"Éric Zemmour, an objective ally of Marine Le Pen?"

Antoine Bristielle is director of the Observatory of Opinion of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, associate professor of social sciences, and researcher in political science at Sciences Po Grenoble.

For many, Eric Zemmour's candidacy for the presidential election is bad news for Marine Le Pen, the historic candidate for the far right. The dynamic of Eric Zemmour in the voting intentions has indeed largely been achieved so far to the detriment of the candidate of the National Rally. Marine Le Pen thus went from 25% of voting intentions at the end of June, to 17% at the end of October [1], which could even suggest a lack of qualification for the second round. However, when we take a step back on this candidacy, and remember that the French presidential election is not played in one round but in two, we realize quite quickly that it could constitute excellent news. for Marine Le Pen for three main reasons.

A mirrored demonization

The main obstacle to the Le Pen family's march towards the Elysee Palace has always been their demonization within public opinion and the resulting Republican front.

During the second rounds of the presidential elections it was common for the voters of the eliminated candidates to refer to the candidate facing Marine or Jean-Marie Le Pen.

Having well understood the risks of this marginalization within the political space, Marine Le Pen had since his arrival at the head of the movement a rather successful strategy of demonization.

Last April, we showed that the extreme right wing of Marine Le Pen had never been so demonized in public opinion.

In a political landscape where Eric Zemmour is the major concern of a substantial part of the population, there is every reason to think that blocking Marine Le Pen will be much less obvious for many French people if she qualifies for the second tower.

Antoine Bristielle

However, the presence of Eric Zemmour, a candidate with an even more radical positioning, accustomed to controversial outings, whether on Pétain, women or immigrants further reinforces the impression that Marine Le Pen is, after all, a candidate " normal ”.

In its last survey carried out after Eric Zemmour's strong breakthrough, the Odoxa institute showed that only 55% of French people found Marine Le Pen aggressive and 54% found her demagogue, ie respective drops of 18 and 8 points [ 2].

In a political landscape where Eric Zemmour is the major concern of a substantial part of the population, there is every reason to think that blocking Marine Le Pen will be much less obvious for many French people if she qualifies for the second tower.

Broadening the spectrum of the far right

It is also wrong to believe that politics is only a matter of mathematics and that if, in a given political space, one candidate rises, the other automatically descends. Campaign dynamics can very well help to broaden political families by rallying non-voters or voters from other sides. At the end of June, the far-right political space, made up of the candidacies of Marine Le Pen, Florian Philippot and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan was measured at 31% in voting intentions. At the end of November, Eric Zemmour's candidacy had increased this space by 4 points to reach 35%! If Marine Le Pen succeeds in joining the second round of the presidential election, the reserves of votes she will have for the second round will be more substantial than they have ever been.

Put Marine Le Pen's themes on the agenda

Finally, it is commonly accepted in political science that voters make their voting choices based on the few issues they deem the most important. Through a media-political agenda effect, the more a subject is put forward by politicians and by the media, the more it will be considered important in the eyes of voters. However, the polemicist's ambition is clear: to put migration and security issues at the center of the debate. And it is clear that this strategy is a complete success. These questions focused media attention for many weeks. As for the primary of the Republicans it was made with great outbidings on the part of the various contenders, fearing to appear too "soft" and to be overtaken on their right by Eric Zemmour.It should nevertheless be remembered that half of the second Republicans' debate was focused on migration and security issues, when themes such as ecology, for example, were completely obscured.

Concern about his qualification for the second round, but net strengthening of his position in this hypothetical second round, it is the paradox that the candidacy of Eric Zemmour poses over Marine Le Pen.

Antoine Bristielle

However, Marine Le Pen is never as strong as when the campaign takes place on these issues, insofar as it is specifically on these themes that she is considered more competent than the other candidates by the French. On the issue of immigration, 51% of French people consider that she would do better than the current president, against 21% who think she would do less well, i.e. a positive differential of 30 points in favor of the candidate of the National Rally . On the issue of safety, this differential is of the same order - 26 points - still in favor of Marine Le Pen [3]. By succeeding in putting these themes on the agenda and by pushing the other right-wing candidates to do the same,Eric Zemmour thus clearly contributed to the campaign being played on Marine Le Pen's favorite field.

Marine Le Pen has lowered the voting intentions for the first round of the presidential election, but the opposite is true for the second round. If, of course, she manages to qualify in the second round, the margin that separates her from Emmanuel Macron seems smaller than ever. At the end of June, the ELABE polling institute thus measured Marine Le Pen at 40% and Emmanuel Macron at 60%. Today the gap has been reduced by half, with 55% of the voting intentions for the outgoing president against 45% for the candidate of the National Rally [4]. Concern about his qualification for the second round, but net strengthening of his position in this hypothetical second round, it is the paradox that the candidacy of Eric Zemmour poses over Marine Le Pen.

[1] Voting intentions measured by the ELABE institute

[2] http://www.odoxa.fr/sondage/face-a-marine-le-pen-eric-zemmour-ne-fait-pas-le-poids/

[3] https://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/mlp.pdf

[4] Voting intentions measured by the ELABE institute