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Without agreeing on what is even being talked about, the nuclear talks in Vienna resume with low expectations
The United States and Europe want to continue negotiations from where they left off in June, and Iran insist on discussing the removal of sanctions first.
Despite the fear that this is a waste of time, the lack of a real military option leaves the West - and Israel - with only poor options, at least until the new Raisi administration is clarified.
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United States
Iran
Nuclear Agreement
Guy Elster
Monday, 29 November 2021, 07:30 Updated: 07:39
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In the video: Bennett refers to the resumption of nuclear talks with Iran (Photo: Roni Kanfo) Follow @@ guyelster
Nuclear talks will resume today (Monday) in Vienna after a six-month hiatus, but in a pessimistic mood in light of the large gaps between the United States and Iran, even around their definition. While in Tehran they are being defined as talks designed to remove the US sanctions imposed on it since Washington withdrew from the 2018 nuclear deal. On the other hand, the Biden administration is beginning to question the ability of the nuclear deal signed in 2015 to halt the great progress that Iran has made in recent years, and wonders how serious it is at all in the negotiations.
Even before the start of negotiations, which was halted for about six months following the Iranian presidential election in June, Tehran set a series of excessive demands as a condition for returning to compliance with the terms of the agreement. Among other things, Iran insists on the removal of sanctions imposed by the United States and Western countries since 2017, including those unrelated to the nuclear program, as well as a commitment - unrealistic - that a future administration in Washington will not be able to withdraw from the agreement again. The West, on the other hand, wants to continue the talks from the point where they were stopped.
"There is really no resumption of talks, because there is no indication of Iran's willingness to return to the nuclear deal," he told Walla!
Dr. Raz Zimet, an Iranian expert at the Institute for National Security Studies. To move towards a nuclear threshold capability. "
The probing phase begins.
Iranian President Raisi in Majles, this month (Photo: AP)
The options facing the United States, Britain, Germany and France - the Western powers that signed the agreement - in case of procrastination in talks or their collapse are all bad. On the diplomatic level, China and Russia, two additional partnership agreement signed in 2015, are expected to block any attempt to punish Iran in the UN Security Council. Representatives are designed today with Iranian representatives in Vienna, it is possible to coordinate positions with the West.
The United States and Europe threaten to transfer decision Condemnation against Iran in the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in case of failure of negotiations, but it is doubtful whether such a move will persuade Tehran to soften its positions. On the contrary, the faint cooperation that still remains between it and the UN inspectors may completely dissipate.
The IAEA has lost access to a center for assembling centrifuges in Karaj since it was hit by a sabotage operation attributed to Israel in June. The effectiveness of Israel's covert campaign against Iran's nuclear program.
The administration has softened its demand to expand the agreement.
Biden (Photo: Reuters)
In the absence of a genuine US military option, despite vague statements by senior Biden administration officials that "all options are on the table" if diplomacy is considered, Washington has already begun to consider the possibility of an interim agreement. Iran, at this stage, opposes this and focuses primarily on the issue of sanctions that stifle the country's economy, but do not overthrow the regime as the initiators of the nuclear deal, former US President Donald Trump and former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu predicted.
The opposite is probably true. The nuclear deal, backed by more moderate elements in the Islamic Republic, has forced Iran to try and sell the West a more moderate image in some respects. But from the moment Trump unilaterally abandoned the 2018 agreement, the moderates, led by former President Hassan Rouhani, have lost their influence and been taken by extremists, in the form of new President Ibrahim Raisi.
The limited space that the moderate voices still had was crushed, and the regime has no hesitation in coming to suppress any protest against it with the required violence.
He knows that Western countries will not stop talks with him because of this, and only at the weekend were farmers' demonstrations forcibly dispersed in Isfahan in protest of the water crisis.
opinion
The US pursuit of a nuclear deal with Iran
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The concern in Israel
Israel does not have many choices left. Although the defense establishment is leaking feverish preparations for the possibility of an attack on Iran, a complex operation with many risks like this cannot be launched without the approval of the United States, or at least a blindfold. Damage to Iran's nuclear program is not the same as the destruction of the miners in Iraq and Syria, and the vast knowledge it has gained in any case will not be eliminated by means of bunker-penetrating bombs.
With the exception of such and other sabotage operations aimed at delaying the nuclear program, Israel will be content mainly with exerting pressure on the United States and Europe to harden positions vis-à-vis Iran.
"Israel is very concerned about the willingness to remove the sanctions, it is a message that we are conveying in every way to both the Americans and the other countries," Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said this morning ahead of Foreign Minister Yair Lapid's visits to Britain and France this week. "The foreign minister will send the same message in London and Paris this week. It is very important that the government speaks with one voice on matters concerning national security."
The IAEA warns that they are about to become "blind" in Iran. The agency's chairman visited Tehran last week (Photo: Reuters)
From Iran's recent statements and moves, it appears to be coming confidently into the upcoming round of talks.
US President Joe Biden, who promised to demand a firmer and broader agreement upon taking office almost a year ago, is only compromising on a return to the original agreement, which will expire in five years anyway.
The continuing devaluation of the global and regional status of the United States, which stems mainly from the internal battle waged over its identity and image and its recent moves in the region such as the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, strengthens its rivals.
The two main ones - China and Russia - are helping Iran float above water and survive economic sanctions.
"I do not estimate that we will see an Iranian flexibility during the next round, which is mainly intended to present the positions of the new administration," Dr. Zimt said. "If there is flexibility, it will only come after the current round.
Iran sees the main target in lifting sanctions, and the composition of the Iranian delegation also indicates that they do not intend to discuss nuclear progress but on ways to lift sanctions.
This of course does not bode well for the chances to achieve significant progress in Vienna. "
Despite the panic in Israel, the day that Iran could launch an operational missile with a nuclear warhead - if you decide to go this route - not close. While the amount of enriched uranium close to that required for the development Bomb Nuclear, four to six weeks away, it is estimated, but it will take at least another two years to acquire the technology needed to assemble a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile.
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