Like an air of déjà vu.
Seven years after Russia's annexation of Crimea, Ukraine once again finds itself at the heart of diplomatic tensions.
For several weeks, Russian forces have continued to mass near the Ukrainian border, as satellite images have revealed, raising fears of an invasion of the country by the Kremlin.
If the threat is not new, this time it seems to take a more serious turn: up to 175,000 soldiers are being deployed on the Russian side, according to American documents released on Friday.
We take stock.
Read also Does Russia have the means to invade Ukraine?
What has happened in the last few days?
Russian forces have continued to deploy in recent weeks along the border between the two countries, especially in the Donbass, under the ever more worried eye of Kiev.
Russia would even be ready for a possible military "escalation" at the end of January, predicts the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, Oleksiï Reznikov.
Satellite images revealed the extent of troops located in various locations in the Russian countryside.
To date, 115,000 troops are said to be distributed around Ukraine, as well as in Crimea and in the territories under separatist control.
But does Russia really intend to invade its neighbor?
"Russian intentions are not clear," admitted NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who nonetheless underlined an "unusual concentration of forces for the second time this year".
Where are the soldiers concentrated?
Already numerous, Russian troops will continue to expand their ranks: up to 175,000 men should be deployed as early as next year, the Washington Post said on Friday, citing US intelligence documents. In detail, Moscow would prepare to launch "100 battalions composed of tactical groups with an estimated strength of 175,000 men, as well as tanks, artillery and other equipment", confirmed a senior American official under cover of 'anonymity.
According to the Post, the troops are concentrated 250 km from the long border and are partly established in the middle of the Russian countryside, in the towns of Boevo, Ielnia, Persianovka and on the Ukrainian base of Novofedorivka, west of the Crimea.
Already last week, Russian units present in the regions of Bryansk and Smolensk, in the north of Ukraine, were "reinforced with tanks and armored vehicles", indicated the Ukrainian Minister of Defense.
Why this threat?
The intimidation from Moscow would serve above all to dissuade NATO from any rapprochement with Ukraine. Because a possible membership of Kiev in the Alliance would be perceived as an affront to the Kremlin, underlines Anna Colin Lebedev, lecturer in political science at the University of Paris Nanterre, specialist in post-Soviet societies. "NATO's membership and aid are considered by Moscow as a red line that must not be crossed for the countries which are close to it," recalls the academic.
Likewise, the use by Ukraine of drones manufactured in Turkey, itself a member of the military alliance, would have been perceived as an additional "provocation" by Moscow, which perceives NATO as a direct threat to its security. .
These tensions at the border are part of "a geopolitical tactic", and not on the ground of a conflict only Russo-Ukrainian, nuances the specialist.
“Ukraine is a tool that first of all allows Vladimir Putin to influence the United States.
But there is nothing between Russia and Ukraine that can justify such a military deployment, ”insists Anna Colin Lebedev.
What possible outcome?
Last spring, Russian troops had already been deployed near the border, before Moscow retreated after a few weeks. Could Russia extend the balance of power this time around? "An invasion seems unlikely, the objective is once again to intimidate, but not to attack," says Anna Colin Lebedev. If Vladimir Poutine wishes to maintain his influence over his former satellite countries, he would have "nothing to gain" by invading his neighbor. In addition to the economic sanctions to which the Russian head of state is exposed, an invasion would be even less profitable for him at home.
“The people will never support such military action.
Besides, invading Ukraine would have nothing to do with Moscow economically.
From a political, economic and social point of view, a Ukrainian annexation would be a pure loss ", sums up the professor, who adds however that Russia" has already distinguished itself by its impulsiveness, in terms of foreign policy ".
Proof that the dialogue is not broken, Russia has said it hopes for "contact" between its Russian president and his American counterpart Joe Biden "in the coming days".
The beginnings of a de-escalation?
“It still seems too early to tell the university judge.
Above all, if the tensions can calm quickly in Ukraine, the confrontation between Washington and Moscow more profound, risks, it, to be redeployed on another ground, in Europe as elsewhere ”.
