By Lori Hinnant and Maria Cheng -
The Associated Press
The global initiative to share coronavirus vaccines has already failed to deliver on its first promise to the poor.
Now, to meet even that commitment that they had to limit, COVAX would have to deliver more than a million doses every hour until the end of the year in some of the most disadvantaged places in the world.
That's unlikely to happen: Gavi, the alliance that helps manage COVAX, warned in internal documents that a substantial number of doses might not arrive until the end of 2022 or even 2023, as
rich countries delay their donations while securing contracts for new vaccines
by the hundreds of millions.
Even if the United Nations (UN) -informed initiative succeeds in getting doses and overcomes logistical hurdles, developing countries will still be in dire need of vaccines.
COVAX's new promise is 1.4 billion doses, but
low- and middle-income countries reportedly need 4.65 billion to vaccinate 70% of their population.
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And that demand is expected to increase, as many countries seek boosters and improved vaccines to cope with the new variants.
Today, more than half of the world's population has received at least one dose, but
only 6% of the population in the poorest countries have been immunized
.
Meanwhile, the wealthiest continue to buy third and fourth doses for their citizens.
[How effective are COVID-19 vaccines against the new omicron variant?]
Shortly after COVID-19 became a pandemic, COVAX was formed with the intention of ensuring that low- and middle-income nations quickly obtain vaccines without having to compete with powers that could out-supply or find themselves at the mercy. unreliable donations.
Getting the doses to reach all corners of the world is especially important because, according to experts, until immunization is fully spread, everyone will continue to be at risk.
A woman receives a dose of the Moderna vaccine against COVID-19 at Saint Damien Hospital in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on Tuesday, July 27, 2021. Joseph Odelyn / AP
But COVAX was short of money during the crucial months in which the United States, the countries of Europe and other wealthy nations finalized the contracts.
The first delivery arrived on February 24, in Ghana, more than two months after immunizations began in Britain and the United States.
Poor countries fell further and further behind, and COVAX took another hit in March, when the Serum Institute of India, which would be its main supplier, halted exports to increase supplies of domestic vaccines amid a massive surge in coronavirus cases.
[The omicron variant may cause milder symptoms. But the experts still do not breathe easy]
In September, COVAX dropped its initial goal of delivering 2 billion doses by the end of 2021, reducing it to 1.4 billion.
We have denounced rich countries for hoarding vaccines and manufacturers for not giving priority to COVAX "
Aurelia Nguyen, CEO of COVAX
"We have denounced rich countries for hoarding vaccines and manufacturers for not giving priority to COVAX, which represents a failure of multilateralism, not COVAX," said Aurelia Nguyen, general director of the organization.
But the WHO and Gavi have avoided criticizing their major donors, even as they began vaccinating children and boosting healthy adults, despite WHO's call to prioritize the world's poor.
The WHO position on the reinforcements could change depending on what is known about the new omicron variant.
A doctor fills a syringe with the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine donated through the COVAX program, at a vaccination center in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Sunday, July 11, 2021. Rahmat Gul / AP
Gavi argued that an increase in the vaccine supply in late 2021 would save its goals.
The hope was that rich countries would end their immunization campaigns by the end of 2021 and send more doses to the rest of the world.
That did not happen.
"It has not been admitted how badly they calculated things"
The effort to administer the booster vaccines was the first obstacle, although it is not clear that it will prevent the objectives from being met.
Rich countries pledged to donate 1.2 billion doses by mid-2022
, and data from mid-October from analytics firm
Airfinity
showed those donations could be shipped this year, without affecting local supplies.
Manufacturers are now looking at developing second-generation vaccines to deal with the variants.
Airfinity
noted that at best, it means stopping current vaccine production and waiting until late 2022 for a global rollout.
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"It has not been admitted how miscalculated things were,"
said Kate Elder, Senior Advisor for Vaccine Policy at Doctors Without Borders.
He explained that a significant part of the COVAX doses depend on donations, rather than the agreements with the pharmaceutical companies that were in place in 2020.
Wealthy countries, such as Britain, Canada, Germany, among others, signed agreements with drug manufacturers to reserve most of the limited supply of the COVID-19 vaccine, excluding COVAX.
Meanwhile, donations keep pouring in.