An international research team led by He Guojun, associate professor of economics and management and business strategy at the School of Economics and Management of the University of Hong Kong, quantified the impact of China’s strict anti-epidemic policy (ie, the “blockade policy”) on the mortality rate of “non-new crown”, referring to China’s strict Anti-epidemic measures have reduced the number of "non-new crown" deaths by 4.6%.
During the first 50 days of the strict "blockade", 54,000 deaths from other causes were avoided.
In the 115 days after the "blockade" measures were lifted, non-new crown deaths fell by 12.5%, avoiding 293,000 deaths.
The research has been published in the authoritative scientific journal "Nature-Human Behavior".
A study by the University of Hong Kong pointed out that China's strict anti-epidemic measures have reduced the number of "non-new crown" deaths by 4.6%.
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He Guojun believes that there has been controversy over whether to implement blockade measures against the new crown epidemic.
On the one hand, many people believe that the blockade may cause great health damage to normal people. For example, restrictions on population mobility reduce people’s access to medical services, and restrictions on business and production may lead to economic chaos and large-scale layoffs. The situation may lead to a higher non-new crown mortality rate.
But on the other hand, virus blockade policies may also bring unexpected health benefits, because they encourage people to protect their health, such as wearing masks, washing hands frequently, etc., to reduce risks related to production activities in the short term, including improving air quality and reducing Work and traffic accidents, and reduce the spread of other infectious diseases, just like seasonal flu.
He believes that whether the blockade measures bring additional health benefits or losses requires further empirical research.
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The research team used death registration data covering a quarter of the Chinese population to compare the non-new crown mortality rates of cities with and without lockdown measures before, during and after the lockdown.
It was found that China's strict anti-epidemic measures have reduced the number of non-new crown deaths by 4.6%.
During the first 50 days of the strict "blockade", 54,000 deaths from other causes were avoided.
Surprisingly, health benefits continued to grow after the lockdown policy was relaxed.
Within 115 days after the "blockade" measures were lifted, non-new crown deaths fell by 12.5%, avoiding 293,000 deaths.
The team found that reduced traffic and industrial activities have reduced air pollution, and deaths from cardiovascular diseases have also fallen sharply.
The areas that were initially heavily polluted have seen the greatest improvement, which shows that better air quality is essential to prevent premature deaths.
At the same time, changes in behaviors such as maintaining social distancing, washing hands frequently, disinfecting and wearing masks have significantly reduced deaths caused by other infectious diseases.
He Guojun said that the study pointed out how to further improve public health after the blockade measures are lifted.
If the government can continue its efforts to control pollution and the public is willing to maintain good personal hygiene, these short-term benefits can become long-term.
This research was conducted in collaboration with scholars from multiple institutions.
In addition to the University of Hong Kong, members of the research team also include institutions from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and Peking University.
Among them, Dr. He Guojun of the University of Hong Kong and Academician Gao Fu of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and Researcher Zhou Maigeng are the co-corresponding authors of the study; Associate Researcher Qi Jinlei of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and Professor Zhang Dandan of Peking University are the joint authors of the study. One author.
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