Speaking of the "Northern Metropolis Development Strategy" (hereinafter referred to as the "Northern District Strategy"), Wang Jixian, research director of the Hong Kong Center of the Greater Bay Area, went back to the 1960s: the colonial government began planning new towns, and there are many factories near the northwestern New Territories.
The development of new towns such as Tuen Mun, Yuen Long and Tin Shui Wai is precisely to support these blue-collar families.
"The idea of balancing work and housing, reducing commuting, etc., are all intended to be realized in the three new towns." The story behind it is well known. With China’s reform and opening up, Hong Kong’s manufacturing industry went northward. "This place People in Hong Kong have to return to Kowloon and Hong Kong Island to find work."
At the same time, the area's transportation infrastructure is backward, and there is no railway connection to the urban area, and it has been isolated for a long time.
Tin Shui Wai, located in the northwest, has experienced tragic tragedies one after another, and is known as a "tragic city."
"The whole plan is completely frustrated, and the northern part of the New Territories has not achieved real development either." Wang Jixian concluded.
From this point of view, the SAR government issued the "North District Strategy" to regain the development of North New Territories, and transportation infrastructure and industrial planning will be the top priority.
Wang Jixian, born in Beijing, was hired as a faculty member in the Geography Department of the University of Hong Kong in 1993. He has a good knowledge of Hong Kong's geographic layout, urban planning and regional economic development, and is a leading expert.
Earlier, he had an exclusive dialogue with reporters from the "Hong Kong 01" in-depth report team to analyze the "dilemma" in the construction of the northern metropolis.
Although Wang Jixian, the research director of the Hong Kong Center in the Greater Bay Area, was born in Beijing, he has taught in Hong Kong for many years and has studied Hong Kong's urban planning and transportation planning.
(Provided by interviewee)
Transportation infrastructure: chicken first and egg first?
After the announcement of the "North District Strategy", many politicians have called for "infrastructure first" and the introduction of "railway competitors."
Wang Jixian provided scholars’ observations in addition to criticism: "The more you understand transportation, especially rail transit, the more you feel that rail transit construction is a dilemma."
The first is the "efficiency" of railway construction.
Wang Jixian started talking about "Tuen Yuan Tian" again. Today, the only rail transit West Rail Line (now merged into the Tuen Ma Line) that connects the urban area in the district has been stagnated for a time, about 20 years later than the railways in other places in Hong Kong. .
At that time, the Kowloon-Canton Railway Company and the Mass Transit Railway Company had not yet merged, but the two railway companies had always resisted the development of this section of the railway. On the one hand, because the initial construction cost of rail transit was very high, the "Tuen Yuan Tian" was far away from the urban area. "There are all mountains in the middle, and there are no stations." On the other hand, line cost control is closely related to the opening time. "After the railway has been in operation for 30 years, the maintenance cost will be greater than the initial investment." In new towns, the passenger flow is naturally hard to meet expectations.
Taking into account the cost of infrastructure and maintenance, the construction of the "West Rail" has turned into a "losing business."
The construction of the West Rail Line was stalled for a while, about 20 years later than the railways in other parts of Hong Kong.
(Photo by Chen Haoran)
Wang Jixian recalled that there were also disputes over the fare at the time. There were two main plans: one was to allow passengers on the "Tun Yuan Tian" to pay more fares. "But this district is dominated by public housing, all at the grassroots level. Will it be able to afford it?" The second is that railway companies "share the cost of this period across the entire network, and the price of the entire railway will increase, and the citizens are not willing to accept it."
In order to balance the contradiction between the efficiency of railway operation and the efficiency of urban development, Hong Kong has long adopted the development model of "property over the subway".
Wang Jixian pointed out that the "scientific name" of this model is transit oriented development (TOD).
In 2019, the World Bank published a related research report, ranking 14 cities in the world that use the TOD model, and Hong Kong ranked third, and the MTR Corporation’s "Subway Superstructure" model was also rated as a "very innovative railway". Corporate financing methods".
Source: MTR Corporation Annual Report 2021 (Hong Kong 01 drawing)
"Subway superstructure" not only creates passenger flow for the MTR Corporation, but also reduces the pressure on infrastructure costs, but also brings wealth.
With most railway companies in the world losing money, MTR has almost recorded profits of more than 10 billion Hong Kong dollars in the past ten years (above), so it is called "the most profitable railway company in the world."
As a result, revenue has become the driving force for railway companies to expand their networks, which in turn increases efficiency.
"If public transportation does not have a certain degree of monopoly, there may be even less incentives to do it, because the cost is relatively high." Wang Jixian analyzed the necessity of the merger of the two railways and the monopoly of the MTR. "Otherwise, the railway enterprises will continue to delay. If you drag it to the population and then go in, you will lose a little less. But it is not good for the development of the region, because one of the "chicken" and the "egg" must go first."
Wang Jixian pointed out that if public transportation does not have a certain degree of monopoly, there may be no incentive to build a railway. The picture shows the Yuen Long Station on the West Rail Line.
(Photo by Chen Yongwu)
Therefore, Wang Jixian believes that if an external railway operating line is introduced to compete with the MTR, even if a competitor wins the bid, it will "definitely lose money." Because the railway must form a network and dispatch vehicles to reduce costs and efficiency, the Northern Link will introduce competition. Unrealistic".
But he also pointed out that the Hung Shui Qiao-Qianhai line can try to introduce competition to reduce costs. If the line can connect to the airport, it should be profitable.
However, Wang Jixian's deductions are all based on "profitability" and did not talk about the public service functions of the MTR Corporation.
If the MTR has "profits at the forefront" in everything, wouldn't it ignore the "public interest"?
Faced with doubts, Wang Jixian responded: "In terms of system and technology, you can make a fuss." In terms of system, because the SAR government is the largest shareholder of the MTR Corporation, and the current political environment is "realistic", "it doesn't seem to be true." To solve housing and people’s livelihood issues, Liante’s capital cannot be used."
Then, the government can naturally ask the MTR Corporation to "obey the overall situation" and complete the railway project in the northern metropolitan area as soon as possible. "I have a positive view on this."
In terms of technology, Wang Jixian pointed out, “Now it’s not a situation where it’s not a subway or a bus. Some transportation tools between the two can be established.” For example, the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) is a combination. In addition to the capacity and speed of the subway and the low cost of the bus system, it is also called "the subway on the ground."
Wang Jixian gave an example of designing ground platforms near the proposed subway station and dedicated bus lanes on the road surface, "similar to light rail, but without tracks." At the same time, it is possible to use underground magnetic tracks to facilitate the conversion to permanent rail transit in the future. "It can be used as a transitional plan, waiting for the population to come up first, it is environmentally friendly, and it can balance efficiency and speed."
"Tokyo BRT" opened to traffic in 2020. In order to solve the traffic problems during the Olympics, the Japanese government planned a dedicated BRT lane for vehicles to connect between the athletes' village and various venues.
(Source: Internet)
Industrial Planning: Is it good to be wide and narrow?
In addition to transportation infrastructure, the issue of "separation of work and residence" among residents of the New Territories also requires attention.
Instead, the industry planned by the North District Strategy for New Territories North is the "Innovation and Technology Industry". The blueprint described in the report is "A metropolis that is livable, suitable for business and travel, and uses innovation and technology as the economic engine." Hong Kong will form a pattern of "Southern Finance and North Innovation".
However, Wang Jixian criticized the development of innovation and technology in Hong Kong as "paradoxical." In the report of the SAR government, "every new development area must develop innovation and technology." However, "what is innovation and technology? How to define innovation and technology? What Hong Kong wants to develop Is it "Technology" or "Technology"?" Wang Jixian threw a series of question marks, "This question is very complicated, and no one can answer it clearly now."
Wang Jixian criticized Hong Kong's "innovation and technology" concept as specious. The picture shows the Hong Kong Science Park.
(Photo by Liang Pengwei)
First of all, "Innovation and Technology" has hidden many complicated classifications.
Wang Jixian explained that there are many stages of innovation and technology, involving different industries, from "zero to one" from scientific theory to application, "from one to ten" from application to commercialization, and "from one to ten" from commercialization to mass production and promotion. Ten to one hundred".
Although Hong Kong is currently shouting the slogan "International Innovation and Technology Center", its future positioning is still unclear-whether it should take advantage of its advantages and focus on innovation in the upstream of the technology industry chain, or hope to make up for the shortcomings of downstream technology applications and promote " Re-industrialization" to create a complete industrial chain?
At the same time, this also involves the "broadness and narrowness" of industrial policies.
Wang Jixian pointed out that if he wants to support industries in the region, he must use supporting policies and provide "specific discounts."
The narrower the scope of the policy, the stronger the purpose. "In order to create a certain area, such as a biotechnology park, only relevant companies can enter to get preferential treatment."
Conversely, the wider the scope, the more industries the park can accommodate, but at the same time the industries are also scattered.
"Who decides what industries should be in this area? Is the government so smart? The government has the power to do this, but should it be done?" Wang Jixian raised several questions one after another, "The government is in a dilemma in this regard. If it is too focused, the government may be questioned about "manipulating the market." If it is not focused, the development of the entire region will be "unclear."
On April 27, 2020, the DSE Diploma Examination Liberal Studies subject was closed due to the epidemic.
(Profile picture / Photo by Liang Pengwei)
In addition, there is also the issue of talents.
"What do Hong Kong people want to do? Have you figured it out clearly?" Wang Jixian said, Hong Kong's aging problem is becoming more and more serious, the number of young people is declining, and the tide of killing schools in primary and secondary schools is also rampant.
He calculated the accounts. The northern metropolitan area expects to become 2.5 million people by 2048. Today, the difference is about 1.5 million. Assuming that half of the employed population is local youth, there are 800,000 people. "What do they want to study at university? Will you end up working in the northern metropolitan area?"
Wang Jixian lamented that if young people still rush into the financial and business sector, they will not come to the northern metropolitan area, because the geographical feature of the financial industry is "high proximity", which is why most financial institutions are concentrated in Central. .
At the same time, because young people in Hong Kong are unwilling to leave Hong Kong for employment, if they cannot enter the extremely high-end financial industry, they would rather go to the low-end service industry.
"Employment has never been a problem in Hong Kong. The question is "what kind of industry?" Wang said. The key to success in the northern metropolis lies in providing these young people, especially those with expertise in engineering, biology, and technology. , To provide a "fate" in addition to the low-end service industry.
Wang Jixian concluded that it is not easy for the northern metropolitan area to cultivate innovation and technology industries and build a New Economic Industrial Cluster. It must be systematically considered from many aspects such as talent training, regional planning, and industrial supporting policies.
