The assassination of the Iranian nuclear projector, Muhsin Fahrizadeh, was supposed to significantly hurt the ayatollahs' nuclear program, or at least delay it.
Fahrizadeh was part of the nuclear program almost from the beginning, and later became its almighty director.
He was the kind of people who were said to have no substitute: like Qassem Suleimani in the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards, so he was a unique figure who concentrated knowledge and power, professionalism and passion.
This is also the reason why Israel decided to eliminate it (if you believe the Iranians and a variety of foreign publications).
It required extraordinary operational creativity;
Fahrizadeh - who over the years has lost quite a few of his friends and employees in the nuclear program, who was eliminated by unknown individuals - knew he was in the crosshairs and took care of his safety.
It was clear that assassination by the familiar method of a gunman or assassin attaching a charge to his car would not work.
To be successful, a particularly complex operation was required, which included exceptional intelligence, technological and operational capabilities.
The solution found looked like it had been taken from a James Bond movie: a robotic machine-gun specially designed for the operation was placed on the side of the road, and operated remotely when Fahrizadeh's vehicle arrived on the scene.
Fahrizadeh Funeral, Photo: IPI
A year later, it is worth wondering whether the successful elimination did indeed achieve its strategic goals.
Fahrizadeh was taken out of the game and has yet to find a successor in his stature, but the Iranians have since made significant progress in their nuclear program.
Anyone who expected the assassination to cause them second thoughts or demoralization, or at least delay the plan to some extent, was soon deceived.
It seems that the exact opposite is true.
Iran has been over-motivated as a result of the assassination.
Another incident contributed to this: the explosion at the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz.
Those who harmed it - through the explosion of the power system, which caused many of the centrifuges used to enrich uranium to collapse - believed it would take the Iranians many months, and perhaps even longer, until they repaired the damaged systems and returned to enriching uranium to the same extent.
In practice, the Iranians acted resolutely, removing the obsolete centrifuges and installing new and more advanced centrifuges in their place, and returning to enrichment - to a higher level than ever before.
As a result, Iran has come very close to the status of a nuclear threshold state.
She might have acted the same way had it not been for the elimination of Pharisees and the damage to the Natanz facility, but these events explicitly led her to pursue a more counter-policy than in the past.
The Americans also give a similar interpretation to these attacks that have been attributed to Israel;
Officials in Washington recently claimed that instead of keeping Iran away from the bomb, as hoped, they brought it closer to it.
Protesters in Tehran after the assassination of Fahrizadeh, Photo: Reuters
Time for conclusions
It is not certain that Israel draws the same conclusions from these events.
Prime Minister Bennett said on Tuesday that instead of fighting Iran and its envoys all over the world, it should be fought on its soil.
It is a threat intended primarily for deterrence, but stands the test of a perpetual act if you add to the multitude of operations attributed to the institution, the cyber-attacks and the repeated vulnerability of Iran's weapons transfers in space.
Even if these actions do continue in the future, it is not certain that they will keep Iran away from the bomb.
At present, it seems that the only way to do this - which is not a military attack - is actually political: through a new nuclear agreement, which will replace the agreement from which the United States withdrew in 2018, largely under Israeli pressure.
After a long period of procrastination, Iran has announced that it will return to nuclear talks next week.
Anyone who knows the Iranians knows that another long bazaar is expected before a new agreement is reached, if any.
Israel needs to turn worlds around in order to influence its content, and especially to ensure that it keeps Iran away from the nuclear program for as long as possible.
Until then (and even later) she should continue to hold a large stick in her hand, and through it threaten anyone who is toying with the doomsday weapon - whose personal doomsday may arrive earlier than expected.
Were we wrong?
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