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[01 Weekly Editorial] The threat of variant virus reappears as politicians can’t help but cure the root cause

2021-12-05T12:16:11.238Z


At the end of November, South Africa notified the World Health Organization of the discovery of a new variant of the new coronavirus with a large number of spike protein mutations. Experts estimate that it may bypass the existing immune network and cause a new wave of infections. The WHO will


At the end of November, South Africa notified the World Health Organization of the discovery of a new variant of the new coronavirus with a large number of spike protein mutations. Experts estimate that it may bypass the existing immune network and cause new infections. The WHO listed it as "worthy of attention." Variations" and named "Omicron" in Greek letters.

In the absence of data, no one can clearly grasp how much damage Omicron will cause.

Some experts worry that it may repeat the peak of the epidemic caused by Delta at the beginning of this year, and some believe that Omicron's fatality rate may be lower.

However, just as at the beginning of the new crown epidemic, some experts thought that the virus did not pose much threat, and the results were obvious to all.


After nearly two years of tossing, countries did not dare to underestimate the new variant virus strain.

Europe and the United States have recently blocked entry channels from South Africa and its neighboring countries. Japan has even "locked the country" to prohibit all foreigners from entering the country.

However, no matter how fast the customs clearance action is, the spread of the virus cannot be prevented. There have been confirmed cases of variant virus strains in North America and Europe.

The practice of blocking flights to and from Wuhan at the beginning of last year shows that the virus has often spread through various channels before the government notified it, and it is difficult to block the spread of the virus afterwards.

Cannot stop the coexistence of virus variants is tantamount to gamble

The problem is that "coexisting with the virus" is just a passive way to deal with the epidemic, only seeking to get through it at the moment, and not solving the problem from the root cause.

The new coronavirus is a volatile virus. As long as it continues to spread on a large scale around the world one day, it means that it has a chance to produce new mutations.

Every mutation may also be a lethal super variant.

Therefore, since Western countries such as Europe and the United States have chosen to accept "coexistence with the virus," they are destined to be unable to stop the invasion of variants and can only endure the unknown threat.

The global vaccination speed cannot keep up with the virus variants.

(Associated Press)

Even though Omicron may have a low fatality rate as some speculations have said, who can guarantee that there will be no next variant that is comparable to or surpasses Delta in lethality?

Even with the help of vaccines, because of the selfishness and short-sightedness of many advanced countries, "vaccine nationalism" is widespread, and the global vaccination rate is extremely uneven.

While the advanced western countries are all injecting the third shot, the average vaccination rate in Africa is only 6%.

The global vaccination speed cannot keep up with the virus variants, and the emergence of the next new virus strain is likely to happen sooner or later.

In the final analysis, the "coexistence with the virus" strategy is to optimistically hope that "the ship will go straight to the bridge." This is not far from the same as last year's US President Trump threatened that the virus would "disappear naturally" in the summer.

Of course, we cannot rule out the occurrence of miracles. The epidemic may naturally develop for the better. However, this kind of logic that is close to gambling can never be used to govern the country, and it is also irresponsible for human lives.

Dealing with problems but trying to cope will only lead to a dilemma

The emergence of Omicron has not only caused governments to face epidemic prevention problems, but also fell into economic policy dilemmas.

When US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attended the congressional hearing last Tuesday (November 30), he changed his previous "dovish" attitude towards inflation and the withdrawal of loose monetary policy, saying that it is time to give up "inflation is only temporary." The view of "sexuality" suggests that it may be necessary to speed up the pace of reducing debt purchases and even raising interest rates to control inflationary pressures.

This reflects that the inflation problem has exceeded the Fed’s expectations, to the point where it has to be controlled.

But at the same time, the U.S. economy has not yet emerged from the predicament of the epidemic, and the mutant virus strain may even cause a new wave of shocks. The Fed has no choice but to balance between raising interest rates to control inflation and continuing to release water to protect the economy.

However, no matter what the Fed controls the interest rate, its effect on solving the overall economic dilemma of the United States is also very limited.

Although monetary tightening can control inflation, the cause of this round of high inflation in the United States is not entirely due to the release of water.

The reasons for the overall increase in inflation are complex, including the new crown epidemic that has made workers unwilling to return to work, disrupting the industrial chain and pushing up wages; and the additional tariffs imposed by the United States on China since the 2018 trade war have begun to appear in inflation. superior.

Raising interest rates can have a short-term effect in exchange for time to improve the situation, but it is impossible to solve the problem itself.

For example, Turkey’s policy interest rate has been increasing from 8% in mid-2020 to a high of 19% at the beginning of the year. However, it still cannot change the reality of foreign capital flow and cannot prevent the collapse of Turkish lira prices and the result of high domestic inflation.

To put it bluntly, because the central bank is not a panacea.

At least since the financial tsunami, the United States has developed the habit of relying on monetary policy to deal with economic problems, but dealing with problems is not the same as solving problems.

The United States has never faced up to key issues such as the hollowing out of the industry, the insecure supply chain, and the inability to increase productivity. In the end, the Fed's release of water will only cover up the problem itself.

Politically, the United States has also been deeply involved in party disputes for many years and has not reached a consensus to carry out real economic reforms. It was only when Biden took office this year that he began to reflect on the problem.

The Fed’s current dilemma is actually the result of the US economy’s years of addressing symptoms and not the root cause.

Hong Kong should learn from the lesson to be problem-oriented

The development of variant virus strains and the interest rate in the United States may not only have a significant impact on Hong Kong, but the attitude of the European and American governments to deal with the problem itself is also worthy of vigilance by those governing Hong Kong.

In the face of the epidemic, Western countries have had enough time to deal with it, and they can even make up their minds to pursue "zero clearance." However, most governments are unwilling to respond early and delay until the epidemic has repeatedly erupted before trying to fix things.

It also seems that the economic problems in the United States have affected the whole body. Under partisan politics, policies can only be written on the surface for a long time. No one has ever dared to make up their minds to touch the "big pie" of vested interests and only bury the beauty of the crisis. It is called the economic cycle.

If the problem is not solved fundamentally, and only short-sightedly coping with the superficial state of emergency, it will only accumulate hard to return and eventually lead to disaster.

To deal with social issues such as housing, the SAR government should also learn from the lessons learned by countries in dealing with the new crown virus and prescribe the right medicine.

(Photo by Luo Junhao)

Looking back at Hong Kong, various people in the political spectrum have been immersed in ideological disputes. They are not pragmatic and talk about freedom and democracy, or they are willing to be political vassals. They have never fundamentally solved Hong Kong’s economic and social problems.

The most obvious chronic illness of Shen Mei is the housing problem.

More than a decade after the financial tsunami, private property prices have been high, and the supply of public housing has not been able to meet the needs of most people.

In the past, the government dared not touch those with vested interests and only proposed minor repairs and supplements such as stamp duty and transitional housing. Politicians seldom stood up and provided blueprints to solve the problem.

As a result, when subdivided houses were infested, the government and the Legislative Council worked together to pass subdivided rental control, which seemed to be able to solve the urgent need, but in fact the fundamental core of the problem—housing as a basic need rather than a tool for speculation—has never been touched. .

There are also real problems such as public medical care, retirement protection, and industrial transformation. If the government only recruits overseas doctors, how can it hope that public hospitals can retain staff?

The authorities have repeatedly promoted the annuity plan, and have they ever thought that the grassroots are already struggling to live, and they simply don't have enough savings?

The chaotic situation of the demonstrations in 2019 showed that "paper cannot keep fire". The problem is so serious that it can no longer be dealt with vaguely and has to be addressed. However, if the people who govern Hong Kong do not have problem awareness and only start from the surface problems, it will only be like " "Coexisting with the virus" is also impossible to eradicate the problem, but we have to face the threat of variants over and over again.

President Xi Jinping has repeatedly emphasized that the practice of socialism with Chinese characteristics must be problem-oriented.

The so-called problem orientation refers to the need to carefully study and seek the core behind the superficial problems. It does not "heal the head only when the headache comes, and heal the foot only when the pain comes."

We often say that Hong Kong is faced with deep-seated structural contradictions. It is a deep-seated structure. Naturally, it must be dismantled layer by layer in a scientific and logical way to grasp the cause of the core problem.

The election of the new Legislative Council is coming soon. Many candidates are slogans of reform and change. The government authorities also call on the public to "vote for Hong Kong for themselves," but change cannot be just slogan chants.

We sincerely hope that all politicians can break through ideological barriers, earnestly "take the pulse" for Hong Kong, lead Hong Kong's comprehensive reforms, and solve problems down-to-earth.

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2021-12-05

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