Biden faces litmus test in call with Putin on Ukraine

How far would the US go to protect Ukraine from Russia 2:08

(CNN) -

US President Joe Biden prepares for one of the most critical calls of his presidency on Tuesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This while receiving harsh warnings from the American intelligence community that Moscow is preparing to invade Ukraine next month.

Amid "deep concern" over Russia's plans for "significant military action against Ukraine," the president will not consider any of Putin's "red lines" on NATO expansion into Eastern Europe and will stop Clearly, the United States is prepared to respond to an invasion with sanctions and, if necessary, additional troops in Europe to reassure its nervous allies, a senior administration official told reporters on Monday.

When could Russia invade Ukraine?

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This has been the relationship between Biden and Putin

The call comes nearly six months after Biden first met Putin as president in Geneva, Switzerland, when he hoped to defuse tensions by finding areas where the United States and Russia could cooperate, such as cyber security and gun control. strategic. The two leaders have a long history, and Biden has explicitly said that he does not hold Putin in particularly high regard.

After a meeting with Putin in 2011, then-Vice President Biden said he looked Putin in the eye and declared, "I don't think you have a soul."

During an interview in March, Biden called Putin a murderer, saying the Russian leader will "pay a price" for his efforts to undermine the 2020 US elections. And while the June summit was cordial, recent escalations by the Russian military show that the meeting did not produce the kind of "stable and predictable" relationship the United States hoped for.

• ANALYSIS |

  Satellite photos show a buildup of Russian military on the border with Ukraine and raise tensions

The relationship took a dramatic turn last month when US officials began raising the alarm about irregular Russian military movements near the border with Ukraine.

Russian movements on the border

Russia has mustered nearly 100,000 troops near the border, Gen. James McConville, the US Army chief of staff, said last weekend, and has also built supply lines in the area, such as medical units and fuel. that could fuel a protracted conflict, sources told CNN.

A US intelligence assessment found that Russia may be preparing to invade next month with as many as 175,000 troops from positions near Ukraine's southern, western and northeastern borders.

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Officials report a "significant increase" in Russian disinformation operations that characterize the Ukrainian government as illegitimate.

They have also shared with senior Ukrainian officials evidence that Russia, through the FSB, the successor to the KGB, is engaging in destabilizing activities within Ukraine to foster dissent against the administration of President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Why Russia has eyes on Ukraine again 2:07

Senior administration officials say that Biden, who handled the Ukraine issue as Barack Obama's vice president and has made half a dozen trips to the country, is realistic about what he can accomplish directly with Putin.

Sight penalties

But in Biden's view, any conversation is better than silence, and he believes Putin responds to frankness and force.

When he sits down in the White House Situation Room Tuesday to take the video call, he plans to lay out in detailed terms the ways he would punish Russia if an invasion progresses.

Those sanctions include "substantive economic countermeasures" aimed at inflicting "significant and severe economic damage to the Russian economy," the senior official said, in coordination with European allies.

In an exclusive interview with CNN's Matthew Chance, Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov urged Biden to stand firm with Moscow.

"If I can advise President Biden, I would like him to tell Mr. Putin that there should be no red lines on the Kremlin's side. The red line is here in Ukraine and the civilized world will react without hesitation," Reznikov said.

"The idea of ​​not provoking Russia will not work," he added.

What will Putin do?

Despite the military escalations, it is still unclear whether Putin has made a final decision to invade Ukraine. Some officials have speculated that the troop buildup could be a way for Russia to take advantage of concessions from the West. Putin is expected to demand that Biden offer a binding guarantee that he "will exclude any further expansion by NATO eastward and the deployment of weapons systems that threaten us in the territories of neighboring countries, including Ukraine," he told reporters. Putin's foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov.

However, when asked on Monday about such Russian demands, the senior administration official said: "We do not believe that talking about red lines is useful and, as the president has said, we are not going to operate according to that logic. to accept anyone's red lines. "

Meanwhile, many American officials believe that Russia is only using the NATO invasion discussions as an excuse to attack Ukraine, knowing that Biden and other Western officials will not accept Putin's demands.

• ANALYSIS |

  Russian forces are concentrating on the border with Ukraine.

  Be it a feint or not, Putin plays with fire

"Our concern is that Russia may make a serious mistake in trying to repeat what it undertook in 2014, when it accumulated forces along the border, crossed into sovereign territory of Ukraine and did so on the false claim that it was provoked," said the secretary of State Antony Blinken earlier this month, referring to the Russian invasion of Crimea.

Moscote: Russia does not want NATO to protect Ukraine 2:28

Blinken spoke with Zelensky on Monday and Biden will speak with Zelensky in the coming days to inform him about the call with Putin, the official said.

Possible answers

The United States and its European and NATO allies have been weighing a series of measures to deter a Russian attack, including sending military advisers and new weapons to Ukraine. The United States is also taking steps to plan additional US troop deployments to Europe on NATO's eastern flank to help reassure allies of continued US support, the senior official said.

"I think I could anticipate that in the event of an invasion, the need to reinforce the confidence and assurances of our NATO allies and our allies on the eastern flank would be real. And the United States would be prepared to provide that reassurance," she said. person. "We are working through prudent planning of what we would have to do in the event of such an escalation and how we would have to ensure the safety of our NATO allies in that context."

New "aggressive" sanctions are also being considered against members of Putin's inner circle and Russian energy producers, people familiar with the discussions said.

The new economic sanctions could target a variety of sectors, including power producers, Russian banks and Russia's sovereign debt, the people said.

There is also serious discussion about turning off Russian power producers in debt markets should they invade Ukraine, a senior US official told CNN.

Why has Ukraine decided to reinforce its military fleet?

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"We have put together a pretty aggressive package," said another senior US official.

This person added that the United States warned Russia that if it invades Ukraine, the United States and Europe together will impose the worst economic sanctions ever imposed on a country, outside of Iran and North Korea.

Option "nuclear"

Officials are also considering isolating Russia from the SWIFT international payment system should it progress with an invasion, the sources said, but that would be a "nuclear" option.

For some Ukrainians, the possible measures are not enough.

An adviser to Zelensky told CNN that imposing sanctions only after Russia moves to invade would be futile, and that at least some sanctions should be imposed preemptively in order for Russia to back down.

"Kiev's view is that any possible sanction in the event that Putin invades has already been considered by Moscow and provides a deterrent value close to zero," the adviser said.

"However, imposing heavy sanctions now, with roll-back provisions built in should Russia take real steps to reduce escalation, has a chance to work."

CNN's Kevin Liptak, Zahra Ullah, and Anna Chernova contributed to this report.

Vladimir Putin