Chinese submarine in Taiwan Strait shows incident risks

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(CNN) -

The unexpected appearance of a suspected Chinese submarine in the Taiwan Strait this week highlighted the dangers posed by the frequent presence of military vessels in this narrow waterway, which analysts warn could trigger a non-conflict. wanted.

On Monday, on the Covert Shores blog, submarine expert HI Sutton identified the vessel as a Chinese Type 94 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine in a photo from the European open source satellite imagery service Sentinel-2.

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The submarine was reportedly seen sailing above the surface of the waters separating Taiwan from mainland China, where many analysts say the conflict is more likely to start from an accidental collision than from a planned event, and the more warships there are. a confined space, the more likely accidents are to occur.

An image from European satellite imaging company Sentinel 2 shows what analyst HI Sutton says is a Chinese submarine in the lower left.

The reason for its alleged presence in the strait is unknown, but Sutton said the Chinese submarine - also known as the SSBN or boomer - was likely on a routine mission, possibly heading to a port of the People's Liberation Army Navy ( EPL) in the Bohai Sea for repair or maintenance.

The presence of the Chinese submarine off Taiwan is "disconcerting"

But other experts who saw the satellite image said the alleged presence of a submarine on the surface was puzzling.

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"An SSBN on the surface is unheard of," said Carl Schuster, a former US Navy captain and former director of operations for the Pacific Command Joint Intelligence Center.

"This may suggest a hull or engineering problem that requires a major shipyard to investigate and fix."

BREAKING, new #OSINT, Chinese Navy (PLAN) missile submarine in Taiwan Strait, see https://t.co/jd84G5TT24 pic.twitter.com/AKDHtdDUfJ

- HI Sutton (@CovertShores) November 29, 2021

The Taiwan Strait is only 110 miles (180 kilometers) wide at its narrowest point.

It became one of the world's military hot spots as China puts increasing pressure on Taiwan, which Chinese President Xi Jinping has promised to bring under Beijing's control.

In response, supporters of the Taipei government, including the United States, have increased their military presence in the region.

This week, the commander of the US Navy's Seventh Fleet, based in Japan, said more carriers are needed from the US and its partners in the western Pacific.

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Vice Admiral Karl Thomas, speaking aboard the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson following large-scale naval exercises involving the United States, Japan, Australia, Canada and Germany, said the carriers are a great deterrent statement.

"When we think about how we might fight, ... four carriers is a good number, but six, seven or eight would be better," Thomas said, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

More than submarines

Meanwhile, China - which already has the world's largest navy by number of ships - continues to produce new warships.

In November, its fourth Type 55 destroyer, the Anshan, joined the People's Liberation Army (PLAN) Navy fleet with a fifth expected to do so by the end of the year, Naval News reported.

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The Type 55s are considered one of the most modern and powerful surface combat ships in the world.

And with more ships, there is a greater chance of a mishap, as the US Congressional Investigative Service wrote last year in a report on the South and East China Seas.

The intensification of operations by US and Chinese military aircraft and vessels in the South China Sea "could increase the risk of a miscalculation or inadvertent action that could cause an accident or lead to an incident that in turn could escalate. to a crisis or conflict, "the report said.

And in 2018, that's almost what happened when a Chinese destroyer sailed dangerously close to a US guided missile destroyer in the South China Sea - in what the US Navy described as an "aggressive maneuver."

The two ships came within 45 yards (41 meters) of each other, according to reports from the US Navy.

But Taiwan and its supporters are not standing still.

Taipei began construction last month on the first of eight planned in-house submarines.

Australia, which supports Taiwan and criticizes Beijing's mounting military pressure in the region, said earlier this year that it plans to build a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines.

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In October, Japan launched the second ship in its new class of diesel-electric submarines.

The first of the Taigei class is expected to enter service in March.

The potential for collisions at sea was revealed in October, when a US Navy submarine, the USS Connecticut, collided with what the US Pacific Fleet said was a seamount in the South China Sea.

The Connecticut, a nuclear-powered fast-attack submarine, limped back to the surface at the US naval base on the Pacific island of Guam after that incident.

And in 2017, a series of accidents by the US Navy in Asia raised similar concerns.

Although there has been no indication that the alleged Chinese submarine sighted Monday was in an accident, "it is an interesting mystery," said Schuster, who also noted that the PLA may have simply been showing its strength in the strait, as they have recently made the United States and its associated navies.

CNN contacted the Chinese Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for their comments.

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