Why has Ukraine decided to reinforce its military fleet?
2:48
(CNN) -
New US intelligence findings estimate that Russia could begin a military offensive in Ukraine in a matter of months, as it mustered up to 175,000 troops along the border, an alarming escalation that President Joe Biden warned that it could have serious consequences.
The latest developments come after months of steady increases along the Russia-Ukraine border that have alarmed US and Western officials, sparking tense talks between US diplomats and their counterparts.
ANALYSIS |
Satellite photos show a buildup of Russian military on the border with Ukraine and raise tensions
CNN reported on Friday that Russian forces have capabilities along the border with Ukraine to carry out a swift and immediate invasion, including the construction of supply lines such as medical units and fuel that could sustain a protracted conflict, should that Moscow decides to invade.
Authorities said current levels of equipment stationed in the area could supply front-line forces for seven to 10 days and other support units for up to a month.
The intelligence findings, first reported by the Washington Post and described by a government official, say Russia could begin the offensive "as early as early 2022" with 100 battalion tactical groups, which is twice the scale of forces that Russia amassed in the region last spring.
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Half of those units are currently near the Ukrainian border, according to intelligence.
The official said the determination was based on images from the last month.
Is Russia preparing to invade Ukraine?
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US Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville said Saturday that "between 95,000 and 100,000 Russian soldiers" were at the Ukraine border.
"I don't know what they're going to do. But I'm very concerned about their position, and it's in the news," McConville said, speaking on a panel at the Reagan National Defense Forum.
"That gives the Russians a lot of options, and I'm not really sure what they're going to do. But to me, that's terrible ... It's going to have a terrible impact on the stability and security of our European friends, and for I have serious concerns about that. "
The McConville statement is believed to be the first official acknowledgment of troop level reporting by the US military.
ANALYSIS |
Russian forces are concentrating on the border with Ukraine.
Be it a feint or not, Putin plays with fire
The buildup has spurred planning for a phone call next week between Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin.
When asked leaving the White House Friday night about the intelligence findings, Biden expressed deep concern.
"We have been aware of Russia's actions for a long time," he said while on his way to Camp David.
"My expectation is that we will have a long discussion with Putin."
Intelligence also suggests that Russia has suddenly established a reserve of contracted troops that would be mobilized in the event of a Ukrainian offensive.
In addition to the military build-up, intelligence suggests a campaign of Russian influence aimed at denigrating Ukraine's leaders and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which has been warning against a Russian offensive.
"Recent information also indicates that Russian officials proposed adjusting Russia's information operations against Ukraine to emphasize the narrative that Ukrainian leaders had been installed by the West, harbored hatred for the 'Russian world' and acted against interests. of the Ukrainian people, "the government official said.
On Friday, Biden warned he would make it "very, very difficult" for Putin to undertake military action in Ukraine, describing "the most comprehensive and meaningful set of initiatives" to prevent the Russian leader from going ahead with an invasion.
US officials said they could include new sanctions, including against wealthy Russians in Putin's inner circle, and increased military assistance to Ukraine.
US Says "Will Not Tolerate" Russia's "Reckless and Dangerous" Anti-Satellite Missile Test
A spokesman for the National Security Council, discussing the latest intelligence, said the United States is "deeply concerned by the evidence that Russia is intensifying its plans for meaningful military action against Ukraine."
"The Biden Administration has been consistent in our message to Russia: America does not seek conflict, and the best way to avoid a crisis and a negative spiral in the broader relationship is through diplomacy and de-escalation," the spokesperson said. of the NSC.
Speaking in Parliament on Friday, Ukraine's defense minister described Russia using waves of military build-ups as a tactic, racking up its troops near Ukraine's borders and then withdrawing them to their permanent bases, leaving equipment behind, reducing the time needed. for deployment.
In April and September of this year, Russia currently withdrew more than 50 battalion tactical groups to our borders.
41 battalion tactical groups are ready for combat in Ukraine and temporarily occupied Crimea.
Of these, 33 remain permanently and eight have been further transferred to Crimea.
The total number of troops in Russia, as well as in the temporarily occupied territories, that can be used for escalation, is now estimated at 94,300 people, "Oleksii Reznikov said.
CNN's Matthew Chance, Jim Sciutto, Natasha Bertrand, and Sarah Fortinsky contributed to this report.
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