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Saudi Arabia Still Dreaming of a Decision in Yemen | Israel today

2021-12-03T10:13:39.073Z


The brutal civil war has been raging for seven years and has claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands.


Recently, fierce fighting has been going on in the vicinity of one of the key strongholds in the war in Yemen that has been going on for about seven years and has led to a catastrophe of tens of thousands of hungry children, countless displaced people and hundreds of thousands of dead.

During the years of fighting, thousands of fighters were killed in the city and many of its residents were forced to flee to camps in the desert.

The city is located in an oil-rich province in northern Yemen, just 120 kilometers east of Sanaa, the Houthi stronghold.

These facts made it a strategic target of the pro-Saudi government in the south and of the pro-Iranian Houthi government in the north.

Anyone who thought in September that negotiations between senior Saudi and Iranian officials in Baghdad would bear fruit over the war in Yemen was forced to retaliate this week in the face of a widespread attack on Sanaa, during which Iranian elements were harmed, according to Riyadh.

The optimism in Tehran, which sometimes bordered on the exultation of its name as in the words of Admiral Ali Fadawi on "those who started the war in Yemen and are now begging to be saved," has been replaced by more pessimistic messages.

For example, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Khatib Zada ​​said in a tone of disappointment that a fifth round of talks between the parties depended on Saudi Arabia showing "more seriousness" and that Riyadh should understand that the logic of the siege of the Houthis and the pressure on Lebanon will not work. .

It seems that despite the entanglement in Yemen, Saudi Arabia still holds the desire to reunite the divided country.

First of all, because the establishment of a Houthi state would constitute an unprecedented achievement of Iran.

Second, because such a reality would have strategic implications for the national security of the kingdom.

Damage to a Saudi bomb in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, Photo: API

It is not for nothing that Saudi Arabia is disturbed by the "pro-Iranian base" from which its oil facilities can be attacked with the help of trapped UAVs. Beyond that, the personal prestige of Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, who from the beginning led the Saudi coalition's entry into the war to repel the Houthis, who took control of Sanaa in 2015, and restore previous rule, is at stake.

It should also be noted that behind the war was also Ben Salman's desire to shape his image as a regional security leader.

Perhaps this is why the crisis in Yemen has become a sensitive issue for Saudi Arabia - a kind of elephant in a room that should not be talked about - one that should be treated with silk gloves.

An expression of this could only be seen recently, when following a rather anemic criticism of the Lebanese Minister of Information about the war a diplomatic crisis erupted with Riyadh dragging with it the rest of the Gulf states.

The frustration of the palace grew over the years even in the face of the abandonment of its allies.

The UAE withdrew from the war in 2019 and in the US, the change of government led to a new and more inclusive attitude towards the Houthis who are no longer defined as a terrorist organization.

Members of the Houthi militia in Yemen, Photo: API

Another reason for Saudi Arabia's cold feet from the talks in Baghdad has to do with Iran's aggressive conduct.

Former Saudi Foreign Ministry spokesman Salem al-Yami explained in an interview with Al-Jazeera that Riyadh is no longer enthusiastic about concluding negotiations with Iran because of several statements by officials in Tehran and its operations in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. Attempted assassination of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Kajimi, an action attributed to pro-Iranian militias, al-Yami noted in this context that Iran is in fact looking for any way to break its regional and inter-Arab isolation.

In addition, a report published in The Economist estimated that Iran has little to help Saudi Arabia with the crisis in Yemen, as it has no complete control over the Houthis, and the Arab kingdom has nothing to offer it. However, Yemeni commentators disagree on whether Iranian influence The Houthis are limited or Tehran is able to put pressure on them by cutting off the supply of weapons.

In the wake of the report in The Economist that also estimated that Saudi Arabia had spent billions of dollars on the war, Yemeni commentator 'Abd a-Nasser al-Moda recently told the American network Al-Hura that Saudi Arabia does not currently have a clear strategic solution to end the crisis, but It also has no choice but to continue fighting, claiming that while the kingdom failed to achieve its goals in the war, a withdrawal meant that the southern neighbor would be handed over to the Houthis and Iran - which would be considered a security and political disaster for it. 

Another Yemeni commentator, 'Abd a-Satar Saif, told the American network that Saudi Arabia considers the war a fate, as it believes the goal behind it is the spread of Iran.

He said Saudi Arabia was looking for a starting point that would provide it with protection from Iranian ambitions.

He explained that the failure of the negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran stems in part from the uncompromisingness of the Houthis, who believe they can rake in achievements on the ground in battles, especially if they take over oil-rich cities like ambush.

Commentator Saif added that Saudi Arabia, for its part, is no longer completely opposed to the idea that the Houthis will control parts of Yemen, as this has become a fait accompli, but it wants to prevent their spread and ensure the protection of its borders.

He noted that the Saudi initiative in March contained indications of this such as the opening of airlines and a nationwide ceasefire, but the Houthis demanded the complete lifting of the siege.

On the other hand, it is also possible that the same initiative was a Saudi attempt to anesthetize the West and gain some international legitimacy for the fighting that met with harsh criticism.

One way or another, it seems that both Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are hoping to gain momentum in battles in the hope that the other side's forces will collapse completely.

This way no compromises will be needed.

But so far no tie-breaker has been observed, and the fighting is expected to continue without a vision for any solution.

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Source: israelhayom

All news articles on 2021-12-03

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