In the "Hong Kong Monthly Bulletin of Statistics" published by the Census and Statistics Department in mid-month, one of the articles explored "the trend of deaths in Hong Kong from 1986 to 2020", showing that the death toll last year "over 5" reached 50,666 for the first time.
However, the Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi Kwong Jin (28th) explained in his blog that from 2010 to 2020, the mortality rate of different ages has actually continued to decline. The age-related mortality rate at the time remains unchanged, their average life expectancy is actually about 86.52 years, and when he checked the "Population Life Table" of the Census and Statistics Department, he calculated that their chance of living to be 100 years or older was about 12%, and the chances were not counted. It’s too small, and in 2015, the Census and Statistics Department estimated that the population over a hundred years old will increase to 40,610 by 2055: "Now you have to be more careful if you wish people a long life to be a hundred years old."
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According to statistics from the Hong Kong Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, the Census and Statistics Department, the average life expectancy of boys born last year is 82.9 years, but Luo Zhiguang stated in his blog that if the mortality rate is taken into account, the average life expectancy of these boys can be close to 100 years. , I believe that by 2090, the chances of this class of "post-20s" retiring at the age of 70 should be very low, which means that they will have to work for half a century on average.
Census and Statistics Department: The average life expectancy of men is 82.9 years.
Luo Zhiguang said that if calculated by the mortality rate of each age in 2020, the average life expectancy of a baby boy born in 2020 is 82.9 years old, but from the perspective of the trend of the mortality rate in Hong Kong in the past, this "expectation" is quite good. It must be a very underestimation of the average life expectancy of these boys in the future.
He explained that the above calculation is the result of "calculation based on the mortality rate of each age in 2020", but the mortality rate of a boy born in 2020 is likely to be higher than the mortality rate of the same age in 2020 after many years. Low.
A 65-year-old man has a 12% chance of surviving his 100th birthday
Luo also pointed out that if the future annual mortality rate of a 65-year-old man in 2020 and the related age-related mortality rate in 2020 remain unchanged, the average life expectancy will be 21.52 years, which is about 86.52 years old. If you look at the Census and Statistics Department's " The "life table" may calculate that his chance of living to be 100 years old or above is about 12%, or about one-eighth, and the chance is not too small.
Call on a man to help his wife buy a public annuity
Therefore, he believes that the future direction of education should be reviewed. At the same time, he estimated that the average life expectancy of men who were 65 years old last year will exceed 90 years. If they only buy an annuity that expires at the age of 90, they will have more than half of the chance of being in After the age of 90, living expenses are unsustainable. For this reason, he recommends that citizens buy life-long public annuities.
When you are 65, you will buy 500,000 for yourself and your spouse each
Luo Zhiguang emphasized that his calculation by men is only simple in terms of statistics, but the fact is that the average life expectancy of women is 5 years longer than that of men.
Therefore, he suggested that if men’s wives do not have a pension or MPF, they should buy an extra annuity for them. Suppose a man buys a public annuity of 500,000 for himself and his spouse of the same age when he is 65 years old. A total of 66,600 yuan has been received, and a total of 1,665,000 yuan has been received by the age of 90, and a total of 2,331,0003 yuan will have been received by the age of 100. Even if it is one-eighth chance, people who are over a hundred years old can continue to receive it.
On the one hand, the arrangement will protect them from the additional financial risks brought about by living longer than you, and also allow them to have a stable income every month, and the families of the two elders will be more harmonious.
Elderly industry says poor elders cannot afford to buy annuities: Hong Kong’s longevity may not be a blessing
Some elderly people believe that purchasing annuities is only helpful to the elderly with relatively high financial means. However, the truth is that many elderly people in Hong Kong are grassroots or even poor and cannot afford to buy annuities. The lack of residential places is even more a problem in local elderly services. For a long time, more than 7,000 people died during the waiting list last year: "I agree with Qu (Luo Zhiguang) to be careful when wishing people a long life, because longevity in Hong Kong may not be a blessing."
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