Aryeh Deri. The atmosphere was festive. Mood is essential. Netanyahu had good news: an unprecedented outline that is supposed to solve the problem of asylum seekers - or labor infiltrators, depending on the point of view - in south Tel Aviv. And if not the whole thing, then at least a considerable part of it. Some 30,000 African labor infiltrators stuck a stake in the southern neighborhoods of the first Hebrew city - a human overcrowding that turned the lives of many Israelis there, a weakened population anyway, into hell. Now, for the first time, Netanyahu is about to announce a solution for them.
After a long effort, the head of the National Security Council, Meir Ben-Shabbat, together with the UN and the international community, formulated an agreed-upon, rather creative outline. The main points: the transfer of half of the foreigners, about 16,000, to a third country, with the consent and even assistance of the UN, at the same time as the other half will be dispersed between the various cities of Israel. This type. They have no substitute. The Israelis have long been fed up with the type of jobs they staff, even the Arab citizens of Israel. Even the Palestinians. And that is not the end of the story.
Ben-Shabbat not only conducted the negotiations, he is in fact the father of the idea. He initiated the contacts after being convinced that Israel has no better alternatives, later convincing the head of the staff, Yoav Horowitz, who convinced Netanyahu. Now the latter is about to announce the result Get a people and a world, convinced that it is not only the most logical outline in the current circumstances, but the only one.
However, Harel in the Prime Minister's Office wore a holiday. Netanyahu reviewed the program in a confident and stable voice and invested his best persuasive abilities in a presentation he showed to journalists. He explained that the government has no more effective alternatives, adding that "sometimes difficult decisions have to be made. We have made the right decision for Israel." He finished his remarks, answered a few questions - then, in those days, it was still possible - and left the hall, back towards the bureau.
Another Netanyahu is marching, surrounded by a number of close advisers, caught up with the group Topaz Look, one of his young advisers who is especially close to Ben Yair, and handed the prime minister a cell phone. Netanyahu threw a look at Luke saying goodbye. He immediately realized who was on the other end of the line. Netanyahu took the device with a sealed face and pressed it to his ear. Shouts were heard from him. Netanyahu murmured in response a quick sentence here, a weak word there, but most of the time he listened. Sometimes he nodded. He finished the call, returned the cell phone to its owner, went into his office, walked over to the mahogany table, sat down in his armchair, looked at the head of the Horowitz staff and said, "Let everyone know that everything is canceled."
"What is canceled?" Horowitz asked in astonishment. "The outline of the infiltrators," Netanyahu replied. "I cancel it."
The next day he went to south Tel Aviv, for a summit meeting with Shefi Paz, a local activist for the expulsion of the infiltrators. She greeted him warmly and cordially, he greeted her selfies.
If so: the son reversed his father's decision in the blink of an eye, almost effortlessly.
While Netanyahu explained to the public his best considerations in signing an agreement with the UN, the result of weeks of effort, he monitored the social networks, the "right feed", and concluded within five minutes that the hard core of the base would not be satisfied with removing half of the asylum seekers. That everyone should be expelled, here and now. Yesterday, if possible. He picked up the phone to his father and washed it for no one who did not return a hair-raising war, but accepted the sentence in humility
. Not from outside, but from within. The political, charismatic, omnipotent magician in the eyes of quite a few people, as if kidnapped.
Life in denial
It's not a secret for a long time. All those close to the family are familiar with this reality. Everyone who fell into that disaster area, everyone who was inside the room, everyone who carried, to his disaster, one role or another in the eye of the storm. everyone knows. It has already been published here once about the wiretaps made at the time to Natan Eshel, with the opening of the investigation against Netanyahu. The main finding was the fact that most of the time and energy of Eshel, as well as the other senior members of the bureau, was invested in "calming down" the house. Sometimes even the "deception" resides in Balfour as to the actions and intentions of the man who claims to be a strong leader. Eshel, along with everyone who has ever been there, simply tried to protect Netanyahu and allow him a kind of maneuver, away from the eyes or attention of the real decision makers.
Now the truth is slowly creeping up on her from the dim corridors, swept away by screams, in the sunlight.
Hefetz's testimony sheds new light on Netanyahu's obsession with the "strong" image, an obsession he has worked on throughout his career.
The word "strong", in its various biases, is repeated as the second thread in all the political campaigns the man has run.
In all the pages of messages, in all the speeches, in all the images.
He is meticulous about her, mild as well as severe.
He knows why.
Of all of them, he knows his weakness best.
The closest.
New light on Netanyahu's obsession with the image of the 'strong', testimony of Hefetz (Photo: Reuven Castro)
He managed to create for himself an opposite image of his true personality. It penetrated the souls of quite a few Israelis. Some of them believe he is the strongest leader who has been here. Some of them believe that without him, Israel is lost. There is no way to convince them that this is fiction. Did he not point a finger at Hamas? It's too much power. Increased Hezbollah from 16,000 (the number of rockets after the Second Lebanon War) to 200,000 rockets? This is power. Sold the country to the "Haredi block"? Entrepreneur, pushed and passed the "outline of the Western Wall" in his government and one moment after that froze him because the ultra-Orthodox were angry? Lost governance in the south? And also in the north? Accept any "ceasefire" offer during "Strong Cliff"? Stormy applause.
These people live in denial. Either they will not believe things at all, or they will be quick to attribute them to someone else. Loss of governance? It's Bennett. Surrender to terrorism? It's a torch. Release of hundreds of murderers? This is Olmert. "Training" Mansour Abbas? It's Gantz. Abandonment of the Ministry of the Interior in the hands of a convicted criminal? This is Lieberman. Abandonment of the Ministry of Health by a Gur follower who devoted most of his time to protecting a pedophile? This is Rabin. Nothing else can be proved to them. In the Netanyahu era, the truth went bankrupt, a kiss died, a grave was buried, please refrain from condolence visits.
I know it's hard to believe, but some of the babysitters, and I'm not talking about singles, believe that Bibi and Sarah brought back the couple Natalie and the Oknin rebels from Turkey. Someone uploaded a photo montage to the networks in which the Netanyahu couple is seen greeting the Okinaans as they got off the plane at Ben Gurion Airport. The picture went viral. From the public.Yes, it's real.
Is it any wonder that the chains are full of pike according to which a 4000 bag has collapsed? People who seem seemingly serious explain how the "death clause" collapsed, how everything evaporated, how it was proven that there was no gift that Netanyahu received from Walla, it was all just in Mandelblit's dreams, in Liat Ben-Ari's hallucinations. Three days of testimony with countless examples of how the most popular and influential website in Israel was run in those days from Balfour, how "the Likud headquarters was active and edited Walla", how the entire site was fully mobilized for the Likud victory and how and how and how they are. "Everything collapsed."
The pike is based on a factual fraction, usually something esoteric, non-binding, a kind of noise with no specific gravity, and a tower is built on it. Want an example? The lie that Netanyahu did not prevent the transfer of the state budget as agreed in the coalition agreement with Ganz. "It's the fault of both parties," the bibists claim today. They are building on the fact that Avi Nissenkorn delayed the establishment of any committee that should have been established by virtue of the coalition agreement, in light of disputes between the parties concerning any logistics.
So here, Nissenkorn violated the coalition agreement!
So Bibi did not pass a budget.
The funniest thing, and also terrible, is that they believe in it.
Lucky that Yuval Steinitz, one of the last honest people left in the Likud, repeated this week that it was a fatal mistake not to pass the budget.
A mistake by Netanyahu, not by Ganz.
They hang on to the fact that at the end of the day the government fell on a vote to extend the deadline by a few days, even by votes (mostly abstention) some MKs brushed white. They forget it was already post-mortem. It was clear there was no budget. Anything that would allow him to turn the knife that stuck in Ganz's back. Luckily for him, he failed.
To drone world
There is also a relevant example: the bucket of sewage dumped on us all by Dudi Amsalem last week.
There are quite a few commentators who say that Amsalem's anger is justified (though the texts, no).
After all, the coalition "crushes" and also "tramples" the opposition when it comes to representation on committees, so Amsalem warmed up a bit.
His right.
Well, the truth is quite different. In every generation the coalition tramples on the opposition. This debate has been with us since the creation of man, more or less. If we break down the penny claim, we'll get to the Finance Committee. The quarrel is over the fact that the coalition demands a majority of 2 in the Finance Committee, instead of a majority of one MK, for the opposition demand. On the face of it, the opposition has a case, right? After all, the coalition majority is quite minimal (62-58, .So it's, not exactly. Let's skip for a moment to 2015. The majority of the coalition that year was even smaller. 61-59. In the Finance Committee it did have a majority of one MK. What was to prove? No. Because in the Knesset committee, a committee no less critical (sometimes more) than the Finance Committee, the coalition of 2015 arranged for itself a majority of 3 MKs (!!). No one in the opposition then dreamed of burning the club.
So my uncle Amsalem just got the jenna and got some nerves on us.
And he did not talk at all about imprisoning the leftists in the pens!
They did him a huge injustice.
He spoke of pens only for "predatory wolves," that is, for legal advisers and officials, all those who deprive the right of power.
Talked about pens only for "predatory wolves", Dudi Amsalem (Photo: official website, -)
Long live the little difference.
By the way, the weakened version of Amsalem's insults is more dangerous than the inflated version ("imprison the leftists") for a simple reason: although the left is not what it used to be, there are not enough pens here for all the leftists.
It is clear that this is an idle threat.
In contrast, there is enough space in corns for lawyers.
And according to what has happened here in recent years, nothing will surprise me if after the Likud returns to power, Amsalem will pass it with some thugs between the offices in Salah a-Din and load the guys into Zinzana.
The man's words were horrifying.
Dismiss all judges.
Delete the word 'justice'.
Cut half the salary of a clerk who will not obey.
Run over, smash and destroy.
Until this moment, none of the senior Likud members has condemned them.
Nobody tweeted.
Everyone looks in panic at the great generator of hatred and incitement, accused of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, and silent.
To drone world.
